Italian Elections and Politics - 2023: Post-Berlusconism
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆:
The old thread turns exactly five years today and had reached precisely 80 pages, not to mention the obvious watershed moment that is the death of Berlusconi. For these reasons and with the blessing (sort of) of Antonio, here I am starting a new thread.
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆:
As a reminder, next Sunday the most overlooked region in the country (Molise) elects a new president. Also we now have multiple national polls taken since Berlusconi died and on average they show a small surge for Forza Italia.
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆:
The regional election in Molise turned out a disaster for the left, with Roberti beating Gravina by a 62-36 margin. Turnout was 48%. Forza Italia, which many were expecting to have a surge because of Berlusconi's recent death, had a solid result but not an exceptional one, getting 12%. Fratelli d'Italia was the most voted list. The Five Star Movement completely collapsed, getting far fewer votes than the PD (both the PD and the radical left improved over 2018, which is hilarious). Expect a lot of soul-searching about alliances next.
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆:
Now that we are outside the electoral season, it's time for something completely different.
Population trends by province from 2011 to 2021. Many of you will think "damn, look at the depopulation of the South". I think "damn, look at the depopulation of post-industrial areas in eastern Piedmont and Liguria" (roughly the area with the oldest median age in Italy, and thus the world). There is of course a component of internal migration in this, but places like Cagliari and Caserta suggest this happens to a large extent at a local and regional level, while Ragusa or Prato among others point to a significant effect from external migration.
Zinneke:
How long will the Schlein experiment last? If she gets her rear end handed to her in the European elections, will they still keep her for protracted nationwide elections?
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