Do you see any major shifts in the next decade?

[RINO Tom]

yeah, for people who spent a considerable amount of time debating politics, we can't predict jack.

And yet we LITERALLY talk about places that are trending a certain way as if they're already safe for that party, haha.

[OSR stands with Israel]

yeah, for people who spent a considerable amount of time debating politics, we can't predict jack.

And yet we LITERALLY talk about places that are trending a certain way as if they're already safe for that party, haha.

Yah if TrendsAreReal were around back then he would be talking about how anyone who doesnt believe GA would become even more safely Republican by the end of the 2010s and Michigan would become Safe D by the end of the 2010s are stuck in the past

[Suburbia]

yeah, for people who spent a considerable amount of time debating politics, we can't predict jack.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why did most people think Texas would not Trend even slightly Dem, I mean its pretty obvious Bush's margins in Texas was inflated due to him being from Texas so even if you take that inflated margin away then that would mean it would trend slightly D

[Agonized-Statism]

The only map acceptable to the forum:

I don't understand why we'll have any more elections, actually, since they will always be based on 2004 and how liberal-trending the west is.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

How are those West Virginia and Georgia predictions working out for you?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

How are those West Virginia and Georgia predictions working out for you?

West Virginia was wrong, Georgia did not begin trending D until much later than that post was made.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

As for your reasoning for Maine, that applies to every state except 3, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina, so it's hardly proof of a trend and is a perfect example of what I call the "trend line fallacy". There is no reason to expect a shift from one election to the next to continue indefinitely, for example despite the delusions of GOP hacks, West Virginia is certainly not going to keep voting from now on like it did in 2004.

And one look at our state legislature results (including in 2004, a generally good GOP year) doesn't give much evidence of Minnesota trending Republican (something the Republicans are beginning to realize. I heard about the "Republican trend" in Minnesota nonstop before 2004, not so much after that and no more after 2006.)

Truly, an Atlas elections genius.

No Republican has won a statewide election in Minnesota since that post.

How are those West Virginia and Georgia predictions working out for you?

West Virginia was wrong, Georgia did not begin trending D until much later than that post was made.

2016-2007=what again?

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, GA began trending D in 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, GA began trending D in 2008.

It’s shocking how little time GA was actually a Republican state as downballot it was Democratic until 2002 and Presidential since 2000(it was a swing state in the 90s).

[Skill and Chance]

Actually, GA began trending D in 2008.

It’s shocking how little time GA was actually a Republican state as downballot it was Democratic until 2002 and Presidential since 2000(it was a swing state in the 90s).

It is very possible that GOP dominance of certain Southern states will look like a brief historical anomaly looking back from say, 2050.

In Virginia, easily the most Republican leaning Southern state during the mid-late 20th century, Democrats still controlled everything at the state level as recently as 1993.  Republicans only had 4 total years of trifecta control, from 2000-2001 and 2012-13, and the latter time, they needed the Republican LG to break ties in the state senate!  At least VA Republicans had the 1968-2004 streak at the presidential level, and the early wins in 52/56/60.

In North Carolina, Republican control has only been from 2013-17 thus far and it voted for Obama in 2008, breaking the 1980-2004 streak.

Even in Texas, the Republican trifecta only dates to 2003 and could plausibly be broken with the 2020 (state house of representatives) or 2022 (governor) elections.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

(trend; red for GOP and blue for Dems; green =  no trend)

Image Link

No offense but that map is ridiculous. There's lots of reasons but I'll just give the most obvious for now: Georgia trending Democratic.

Top quality lmao, this is pure gold

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Look, I'm sure we can all agree the southwest is trending Democratic.

For the most part yes.

As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic

No, not at all. The results in Georgia over the past few years are the perfect example of why not, Georgia is trending HARD to the Republicans, and the gains are mostly in the fast growing areas. Take a look at the results in Forsyth County over time. That's actually why I found the map so amusing, Georgia is one of the fastest Republican trending states in the country and may soon be more Republican than Texas at this rate.

It's true in a few areas (like NOVA and parts of North Carolina), but hardly true at large.

(and less people in midwestern states should generally make them more GOP).

I have no clue where the idea behind this comes from.

hehe

[Libertas Vel Mors]

80% red = trending Dem. rapidly
40% red = trending Dem. slowly
gray = staying put
40% blue = trending Rep. slowly
80% blue = trending Rep. rapidly

my god this man got about every state wrong didn't he

[SingingAnalyst]

Gay, idyllic Vermont is trending deplorable (mainly due to its small population of ethnic minorities), and will decide an election for the GOP (a la Florida in 2000) in 2028 or earlier.

[QAnonKelly]

Latinos slowly but surely becoming more R

[iceman]

Latinos slowly but surely becoming more R

any evidence to that?

[538Electoral]

TX becoming a purple state.

WI, MI, PA all becoming likely R.