European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Logical]

Dublin (4 seats) Count 17

Daly eliminated

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Results of the election in Bulgaria by electoral district:



GERB is affiliated with EPP and DPS with Renew. As for PP-DB, it's a coalition of parties with differenт affiliation. PP (founded in 2021) will join Renew, while DP is itself a coalition of two parties - DSB affiliated with EPP and DaB! which will also apply to join the EPP. As two of three presumably elected MEPs of PP-DB are from PP, while the third - Radan Kanev - is from DSB, the ultimate distribution of the PP-DB MEPs will be two for Renew and one for EPP.

The Socialist vote down to one-third of their result last time. Who picked up most of their voters?

[MayorCarcetti]

Not going to shed many tears about Daly, but Niall Boylan is not much better and probably going to cause just as much embarrassment (though maybe not an international level)

[Logical]

Not going to shed many tears about Daly, but Niall Boylan is not much better and probably going to cause just as much embarrassment (though maybe not an international level)

Doubt he'll be elected. It's most likely AOR. Green and Labor are usually very transfer friendly.

[GMantis]

Results of the election in Bulgaria by electoral district:



GERB is affiliated with EPP and DPS with Renew. As for PP-DB, it's a coalition of parties with differenт affiliation. PP (founded in 2021) will join Renew, while DP is itself a coalition of two parties - DSB affiliated with EPP and DaB! which will also apply to join the EPP. As two of three presumably elected MEPs of PP-DB are from PP, while the third - Radan Kanev - is from DSB, the ultimate distribution of the PP-DB MEPs will be two for Renew and one for EPP.

The Socialist vote down to one-third of their result last time. Who picked up most of their voters?

Probably mostly populist parties like Revival or Greatness (which entered the national parliament) as well as some breakaway fractions of the BSP. A large fraction of course simply didn't vote.

[Diouf]

Still a lot of tension in Renew after Hayer's proposal to exclude VVD, which of course has angered all the right-leaning liberal parties in the group. Would be strange if Hayer is not replaced as leader.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-mep-eu-parliament-valerie-hayer-renew-group-elections/

[Logical]

Final tally in Dublin is FG, FF, SF, LAB as expected. Green voters transferred heavily for Labour enabling them to win their first MEP since 2009.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not going to shed many tears about Daly, but Niall Boylan is not much better and probably going to cause just as much embarrassment (though maybe not an international level)

Doubt he'll be elected. It's most likely AOR. Green and Labor are usually very transfer friendly.

So long Daly you ******* ****

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

any chance Mick Wallace loses his seat too?

[Logical]

any chance Mick Wallace loses his seat too?

Too early to say. The last two seats will be a scrap.

[Logical]

The battle for the last 2 seats in Ireland South is extremely tight. Lab and SD transfers should favor O'Sullivan, the bulk of Gavan's votes to Funchion, and Mullins to other establishment candidates. The big question is where the far-right Blighe's transfers will go. In Dublin the far right's transfers were scattered but they generally favor anti establishment candidates and independents including Daly. Wallace needs a decent cushion to withstand transfers between establishment candidates at the later stages.

Count 11
Kelleher (FF): 96,786 (+1,381)
McNamara (IND): 64,761 (+2,170)
Wallace (I4C): 59,511 (+1,522)
NÍ Mhurchú (FF): 59,194 (+916)
------------------------------------------------------
Funchion (SF): 54,297 (+614)
O’Sullivan (GP): 51,290 (+714)
Mullins (FG): 37,950 (+738)
Blighe (IF): 34,836 (+1,725)
Doyle (SD): 25,725 (+472)
Punch (II): 25,221 (+1,712)
Gavan (SF): 24,623 (+514)
Hourigan (LAB): 24,211 (+319) Eliminated
Murphy (AÚ): 0 (-17,421)

Midlands-NW is quite boring in comparison. The top 5 appears to be secure. Gildernew will need a miracle to overcome Mullooly.

Count 12
Flanagan (IND): 84,665 (+1,809)
Carberry (FG): 77,205 (+259)
Walsh (FG): 76,491 (+657)
Cowen (FF): 75,594 (+266)
Mullooly (II): 61,888 (+1,479)
------------------------------------------------------
Gildernew (SF): 48,074 (+241)
Tóibín (AÚ): 46,447 (+2,806)
Chambers (FF): 46,424 (+224)
Blaney (FF): 31,850 (+154)
MacManus (SF): 31,387 (+342)
Casey (IND): 25,054 (+1,411)
McHugh (IND): 24,801 (+953)
Kelly (IFP): 20,885 (+3,572)
Hearne (SD): 19,279 (+77) Eliminated
Waters' (IND): 0 (-17,206)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1800826569914478725

The elected person for EKRE leaves after 2 days.

[Storr]

For what his words are worth (1 Reichsmark), Krah has said this:

"Maximilian Krah, the scandal-plagued Alternative for Germany MEP, told POLITICO that his party’s efforts to rejoin the Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament will be in vain.

“I will watch this attempt from an observer’s position,”  he said on the Berlin Playbook podcast. “I’m telling you right now, it will fail. After that, the cards will be reshuffled.”"

...

"Now, AfD party leaders hope the move to eject Krah from their delegation on Monday will prompt ID to reconsider.

Krah said he would not seek to join another far-right group on his own following his ejection from the AfD delegation.

“My colleagues believe that they have a better chance if they go without me,” Krah said. “And I think that’s a mistake, but I respect that.”"

[CumbrianLefty]

any chance Mick Wallace loses his seat too?

Yes please

[Logical]

Ireland South Count 14

Kelleher (FF): 100,832 (+1,054)
Funchion (SF): 71,350 (+15,750)
McNamara (IND): 67,507 (+851)
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 61,780 (+521)
------------------------------------------------------
Wallace (I4C): 61,668 (+1,121)
O'Sullivan (GP): 54,978 (+357)
Mullins (FG): 39,832 (+307)
Blighe (IF): 35,739 (+472)
Doyle (SD): 29,163 (+574)
Punch (II): 26,167 (+380) Eliminated
Gavan (SF): 0 (-25,521)

Impressive voting discipline (61% transfer rate) by Shinners puts Funchion well ahead of the chasing pack. Punch's transfers will likely be good for Blighe, Wallace and McNamara. Wallace still has a chance but it's going to be very close.

[Storr]

Ireland South Count 15

Kelleher (FF): 103,492 (+2,660)
McNamara (IND): 74,197 (+6,990)
Funchion (SF): 72,081(+731)
Wallace (I4C): 64,637 (+2,969)
------------------------------------------------------
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 63,540 (+1,760)
O'Sullivan (GP): 55,660 (+682)
Mullins (FG): 41,397 (+1,565)
Blighe (IF): 37,742 (+2,003)
Doyle (SD): 29,617 (+454) Eliminated
Punch (II): 0 (-26,167)

[Logical]

Ireland South Count 16

Kelleher (FF): 106,051 (+2,559)
Funchion (SF): 76,697 (+4,616)
McNamara (IND): 75,570 (+1,373)
Wallace (I4C): 67,146 (+2,509)
------------------------------------------------------
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 65,361 (+1,821)
O'Sullivan (GP): 63,335 (+7,675)
Mullins (FG): 42,831 (+1,434)
Blighe (IF): 38,265 (+883) Eliminated
Doyle (SD): 0 (-29,617)

Counting will resume tomorrow. Funchion and McNamara should be safe. The last seat remains a three way scrap. How much of the far right Blighe's transfers go to Wallace will be key.

[MRCVzla]

Ireland South Count 16

Kelleher (FF): 106,051 (+2,559)
Funchion (SF): 76,697 (+4,616)
McNamara (IND): 75,570 (+1,373)
Wallace (I4C): 67,146 (+2,509)
------------------------------------------------------
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 65,361 (+1,821)
O'Sullivan (GP): 63,335 (+7,675)
Mullins (FG): 42,831 (+1,434)
Blighe (IF): 38,265 (+883) Eliminated
Doyle (SD): 0 (-29,617)

Counting will resume tomorrow. Funchion and McNamara should be safe. The last seat remains a three way scrap. How much of the far right Blighe's transfers go to Wallace will be key.

Ireland South elects 5 seats this year btw.

As the Irish count transfers continues, some updates apart of EKRE or Reconquête internal crisis:
Bulgaria: List headers of GERB (Zhelyazkov) and DPS (co-party leader Chakarov) will stay in Sofia, also coming back to the National Assembly is outgoing MEP Iskra Mihaylova who had a major post within Renew group, that means the reelection of BSP dissident Elena Yoncheva who ran in DPS eurolists.
Latvia: Elected AS MEP Reinis Pozņaks announces he's joining ECR.

[Logical]

Ireland South elects 5 seats this year btw.

One FG is already elected in the first count.

[Logical]

Ireland South Count 17

Kelleher (FF): 107,834 (+1,783)
McNamara (IND): 83,702 (+8,132)
Funchion (SF): 81,268 (+4,571)
Wallace (I4C): 71,910 (+4,764)
------------------------------------------------------
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 66,198 (+837)
O'Sullivan (GP): 63,923 (+588)
Mullins (FG): 43,601 (+770) Eliminated
Blighe (IF): 0 (-38,265)

Wallace is almost done. He needed more than that to endure the incoming transfers to Ní Mhurchú from the FG and Green candidates.

[Farmlands]

any chance Mick Wallace loses his seat too?

Yes please

It's perplexing to me he considers himself a valiant left-winger while condemning the Mahsa Amini protests in favor of a government that conducted mass communist purges upon taking power. The Putin dissonance I've come to just expect at this point, but that's something else.

[Epaminondas]

Count 17 is over and Wallace is teetering on the edge.

Notice how of John Mullins's 43k votes, a full 29k were reallocated to non-FG candidates. This feels wrong.
Does this really mean his voters just really didn't like Seán Kelly (since they didn't rank him above or below), or were all those second-hand Kelly votes investigated and his 3rd votes were reallocated?

[Logical]

Ireland South Count 18

Kelleher (FF): 120,105 (+12,271) ELECTED
McNamara (IND): 86,757 (+3,055)
Funchion (SF): 82,315 (+1,047)
Wallace (I4C): 73,714 (+1,804)
------------------------------------------------------
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 72,523 (+6,325)
O'Sullivan (GP): 68,441 (+4,518)
Mullins (FG): 0 (-43,601)

Kelleher's surplus of 5,344 will be distributed first.

[Logical]

Count 18 is over and Wallace is teetering on the edge.

Notice how of John Mullins's 43k votes, a full 29k were reallocated to non-FG candidates. This feels wrong.
Does this really mean his voters just really didn't like Seán Kelly (since they didn't rank him above or below), or were all those second-hand Kelly votes investigated and his 3rd votes were reallocated?

When you're elected by reaching the quota, they stop counting and adding votes to your tally. This is mostly the 3rd, 4th or even lower preferences of Mullins voters.

[Epaminondas]

When you're elected they stop counting and adding votes to your tally. This is mostly the 3rd, 4th or even lower preferences of Mullins voters.

If someone ranked
1. Mullins
2. Kelly
3. O'Sullivan

who would get the vote on Count 17?