European Parliament elections, June 2024

[MRCVzla]

Spain: PSOE has confirmed who Deputy PM and Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera will be the lead candidate on the party' European elections.

In other parties, after the Basque regional election results, IU finally accepted the 4th place within Sumar' EP list who will be occupied by current MEP Manu Pineda, the list will be lead by Estrella Galán, current general director of the Spanish Commission for Refugee Assistance (CEAR), 2nd for the list is reserved to the catalan Comuns (former MP Jaume Asens), the 3rd for the valencian Compromís (designed by internal primaries) and Más Madrid getting the 5th. As everybody knows, Podemos is running alone with former Equality Minister Irene Montero seeking to get more than one seat.

Any news yet by PP' list, most likely Dolors Montserrat will lead again and probably integrate some former Cs members on it, speaking of Cs, former MP Juan Carlos Girauta will be at Vox' list after current MEPs Jorge Buxadé (party' deputy leader) and Hermann Tertsch meanwhile Jordi Cañas will try to keep Ciudadanos in the EP. On the nationalist camp, ERC MEP Diana Riba is leading the "Ara Republiques" list along again with EH Bildu and BNG, now enforced with the Balear Ara Més (former Compromís/Sumar ally), 2nd of that list will be catalan public regional broadcaster' weatherman Tomás Molina. With Puigdemont focus to return to Catalunya, the other Junts MEP Toni Comín is seeking reelection, whereas the PNV-led list is headed by a "new face", former Bilbao councilor Ohiane Agirregoitia. Among the extraparliamentary parties or new platforms trying to get representation it's getting some noise one with a controversial right-wing influencer and unfamous fake news spreader Alvise Pérez as well other ones also trying to cater the UPyD/Cs-liberal-centrist-unionist space like Izquierda Española or La Tercera España, also the España Vaciada localist movement has showed their intention to run as well.

Coalitions who want to run have until Friday to be registered, on the same day the Catalan regional election campaign starts.

[Storr]

Greece: Ruling party New Democracy has chosen an imprisoned Greek Albanian mayor-elect to run on their EU election list in June. Fredi Beleri was jailed on a two year sentence for vote buying in the Himarë, Albania mayoral election. Because he's an ethnic Greek in Albania, he's become a cause célèbre among Greek nationalists. This is an obvious attempt by New Democracy to counter (or tap into, if you're more cynical) the far right/nationalist rise in Greece.

"Beleri was elected mayor of Himarë, a bastion of the ethnic Greek community, in the May 14 local elections last year. He was arrested only two days earlier while allegedly offering 40,000 Albanian leks ($390 at the time) to buy eight votes.

Ultimately, Beleri beat the Socialist candidate Jorgo Goro by 19 votes. He could not be sworn in while under arrest. His supporters insist he is a victim of a political trap set by Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists. It’s a notion that Rama himself has dismissed as “delusional.”"

"Athens has been pressing Tirana for his release and for him to be sworn in even if this happens in jail, but so far to no avail.

Albania’s suspicions about Beleri run deep, often asserting he was involved with an irredentist militant terror network. In 1995 — the year after an attack that killed two Albanian soldiers — he was arrested and sentenced in Greece to three years on probation for complicity over the possession of weapons."

In classic Balkan fashion:

"In the meantime, Goro, the mayor of Himarë, was also arrested in April on corruption charges. He had been accused by Beleri of producing fake documents to obtain government land and create a resort. Blerina Bala from the Socialist group has been appointed acting mayor."

https://www.politico.eu/article/greece-government-eu-election-wild-card-albania-jail-fredi-beleri/

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Intercampus to CM/Negócios newspapers and CMTV:

Vote share %: (after 17.5% of undecideds are excluded and compared with 2019)

33.4% PS (nc)
28.2% PSD/CDS/PPM (+0.1)
13.0% CHEGA (+11.5)
  7.4% BE (-2.4)
  5.8% Livre (+4.0)
  4.4% IL (+3.5)
  3.3% CDU (-3.6)
  1.3% PAN (-3.8 )
  3.3% Others/Invalid (-9.2)

Poll conducted bewteen 18 and 23 April 2024. Polled 605 votes. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Parties and coalitions on the ballot in Portugal:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology, European group

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing, none
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing, GUE/NGL
CH - CHEGA, far-right, ID
E - Rise Up, far-right, none
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right, Renew
L - Livre, center-left, Greens/EFA
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, left-wing, none
MPT - Earth Party, center-right, EPP
NC - We, the Citizens, center-right, Renew
ND - New Right, rightwing, none
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left, Greens/EFA
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing, GUE/NGL
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - AD - Democratic Alliance, center-right, EPP
PS - Socialist Party, center-left, S&D
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left, none
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic, none
VP - Volt Portugal, center-left, Volt Europe

[MRCVzla]

Italy: Multiple national leaders will run in almost all constituencies. PM Giorgia Meloni will be the list holder for FdI in all constituencies, encourages express a preference on her and calls the European election as a "plesbcite" on her government. In "response", Azione' Carlo Calenda is also running along with former Minister and MP Elena Bonetti, and just in, SUE' Emma Bonino confirmed what Matteo Renzi will be also running as the last on the list in 4 constituencies.

Also likely running in all constituencies for the Lega is Salvini' personal bet, the controversial army general Roberto Vannacci, who has several xenophobic/homophobic/sexist views, after his candidacy was confirmed he say there should be "separate classes for disabled peoples" and called Mussolini "an statist", such an HP, Vannacci' candidacy hasn't well received within the Lega with critics by Minister Giorgetti or regional presidents Zaia or Fedriga, who encourages their voters to express a preference on local Lega candidates on their lists.

On minor parties collecting signatures to be on the ballot, Santoro' Pace Terra Dignita' says they collected enough signatures to run in all constituencies meanwhile Rizzo/Toscano' DSP only collected enough signatures in 2 constituencies, they begged and reunited with Meloni to reduce the number of signatures needed, but seems they got rejected.

Greece: 31 parties/coalitions are authorized by the Supreme Court to run in the European election, 14 were excluded as they failed to collect a 20k euros' fee to participate as well other requirements, among that, the Court has officially banned the far-right Spartans party, determinates what convicted Ilias Kasidaris is the actual leader of the party and will be a trial for voter fraud against Kasidaris and the party' 11 MPs after the election on June 19, as well an impeachment process for the MPs (but that's more a domestic issue to be treated in their own topic). More than 202k voters  from 128 countries are registered to postal voting abroad, an 280% increase respect to last year' national elections.

[Helsinkian]

The Finns Party have dropped one of their current MEPs, Teuvo Hakkarainen, as a candidate. The party hasn't given a reason, but he has had a fair share of controversies, and it's unclear how much actual work he's done in the parliament.

On the last day of nominations, Hakkarainen retaliated by accepting the nomination of Freedom Alliance, a fringe far-right party that got 1% in last year's parliamentary election.

He won't be elected (he would have to quadruple his votes from 2019) but he can still do damage to the Finns Party.

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Denmark for Altinget + DR

The Moderates drop significantly, and would not get a seat with such a result. Much is attributed to lead candidate Stine Bosse's migration mess. The centre-left alliance is so far moving in the direction I expect, i.e. declining slightly combined and with SPP getting very close to Social Democrats in percentage terms. The sixth seat for the centre-left alliance is now the most marginal of the 15 Danish seats on 6.17%, although with a gap of around 0.5% to another seat for the Renew alliance. And it's only just that the Social Democrats take that seat instead of SPP (5.0% vs 4.9%).

I expect SPP to end up very close to Social Democrats, and if Villy Søvndal play the large role expected, I'm not ruling out SPP as biggest party and Søvndal as lead vote getter. I certainly think that if the alliance ends up with 6 seats, it will be 3-3 rathern than 4-2 Social Democrat.

The treshold for getting a seat for the single parties (Red-Green, DPP, Denmark Democrats) in this poll is around 5.7%. So in this poll, they all three get a seat.

Social Democrats 20.1% 4 seats
SPP 14.6% 2 seats
Alternative 2.3% 0 seats

Liberals 11.2% 2 seats
Social Liberals 7.0% 1 seat
Moderates 4.5% 0 seats

Liberal Alliance 12.0% 2 seats
Conservatives 6.8% 1 seat

Denmark Democrats 8.1% 1 seat

Red-Green Alliance 6.9% 1 seat

DPP 6.5% 1 seat

[Mike88]

Portugal: AD and PS reject TV's proposal for 28 debates.

The two main parties have rejected the networks proposal of 28 one-on-one debates between parties for the EP elections. Both AD and PS say that time for the debates and campaign events don't match and asked networks for a new proposal, plus that 30 minute debates is not a solution. Other parties are criticizing both parties for the rejection of this format.

[MRCVzla]

Spain: European election poll by SigmaDos (El Mundo)
PP-EPP: 35.7% (23)
PSOE-S&D: 28.9% (19)
VOX-ECR: 11.9% (7)
Sumar-G/EFA|LEFT: 9.5% (6)
AR-G/EFA|LEFT: 4.1% (2)
Podemos-LEFT: 3.1% (2)
Junts-NI: 2.0% (1)
CEUS-RE: 1.8% (1)

Tomorrow is the deadline to submit lists, only doubts are mostly in Sumar who's still seeking the 6th on the list, as incumbent MEP María Eugenia Rodríguez-Palop is not running, Compromís elected Vicent Marza as the 3rd, Más Madrid member at 5th will be Andere Nieva and former MEP Florent Marcellesi from Verdes Equo is the 7th. In Vox after the Buxadé-Tertsch-Girauta combo will be former MP Mireia Borras and MEP Margarita de la Pisa as 4th and 5th, the 6th will be Jorge Martín Frías, a director of a party-linked foundation named "Disenso".

Now the big ones, both PP and PSOE have been revealed their lists. PP lists include 3 ongoing Ciudadanos MEPs with their brief party leader Adrián Vásquez (who resigned bc he was more favourable to merged Cs with PP) within top 10, the list will be closed by writer Fernando Savater, related to the UPyD/Cs unionist sphere. PSOE rescues Leire Pajín, former minister under Zapatero as the 8th, some internal riffs in Andalucía, Aragón or Castilla y León about the formation of the list and the rejection of certain candidates designed by those federations.

Following the seats projected by SigmaDos poll, there are the PP and PSOE lists:
PP-EPP
1. Dolors Montserrat (MEP)
2. Carmen Crespo (member of the Andalusian regional government)
3. Alma Ezcurra (Madrid Assembly MP)
4. Esteban González Pons (MP and party Deputy Secretary, MEP until the 23J GE)
5. Fernando Navarrete (economist, chief staff of the governor of the Bank of Spain)
6. Javier Zarzalejos (MEP)
7. Rosa Estarás (MEP)
8. Francisco Millán Mon (MEP)
9. Pilar del Castillo (MEP, former Minister)
10. Adrián Vásquez (MEP, former Cs leader)
11. Gabriel Mato (MEP)
12. Raúl de la Hoz (party spokeperson in the Castilla y León Cortes)
13. Esther Hernanz (former MEP)
14. Juan Ignacio Zoido (MEP, former Minister)
15. Susana Solís (MEP from Cs)
16. Pablo Arias (MEP)
17. Antonio López-Isturiz (MEP)
18. Isabel Benjumea (MEP)
19. Borja Giménez Larraz (son of a former PP leader in Aragón murdered by ETA, advisor to MEP Zarzalejos)
20. Elena Nevado del Campo
21. Nicolás Pascual de la Parte (former NATO Council ambassador)
22. Maravillas Abadía
23. Eva Poptcheva (MEP from Cs)
24th is Carlos Iturgaiz (Basque PP leader).

PSOE-S&D:
1. Teresa Ribera (Deputy PM and Minister of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge)
2. Iratxe García Pérez (MEP and President of the S&D Group)
3. Javi López (MEP, PSC quota)
4. Hana Jalloul (MP and former Madrid Assembly MP)
5. Javier Moreno (MEP)
6. Lina Gálvez (MEP)
7. Jonás Fernández (MEP)
8. Leire Pajín (former Minister)
9. Cesar Luena (MEP and former party Secretary of Organization)
10. Idoia Mendia (ongoing Deputy Lehendakari in the Basque government)
11. Nicolás González Casares (MEP)
12. Cristina Maestre (MEP)
13. Juan Fernando López Aguilar (MEP)
14. Sandra Gómez (former Deputy Mayor of Valencia)
15. Nacho Sánchez Amor (MEP)
16. Laura Ballarín (MEP)
17. Marcos Ros (MEP)
18. Rosa María Serrano (Senator for Huesca and former delegate of the Government)
19. Elena Sancho (Navarrese quota, local councilor in Ribaforada)
20th is José Cepeda (Madrid Assembly MP) and 21st is Balearic MEP Alicia Homs.

[Logical]

Danish election questionnaire thingy
https://www.altinget.dk/kandidattest/EU24

Swedish version
https://valkompass.svt.se/eu-2024/

German edition
https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/europawahl2024/app/main_app.html

Dutch
https://stemwijzer.nl/en/
https://eu.kieskompas.nl/nl/

Finland
https://www.vaalikone.fi/euro2024/hs

[M0096]

Poland (my projection):
PiS [ECR] - 18 seats (-9)
KO [mostly EPP] - 18 seats (+4)
TD [EPP/RE] - 9 seats (+6)
Konfederacja [ID/NI] - 4 seats (+4)
Lewica [S&D] - 4 seats (-4)

Leaders of lists in every constituency:

1 (Pomerania) likely composition: KO - 1 (-1), PiS - 1 (nc)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Anna Fotyga (MEP, former minister of foreign affairs)
KO - [PO-EPP] Janusz Lewandowski (MEP, former european commisary of budget)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Wioleta Tomczak (member of Sejm)
Konfederacja - [NN-NI] Przemysław Wipler (member of Sejm, carpetbagger from Warsaw suburbs)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Katarzyna Ueberhan (member of Sejm, carpetbagger from Poznan)

2 (Kuyavia-Pomerania) likely composition: KO - 1 (nc), PiS - 1 (nc)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Kosma Złotowski (MEP)
KO - [PO-EPP] Krzysztof Brejza (MEP, former member of Sejm and Senator)
TD - [PSL-EPP] Ryszard Bober (Senator)
Konfederacja - [KKP-ID] Sławomir Ozdyk
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Piotr Kowal

3 (Podlachia & Warmia-Masuria) likely composition: PiS - 1 (-1), KO - 1 (nc), TD - 1 (+1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Maciej Wąsik (former deputy minister of Interior, convicted of abuse of powers, carpetbagger from Warsaw)
KO - [PO-EPP] Jacek Protas (deputy minister of regional politics)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Paweł Zalewski (deputy minister of defence, carpetbagger from Warsaw)
Konfederacja - [RN-NI] Piotr Lisiecki
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Bożena Przyłuska

4 (Warsaw & Warsaw's suburbs) likely composition: KO - 2 (nc), PiS - 1 (-1), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 1 (-1), Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Małgorzata Gosiewska (former deputy marshal/speaker of Sejm)
KO - [PO-EPP] Marcin Kierwiński (minister of interior)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Michał Kobosko (member of Sejm)
Konfederacja - [RN-NI] Krystian Kamiński (former member of Sejm, carpetbagger from Zielona Góra)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Robert Biedroń (MEP, co-leader of Lewica)

5 (Masovia except Warsaw metropolitan area) likely composition: PiS - 1 (-1), KO - 1 (+1), TD - 1 (nc)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Adam Bielan (MEP)
KO - [PO-EPP] Andrzej Halicki (MEP)
TD - [PSL-EPP] Bożena Żelazowska (deputy minister of culture and national heritage)
Konfederacja - [KKP-ID] Rafał Foryś
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Anna Maria Żukowska (parliamentary club leader)

6 (Łódź) likely composition: PiS - 1 (-1), KO - 1 (+1), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 0 (-1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Witold Waszczykowski (MEP, former minister of foreign affairs)
KO - [iPL-NI] Dariusz Joński (member of Sejm)
TD - [PSL-EPP] Jolanta Zięba-Gzik (member of Sejm)
Konfederacja - [NN-NI] Jacek Wilk (former member of Sejm, carpetbagger from Warsaw)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Marek Belka (MEP, former prime minister)

7 (Greater Poland) likely composition: KO - 2 (+1), PiS - 1 (-1), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 1 (-1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Wojciech Kolarski (presidential minister, carpetbagger from Lesser Poland)
KO - [PO-EPP] Ewa Kopacz (MEP, former prime minister, carpetbagger from Masovia)
TD - [PSL-EPP] Krzysztof Hetman (minister of development and technology, former MEP, carpetbagger from Lublin)
Konfederacja - [RN-NI] Anna Bryłka (deputy leader of Ruch Narodowy/National Movement)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus (deputy minister of culture and national heritage, carpetbagger from Kuyavia-Pomerania)

8 (Lublin) likely composition: PiS - 1 (-1), KO - 1 (+1), TD - 0 (-1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Mariusz Kamiński (former minister of interior, convicted of abuse of powers, carpetbagger from Warsaw)
KO - [PO-EPP] Marta Wcisło (member of Sejm)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Sławomir Ćwik (member of Sejm)
Konfederacja - [EC-NI] Mirosław Piotrowski (former MEP)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Agata Fisz (former mayor of Chełm)

9 (Subcarpathia) likely compostion: PiS - 2 (nc), KO - 1 (nc)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Daniel Obajtek (former CEO of Orlen, carpetbagger from Lesser Poland)
KO - [PO-EPP] Elżbieta Łukacijewska (MEP)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Elżbieta Burkiewicz (member of Sejm)
Konfederacja - [NN-NI] Tomasz Buczek
Lewica - [LR-NI] Wiktoria Barańska

10 (Lesser Poland & Holy Cross) likely composition: PiS - 3 (-1), KO - 2 (+1), TD - 1 (nc), Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Beata Szydło (MEP, former prime minister)
KO - [PO-EPP] Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz (minister of culture and national heritage)
TD - [PSL-EPP] Adam Jarubas (MEP, 2015 presidential candidate)
Konfederacja - [NN-NI] Konrad Berkowicz (member of Sejm)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Andrzej Szejna (deputy minister of foreign affairs)

11 ((Upper) Silesia) likely composition: KO - 2 (nc), PiS - 2 (-1), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 1 (-1), Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Jadwiga Wiśniewska (MEP)
KO - [PO-EPP] Borys Budka (minister of state assets, former leader of PO)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Michał Gramatyka (deputy minister of digital affairs)
Konfederacja - [RN-NI] Marcin Sypniewski
Lewica - [LR-NI] Maciej Konieczny (member of Sejm)

12 (Lower Silesia & Opole) likely composition: KO - 2 (nc), PiS - 2 (nc), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 1 (+1), Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Anna Zalewska (MEP, former minister of education)
KO - [PO-EPP] Bogdan Zdrojewski (member of Sejm, former minister of culture and national heritage, former mayor of Wrocław)
TD - [PL2050-RE] Róża Thun (MEP, carpetbagger from Lesser Poland)
Konfederacja - [NN-NI] Stanisław Tyszka (member of Sejm, carpetbagger from Warsaw)
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Krzysztof Śmiszek (deputy minister of justice)

13 (Lubusz & West Pomerania) likely composition: KO - 1 (nc), PiS - 1 (-1), TD - 1 (+1), Lewica - 0 (-1)
PiS - [PiS-ECR] Joachim Brudziński (MEP, deputy leader of PiS)
KO - [PO-EPP] Bartosz Arłukowicz (former MEP, member of Sejm)
TD - [UED-EPP] Michał Kamiński (Senator, carpetbagger from Warsaw suburbs)
Konfederacja - [RN-NI] Magdalena Sosnowska
Lewica - [NL-S&D] Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (MEP, former prime minister, carpetbagger from Podlachia)

[Mike88]

Portugal: AD and PS reject TV's proposal for 28 debates.

The two main parties have rejected the networks proposal of 28 one-on-one debates between parties for the EP elections. Both AD and PS say that time for the debates and campaign events don't match and asked networks for a new proposal, plus that 30 minute debates is not a solution. Other parties are criticizing both parties for the rejection of this format.

Debate "feud" resolved: There will be 7 debates and another one with minor parties with no representation.

13 May: PS vs AD vs IL vs Livre (SIC)

15 May: BE vs PAN vs CHEGA vs Livre (RTP1)

17 May: CDU vs BE vs IL vs Livre (TVI)

20 May: CDU vs PAN vs CHEGA vs IL (SIC)

21 May: PS vs AD vs CHEGA vs CDU (RTP1)

24 May: PS vs AD vs BE vs PAN (TVI)

28 May: PS vs AD vs BE vs CDU vs PAN vs Livre vs CHEGA vs IL (RTP1)

30 May: Minor parties debate (RTP1)

[Velasco]

The Official Gazette released yesterday the full list of the 39 parties and coalitions that will contest EP elections in Spain.

Spain elects 61 members in a single nationwide constituency, using proportional representation (D'Hondt) with no threshold. The parties and coalitions with more chances of winning seats (and their top candidates) are the following:

● PSOE (Teresa Ribera) - S&D
● PP (Dolors Montserrat) - EPP
● VOX (Jorge Buxadé) - ECR
● SUMAR (Estrella Galán) - Greens/EFA and GUE/NGL
● PODEMOS (Irene Montero) - GUE/NGL
● AHORA REPÚBLICAS: ERC, EH BILDU, BNG (Diana Riba) - Greens/EFA and GUE/NGL
● JUNTS (Toni Comin) - NI
● CEUS: EAJ-PNV, CC, GBAI (Oihane Agirregoitia) - EDP

The PP will incorporate some incumbent Cs MEPs in the list, while the remainder of Cs will contest the elections with Jordi Cañas as head of list

[Mike88]

Portuguese EP election voter compass survey by Expresso newspaper.

I got these results:

78% AD
75% PS
71% IL
68% PAN
67% CHEGA
58% Livre
54% BE
45% CDU

[Mike88]

CHEGA's (ID) main candidate, António Tânger Corrêa, goes "cuckoo bananas" and full conspiracy mode in an interview to a major newspaper:

https://twitter.com/glevycordeiro/status/1788896340002455921

For Chega's candidate, who retreads the most bizarre conspiracy theories, it is possible that the Jews were warned about September 11th. Oh! And 90% or 85% of the people who worked at the Twin Towers were Jewish, apparently.

In summary:

- The "Jews" were probably tipped on what would happen on 9/11;
- This because 85-90% of people working in the Twin Towers were Jewish;
- Emmanuel Macron is close to the "New World Order" because he worked for the Rothschild firm;
- Milosevic was actually a "nice guy" but the problem was his wife, adding that women are "complicated";

[Duke of York]

CHEGA's (ID) main candidate, António Tânger Corrêa, goes "cuckoo bananas" and full conspiracy mode in an interview to a major newspaper:

https://twitter.com/glevycordeiro/status/1788896340002455921

For Chega's candidate, who retreads the most bizarre conspiracy theories, it is possible that the Jews were warned about September 11th. Oh! And 90% or 85% of the people who worked at the Twin Towers were Jewish, apparently.

In summary:

- The "Jews" were probably tipped on what would happen on 9/11;
- This because 85-90% of people working in the Twin Towers were Jewish;
- Emmanuel Macron is close to the "New World Order" because he worked for the Rothschild firm;
- Milosevic was actually a "nice guy" but the problem was his wife, adding that women are "complicated";

This is what I like to call cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs crazy.

[Mike88]

Debate "feud" resolved: There will be 7 debates and another one with minor parties with no representation.

13 May: PS vs AD vs IL vs Livre (SIC)

First Portugal debate: Immigration and defense were the main topics.

The first debate for the EP elections in Portugal was held this evening between the head list candidates of PS, AD, IL and Livre, Marta Temido, Sebastião Bugalho, João Cotrim Figueiredo and Francisco Paupério, respectively. The debate started with the immigration situation in Portugal. AD accused the PS of giving up immigration policy to human traffic mafias, with the PS responding that the AD's accusations are "deeply demagogic and insincere". IL said that discussing immigration should not be taboo, accusing parties of using immigration only for political battle. Livre defended humanitarian corridors and inclusion programs in Portugal, pointing to the fiasco of the new border control agency, AIMA. All 4 parties candidates are open for new countries to enter in the Union, pointing that it's a "moral obligation" and an "issue of cohesion". On Defense, Livre says that the EU needs to prepare itself for a possible re-election of Donald Trump and an increase of climate refugees, while AD says that the EU should become a "cornerstone" of NATO and invest in weapons industry. The PS rejected the AD proposal, pointing that weapons are not as much of a priority as housing is. IL focused on Portugal's goal to increase defense spending. The possibility of former PM Costa becoming President of the European Council was also a topic, with only the PS defending this possibility, AD saying it's not the time to discuss it, IL against the idea and Livre saying that their EP group doesn't have a position on the matter.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Duplimétrica-IPESPE to TVI/CNN Portugal:   

Vote share %: (Compared with 2019)

34% PS (+1)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM (+4)
10% CHEGA (+9)
  9% IL (+8)
  3% BE (-7)
  3% CDU (-4)
  3% Livre (+1)
  1% PAN (-4)
  5% Others/Invalid (-8)

Poll conducted bewteen 6 and 13 May 2024. Polled 800 votes. MoE of 3.50%.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Metsola meeting with Meloni (who is the most significant far right leader in Europe) and Weber courting them too shows that the EPP may want to end the Grand Coalition in favour of a right-wing coalition. EPP also met with Le Pen to potentially discuss RN joining forces with them if the French "republican" right disintegrates with them. It won't happen I think but it shows how mentalities are changing.

Would almost certainly lead to some EPP parties leaving EPP

EDIT: Apologies for quoting a post from 2023...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://nos.nl/artikel/2521340-europese-liberalen-overwegen-schorsing-vvd-vanwege-samenwerking-met-pvv

European liberals consider expelling VVD because of cooperation with PVV on national level.

[Zinneke]

https://nos.nl/artikel/2521340-europese-liberalen-overwegen-schorsing-vvd-vanwege-samenwerking-met-pvv

European liberals consider expelling VVD because of cooperation with PVV on national level.

As if most EU "liberals" are not going to do exactly the same and pull their pants down for EPP, ECR and ID parties if it means being able to get their little ministries, have their jet setting "jobs" and pretend to be liberal. See also, Ciudadanos, MR-VLD (will be the first to crack), FDP (will almost certainly submit to AfD one day) and of course Macron, who is basically running an RN-lite program at this point anyway.

Anyway I did a little preview of the Belgian european lists. If you want to look at polling for EU elections you basically just look at the polling on the national level because Belgians vote for their regional and federal level on the same day as the EU, and are notoriously and understandably confused at which level does what and how to punish incumbents BUT there are still some split ticket phenomena like Défi voters at regional level voting MR at federal/European, and Belgians tend to follow EU ongoings more than most because they genuinely have an investment in it, and their media makes a considerable effort covering EU internal affairs compared to most other EU countries. The political parties though just treat it as another cow to milk.

As another reminder we effectively have 3 constituencies : the Dutch-speaking[12], Francophone[8] and Germanophone[1].

Francophonia list leaders:

MR (ALDE-RE) : We might as well start with MR because they will be the outlier of sorts in the EU elections and have had the most intrigue. Charles Michel, the EU Council President, was initially wanting to secure himself a nice EP gig knowing that he was inept at his Council job and on the way out. After a quite visceral media backlash, MR found themselves in a pickle and following some tense back and forth between the party president and Sophie Wilmes, they drafted in the ex-PM who boosted her image during the Covid crisis in Francophone Belgium while being heavily criticized in the Flemish media. Still, her ability to mobilize the media in Francofonia, being the first woman to lead anything of significance there and being the female equivalent of the ideal son-in-law, has led to a weird cult following, which should lead to MR siphoning a significant preference vote for her on their European list. The question is whether she is really going to take her MEP seat or not : Belgian parties often deploy popular politicians on their European list because it allows them to cover the entire Francophone constituency as opposed to being restricted in terms of area.

PS (S&D) : list leader is Elio Di Rupo. Another ex-PM, and also a TikTok-fanatic and Minister-President of Wallonia. A botox-ridden zombie who just won’t retire at the grand old age of 72 while others could take his place. He is like the dog-excrement on your shoe, Di Rupo is the definition of a political veteran, who has given up on his act of trying to clean the PS and instead wants to retire in the European Parliament. It seems like this isn’t another ploy to deploy a competent media performer across the Belgian spectrum, as Di Rupo seems to just be in full carelessness mode, regularly answering media questions with “I don’t particularly care about that issue, move on”. ALso on the PS list is Luc Hennaert, an ex-judge who is brave enough to call for legalization of cocaine and thinks prisons are counter-productive. Also ironic : he is seen as the sponsor of Marie Arena’s entire career, who has had her reputation shredded due to Qatarigate.


ECOLO (Greens/EFA) : Phillippe Lamberts, the co-President of the European Greens/EFA grouping, is retiring, leaving a significant gap in terms of media presence and also general “realo” green behaviour, as he was often seen even by ECOLO/green movement detractors both in Belgium and outside as a very astute parliamentarian with a knowledge of the key legislative battles and institutional make up. Replacing him is a “co-duo” [as is custom with the Greens] of list leaders : Saskia Bricmont, who is an incumbent MEP that focuses on the younger electorate’s core issues, and Olivier De Shutter, a respected Human Rights lawyer, more straight jacketed who gives off “burnt out gen Xer trying to capture the ex-hippies in Louvain-La-Neuve” vibes. Classic ECOLO combination you could say.


Les Engagés (EPP) : As part of their “rebranding” (that works on the gullible freckles Belgian voter, as long as you are treated as an establishment party), Les Engagés have decided to run more people from what they call “civil society and the real world(TM)”. They’ve put up Yvan Verougstraete, a guy who set up parapharmaceutical shops, ex-McKinsey, Vlerick all the standard almer meters. Of course they try to present him as a “fresh face” but he’s been a PSC member since 1994.


PTB (GUE-NGL) : Marc Botenga will lead the list in for the Marxist formation in Wallonia. He is seen as a capable media performer who hides the tanky-ism well compared to others in the party finding sophistric arguments over Ukraine, the EU geopolitical project, etc


Défi (likely ALDE or S&D) : Défi traditionally struggle in EU elections since their split from MR (most Défi voters in Brussels are more likely to vote for recognisable faces from the other traditional parties like Lamberts at ECOLO or MR). Their head of list is some horse trainer.

VOLT FR (Greens/EFA) : Volt are running candidates in Flemish, Germanophone and Francophone constituencies. In the francophone constituency they have a young British-Belgian consultant and College of Europe graduate, so basically as classic a VOLT candidate as you’d expect, and also another very young graduate-type.

Flanders :



N-VA (ECR - but flexible) : N-VA are running Johan Van Overveldt, a guy seen as being on the more libertarian wing of the party with an obsession over Chicago School, Ludwig von Mises, your usual grifter types…anyway he’s basically the latest N-VA “old schooler” who is rewarded for not being Johnny Come Lately to the N-VA hype, that is basically their MO in choosing who gets the EP head of list because its seen as a nice financial reward.


VB (ID) : Tom Vandendriessche is leading the list to renew his seat at the EP. He is instrumental in defining VB’s alliance with the Identity and Democracy party, and he is also sort of “rewarded” for being a an old Vlaams Blokker (Flemish nationalists in general look at Europe and don’t really know what to do with it)

Open VLD : Hilde Vautmans, a Commission VP, is leading the list as Guy Verhofstadt, the senior and internationally recognisable VLD MEP, retires. This will significantly harm VLD’s Europe score - Verhofstadt clearly attracted a personal vote last time, but then they should collapse completely across all Belgian levels such is the brazenness of their greed and arrogance over this last legislature.

CD&V (EPP) : Wouter Beke, yet another “let’s put him out to pasture” type move. He’s the former CD&V party president and a devout catholic with more left-wing economic views than the party but hard on social issues. If he’s offered a federal ministry he may leave his seat.

Groen (Greens:EFA) : Sara Mattieu - who inherited Petra de Sutter’s seat last round. A very technical MEP who appeals to the more white collar groen inner city voter (as opposed to the paranoid rural “Agalev was so much better” type) I guess.

Vooruit (S&D) : Bruno Tobback, it seems like the Belgian parties mostly decided to deploy people to these lists based on a function of “years in the party served * distance to the current president” . Bruno is the son of Louis Tobback and from the more “Blairite” wing of the Vooruit party as opposed to the Combrez-Rousseau-Depraete wing. He will still attract a personalist vote in places like Leuven due to his father I guess.

PTB/PVDA (GUE/NGL) : Rudi Kennes, a very visible union member during the Opel Antwerp closing, he will be highlighting the de-industrialisation of Europe as his number 1 issue in his campaign as opposed to GAZA GAZA ENOUGH ABOUT GAZA LET4S TALK ABOUT GAZA, which is…refereshing I guess?


Volt NL (Greens/EFA) : Sophie in ‘t Veld, a familiar name to Dutch and Eurocrats alike, will lead the Dutch-speaking VOLT list in Belgium, as part of a pattern of foreign nationals standing in their local electoral districts in order for VOLT to raise awareness of the need, in their views, for trans-EU lists. In ‘t Veld is a relatively high profile MEP who used to be a stalwart of D66 but left the party feeling they were not doing enough precisely to engage in pro-EU politics more overtly. Although rumours fly that she is rather difficult to work with and not necessarily a team player. Nevertheless this is sort of a mini-coup for Volt Belgium as she probably can mobilise Flemish voters who historically a) follow EU politics closer due to mediatic coverage more than any other constituency and b) vote for more overtly pro-European candidates at European level than they do at national level.




I don't know or care about the Germanophone lists.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from UCP-CESOP to RTP/Público newspaper:  

Vote share %: (Compared with 2019)

31% PSD/CDS/PPM (+3), 6/8 seats
30% PS (-3), 6/8
15% CHEGA (+14), 3/4
  6% IL (+5), 1/2
  5% BE (-5), 1
  5% Livre (+3), 1
  5% CDU (-2), 1
  1% PAN (-4), 0
  2% Others/Invalid (-11)

Poll conducted bewteen 13 and 18 May 2024. Polled 965 votes. MoE of 3.20%.

[Flyersfan232]

https://nos.nl/artikel/2521340-europese-liberalen-overwegen-schorsing-vvd-vanwege-samenwerking-met-pvv

European liberals consider expelling VVD because of cooperation with PVV on national level.

vvd fits better in the epp

[MRCVzla]

The most "interesting" issue in the last hours about the EP election are the internal movements within the far-right ID group, Le Pen and Salvini (and joined today by czech SPD' Okamura) have broke-up with AfD after his lead candidate Maximilian Krah did say on a interview: "I will never say that anyone who whore a SS uniform was automatically a criminal", Krah has already resigned from the AfD leadership and stopped his campaign (still remains as a "electable" candidate for now).
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1793236863659975156

Tomorrow is the Eurovision Debate in the Brussels' EP hemicycle. Attending the spitzenkandidats from EPP (von der Leyen), PES (Nicolas Schmit), Renew (EDP's renziani-macronista Sandro Gozi), EGP (Terry Reintke of the German Greens) and PEL (Walter Baier from the Austrian KPO). The conservative far-right is missing due to neither ECR and ID did not nominate any "spitzenkandidat".

On Election Twitter seems to be kind of popular this voting advice site EU&I, 30 questions and may give your likely preference in all 27 countries (plus the 3 Belgian linguistic constituencies): https://euandi.eu/

[lfromnj]

Lmao, they won't vote to expel until after the election .