Who is likely to be the next Pope?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fiducia supplicans and its fallout have probably disqualified Fernandez and Ambongo, at least until and unless the overall atmosphere in the Church changes drastically--Fernandez because he wrote the declaration, which has provoked even more intra-Church backlash than could have been expected; Ambongo because in his capacity as the President of SECAM he ended up leading a lot of that backlash and recently articulated it in outright campist terms that people who agree with him on homosexuality will probably find disconcerting as it pertains to other subjects. It's a shame, because Ambongo seemed and still seems like a really interesting and promising figure if only some sort of geas could be cast on him to stop him saying or writing the words "homosexuality" or "Putin" ever again.

[patzer]

I have to say I know very little about the internal politics of the Vatican but would Dieudonné Nzapalainga be a strong candidate? Experienced as a cardinal but also young, hasn't been partisan regarding the big issues dividing the church, focuses on opposing war in his country.

[jojoju1998]

I have to say I know very little about the internal politics of the Vatican but would Dieudonné Nzapalainga be a strong candidate? Experienced as a cardinal but also young, hasn't been partisan regarding the big issues dividing the church, focuses on opposing war in his country.

He doesn't seem to speak Italian so.....

[jojoju1998]

Fiducia supplicans and its fallout have probably disqualified Fernandez and Ambongo, at least until and unless the overall atmosphere in the Church changes drastically--Fernandez because he wrote the declaration, which has provoked even more intra-Church backlash than could have been expected; Ambongo because in his capacity as the President of SECAM he ended up leading a lot of that backlash and recently articulated it in outright campist terms that people who agree with him on homosexuality will probably find disconcerting as it pertains to other subjects. It's a shame, because Ambongo seemed and still seems like a really interesting and promising figure if only some sort of geas could be cast on him to stop him saying or writing the words "homosexuality" or "Putin" ever again.

It's probably going to be at this rate a lower level Vatican curial figure. Cardinal Mamberti. Cardinal You Heung Sik.

[Tintrlvr]

I think people are looking too much at those who could have been chosen instead of Francis back in 2013. No one in their late 70s is likely to be elected pope next time around, and certainly no one 80 or older at the time of the election, which rules out a large portion of the names being discussed.

Assuming the next papal election is still likely somewhere between 5 and 15 years away, you should be looking at younger cardinals, or even in some cases those who are not yet cardinals at all, for papabile. No one currently older than 70.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think people are looking too much at those who could have been chosen instead of Francis back in 2013. No one in their late 70s is likely to be elected pope next time around, and certainly no one 80 or older at the time of the election, which rules out a large portion of the names being discussed.

Assuming the next papal election is still likely somewhere between 5 and 15 years away, you should be looking at younger cardinals, or even in some cases those who are not yet cardinals at all, for papabile. No one currently older than 70.

Francis was 77. Ratzinger was 78. It's probably the most geriatric job in the world.

Like we hear so much about how Biden is too old, but he's 6 years younger than Francis, who people are expecting to be around more than four more years.

[Tintrlvr]

I think people are looking too much at those who could have been chosen instead of Francis back in 2013. No one in their late 70s is likely to be elected pope next time around, and certainly no one 80 or older at the time of the election, which rules out a large portion of the names being discussed.

Assuming the next papal election is still likely somewhere between 5 and 15 years away, you should be looking at younger cardinals, or even in some cases those who are not yet cardinals at all, for papabile. No one currently older than 70.

Francis was 77. Ratzinger was 78. It's probably the most geriatric job in the world.

Like we hear so much about how Biden is too old, but he's 6 years younger than Francis, who people are expecting to be around more than four more years.

This doesn't contradict what I said. 77 and 78 5+ years from now means at the latest early 70s now, or late 60s if you think Francis might be around for close to a decade. And they were both unusually old for newly elected popes, not by a huge margin, but fairly so.

Sure, if you expect Francis to keel over this year, bet on candidates who are over 75. But not if you think he has a fair amount of time left. And while certainly illness could fell someone in their late 80s at any time, Francis is quite spry overall with no obvious health problems, and the life expectancy of an 87-year-old man is still 92 on average (in the US, but that's pretty generalizable), higher if you are in overall good health and higher still if you have access to unlimited top quality healthcare, as Francis does.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Assuming the next papal election is still likely somewhere between 5 and 15 years away

That's not the going assumption though.

[LabourJersey]

I think people are looking too much at those who could have been chosen instead of Francis back in 2013. No one in their late 70s is likely to be elected pope next time around, and certainly no one 80 or older at the time of the election, which rules out a large portion of the names being discussed.

Assuming the next papal election is still likely somewhere between 5 and 15 years away, you should be looking at younger cardinals, or even in some cases those who are not yet cardinals at all, for papabile. No one currently older than 70.

Francis was 77. Ratzinger was 78. It's probably the most geriatric job in the world.

Like we hear so much about how Biden is too old, but he's 6 years younger than Francis, who people are expecting to be around more than four more years.

This doesn't contradict what I said. 77 and 78 5+ years from now means at the latest early 70s now, or late 60s if you think Francis might be around for close to a decade. And they were both unusually old for newly elected popes, not by a huge margin, but fairly so.

Sure, if you expect Francis to keel over this year, bet on candidates who are over 75. But not if you think he has a fair amount of time left. And while certainly illness could fell someone in their late 80s at any time, Francis is quite spry overall with no obvious health problems, and the life expectancy of an 87-year-old man is still 92 on average (in the US, but that's pretty generalizable), higher if you are in overall good health and higher still if you have access to unlimited top quality healthcare, as Francis does.

Francis has had quite a lot of health issues (a hernia, pnuemonia, difficulty with mobility, not to mention missing part of a lung).

I very much respect Francis but I don't think he will be Pope 5 years from now (especially because I wouldn't be that shocked if he chooses to abdicate himself if he reaches very poor health - no one wants another JPII situation)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fiducia supplicans and its fallout have probably disqualified Fernandez and Ambongo, at least until and unless the overall atmosphere in the Church changes drastically--Fernandez because he wrote the declaration, which has provoked even more intra-Church backlash than could have been expected; Ambongo because in his capacity as the President of SECAM he ended up leading a lot of that backlash and recently articulated it in outright campist terms that people who agree with him on homosexuality will probably find disconcerting as it pertains to other subjects. It's a shame, because Ambongo seemed and still seems like a really interesting and promising figure if only some sort of geas could be cast on him to stop him saying or writing the words "homosexuality" or "Putin" ever again.

Ambongo's standing within the global Church looks weaker and weaker as it turns out that not all of the African bishops' conferences feel that he adequately represents or speaks for their stances on them there homosexuals. Conversely, the stock of African cardinals who share Ambongo's position on this but haven't been as outspoken about it might rise among those who want a departure from Francis on moral and pastoral matters.

[jojoju1998]

Fiducia supplicans and its fallout have probably disqualified Fernandez and Ambongo, at least until and unless the overall atmosphere in the Church changes drastically--Fernandez because he wrote the declaration, which has provoked even more intra-Church backlash than could have been expected; Ambongo because in his capacity as the President of SECAM he ended up leading a lot of that backlash and recently articulated it in outright campist terms that people who agree with him on homosexuality will probably find disconcerting as it pertains to other subjects. It's a shame, because Ambongo seemed and still seems like a really interesting and promising figure if only some sort of geas could be cast on him to stop him saying or writing the words "homosexuality" or "Putin" ever again.

Ambongo's standing within the global Church looks weaker and weaker as it turns out that not all of the African bishops' conferences feel that he adequately represents or speaks for their stances on them there homosexuals. Conversely, the stock of African cardinals who share Ambongo's position on this but haven't been as outspoken about it might rise among those who want a departure from Francis on moral and pastoral matters.

At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised, if a random curial figure as I said is chosen as the next pope.