Mexican General Election, June 2, 2024

[wnwnwn]

I recently checked PVEM web page and not only they now have actual ecology stuff there, but also things like "Justice with gender perspective" and so on.

I know it isn't sincere but I'm surprised they even bother with the pivot to a "woke progressive party". I thought that everybody accepted the fact that they were a glorified corruption machine that would sell their grandma for a spot in a ruling coalition.

I think they are doing this because their ally MORENA pays lip service to this sort of stuff.  I am not sure for how long since the MORENA vote is trending more rural and more likely more socially conservative.  MORENA and now PVEM saying all this stuff is an attempt to retain some of the legacy MORENA urban vote.

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

[jaichind]

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

And the old rural machine PRI vote has mostly shifted to MORENA.  If MORENA implodes they could go back to PRI but that just seems less and less likely.

[Flyersfan232]

I recently checked PVEM web page and not only they now have actual ecology stuff there, but also things like "Justice with gender perspective" and so on.

I know it isn't sincere but I'm surprised they even bother with the pivot to a "woke progressive party". I thought that everybody accepted the fact that they were a glorified corruption machine that would sell their grandma for a spot in a ruling coalition.

I think they are doing this because their ally MORENA pays lip service to this sort of stuff.  I am not sure for how long since the MORENA vote is trending more rural and more likely more socially conservative.  MORENA and now PVEM saying all this stuff is an attempt to retain some of the legacy MORENA urban vote.

Mexico's polarizarion is now MORENA vs PAN and the PAN will always need social conservatives to have any possibility to win. Meanwhile, MORENA needs to get the youth vote to turnout for them. The PRD will continue losing support, and they will have to get those voters.

and mc?

[jaichind]

MORENA is still well ahead in the vote for the head of CDMX.
With MORENA turning into the new PRI CDMX would be the place where you should see some dropoff in MORENA support.  So far that does not seem to be the case. 

I suppose the PAN will win at Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, but areas like Iztapalapa are AMLO's base.

Poll of polls for the head of each section in CDMX

[warandwar]

MORENA is still well ahead in the vote for the head of CDMX.
With MORENA turning into the new PRI CDMX would be the place where you should see some dropoff in MORENA support.  So far that does not seem to be the case. 

I suppose the PAN will win at Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, but areas like Iztapalapa are AMLO's base.

Poll of polls for the head of each section in CDMX

This is basically a map of class, right?

[jaichind]

Different pollsters have very different results on who won the first debate

[Flyersfan232]

any possibility of runoffs becoming a thing?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

any possibility of runoffs becoming a thing?

I’d seen it discussed around the 2018 election, but AMLO won’t institute it as long as Morena has a hold on power without them.

[jaichind]

https://oraculus.mx/presidente2024/

Oraculus poll of polls for the Prez race right now have it at

MORENA-PVEM-PT      59
PAN-PRI-PRD             34
MC                             7

Sheinbaum loses a bit of ground from a couple of months ago

[jaichind]

Bloomberg's poll tracker has it at

MORENA-PVEM-PT      60
PAN-PRI-PRD             32
MC                             8

[jaichind]

MORENA could face a flip in Morelos's governor race.  Back in 2018, MORENA backed PES to win the gubernatorial race.  This time MORENA is expected to win but it seems PRI-PAN-PRD is running a MORENA rebel and looks like has recently gained the lead in polls against the MORENA-PVEM-PT candidate.

[Mike88]

I have been watching this race from afar. It's basically a foregone conclusion, isn't it?

[JM1295]

Kind of wild what little discussion this election has gotten on this forum, especially in comparison to other countries. Especially with these elections having implications on U.S, given México is one of our biggest trading partners and we share a border. Even if the presidential election is a foregone conclusion, there's still a lot of interesting things to watch out for, especially in Mexico City. The governors races in Jalisco, Puebla, CDMX, and Veracruz all look interesting/fun to follow for different reasons. AMLO's former Secretary of Energy running in Veracruz, seeing if CDMX will finally have a non-leftisy mayor  for the first time in its electoral history, and an unpredictable dynamic with a tight race between Movimiento Ciudadano, Morena, and the opposition in Jalisco. I dunno, just strikes me as odd and disappointing that there is very little interest in Mexican politics and elections when there is a lot changing as far as coalitions, dynamics, strongholds, etc. This is especially stark compared to UK local elections thread having double the amount of pages compared to a presidential Mexican election thread.

[The Mikado]

Kind of wild what little discussion this election has gotten on this forum, especially in comparison to other countries. Especially with these elections having implications on U.S, given México is one of our biggest trading partners and we share a border. Even if the presidential election is a foregone conclusion, there's still a lot of interesting things to watch out for, especially in Mexico City. The governors races in Jalisco, Puebla, CDMX, and Veracruz all look interesting/fun to follow for different reasons. AMLO's former Secretary of Energy running in Veracruz, seeing if CDMX will finally have a non-leftisy mayor  for the first time in its electoral history, and an unpredictable dynamic with a tight race between Movimiento Ciudadano, Morena, and the opposition in Jalisco. I dunno, just strikes me as odd and disappointing that there is very little interest in Mexican politics and elections when there is a lot changing as far as coalitions, dynamics, strongholds, etc. This is especially stark compared to UK local elections thread having double the amount of pages compared to a presidential Mexican election thread.

I mean, I follow this somewhat (Texas press is interested in developments in Mexico for obvious reasons) but this election is such a sleeper.

[wnwnwn]

Is there any possibility that the PAN wins?
I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals but they prefered to become an small actor in the MORENO-PRIAN battle.

[Logical]

It's the combination of a language barrier and Morena's dominance making Mexican elections less interesting than say, Argentine or Peruvian elections.

[jimros]

> I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals

I mean, do you have any reason to believe there is any demand for a party like this in Mexico?

[Flyersfan232]

We should try that one term only thing

[The Mikado]

We should try that one term only thing

Fun fact, the Confederate constitution had the exact same "6 year term with no option to run for reelection" system that Mexico does now. The Confederacy didn't last six years to actually try it out, of course.

[Flyersfan232]

We should try that one term only thing

Fun fact, the Confederate constitution had the exact same "6 year term with no option to run for reelection" system that Mexico does now. The Confederacy didn't last six years to actually try it out, of course.

we should have adopted that

[kaoras]

> I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals

I mean, do you have any reason to believe there is any demand for a party like this in Mexico?

There is but is covered by MORENA. I don't know why everyone acts like they are actually socially conservative when they have pushed for abortion rights and Sheinbaum is an outspoken LGBT+ and feminist advocate. As I mentioned even PVEM has gone "woke" to go along with the ride.

The actual space to be covered would be a "anti populist center left" and even that kind of party could have a decent niche if they were not allied with PRI/PAN.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

> I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals

I mean, do you have any reason to believe there is any demand for a party like this in Mexico?

There is but is covered by MORENA. I don't know why everyone acts like they are actually socially conservative when they have pushed for abortion rights and Sheinbaum is an outspoken LGBT+ and feminist advocate. As I mentioned even PVEM has gone "woke" to go along with the ride.

The actual space to be covered would be a "anti populist center left" and even that kind of party could have a decent niche if they were not allied with PRI/PAN.

Because in 2018 AMLO's coalition included a Christian conservative party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Encounter_Party

AMLO is still pretty awful regardless, especially with him bizarrely being one of the most Trump-friendly world leaders in addition to his PRI stylings, and Gálvez actually doesn't sound too bad at all and is barely "center-right". Shame this election is a foregone conclusion.

[DL]

Scheinbaum will not only be Mexico's first woman president but also its first Jewish president. Has that been an issue at all? Has she had to weigh in at all on the Gaza situation?

[kaoras]

> I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals

I mean, do you have any reason to believe there is any demand for a party like this in Mexico?

There is but is covered by MORENA. I don't know why everyone acts like they are actually socially conservative when they have pushed for abortion rights and Sheinbaum is an outspoken LGBT+ and feminist advocate. As I mentioned even PVEM has gone "woke" to go along with the ride.

The actual space to be covered would be a "anti populist center left" and even that kind of party could have a decent niche if they were not allied with PRI/PAN.

Because in 2018 AMLO's coalition included a Christian conservative party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Encounter_Party

AMLO is still pretty awful regardless, especially with him bizarrely being one of the most Trump-friendly world leaders in addition to his PRI stylings, and Gálvez actually doesn't sound too bad at all and is barely "center-right". Shame this election is a foregone conclusion.

I get that you don't know anything about Mexican politics outside hating AMLO but I find very funny that you are still up in arms about an empty shell of a party that had no influence whatsoever and no longer even exists but you have no problem supporting PAN, the actual ultra conservative party

https://tribunadequeretaro.com/informacion/aborto-queretaro-se-hunde-en-un-limbo-juridico-por-conservadurismo-del-pan/
https://www.sdpnoticias.com/mexico/pan-quiere-prohibir-la-venta-de-misoprostol-usado-para-el-aborto/
https://aristeguinoticias.com/0305/mexico/pan-bloquea-el-matrimonio-igualitario-en-tamaulipas/

You might notice that the ones pushing for the socially liberal stuff blocked by PAN are... MORENA deputies.

I'm any case, if you like Galves more power to you, because not even PAN own voters like her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

> I feel bad for the PRD, it could had become a moderate centre left party for social liberals

I mean, do you have any reason to believe there is any demand for a party like this in Mexico?

There is but is covered by MORENA. I don't know why everyone acts like they are actually socially conservative when they have pushed for abortion rights and Sheinbaum is an outspoken LGBT+ and feminist advocate. As I mentioned even PVEM has gone "woke" to go along with the ride.

The actual space to be covered would be a "anti populist center left" and even that kind of party could have a decent niche if they were not allied with PRI/PAN.

Because in 2018 AMLO's coalition included a Christian conservative party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Encounter_Party

AMLO is still pretty awful regardless, especially with him bizarrely being one of the most Trump-friendly world leaders in addition to his PRI stylings, and Gálvez actually doesn't sound too bad at all and is barely "center-right". Shame this election is a foregone conclusion.

I get that you don't know anything about Mexican politics outside hating AMLO but I find very funny that you are still up in arms about an empty shell of a party that had no influence whatsoever and no longer even exists but you have no problem supporting PAN, the actual ultra conservative party

https://tribunadequeretaro.com/informacion/aborto-queretaro-se-hunde-en-un-limbo-juridico-por-conservadurismo-del-pan/
https://www.sdpnoticias.com/mexico/pan-quiere-prohibir-la-venta-de-misoprostol-usado-para-el-aborto/
https://aristeguinoticias.com/0305/mexico/pan-bloquea-el-matrimonio-igualitario-en-tamaulipas/

You might notice that the ones pushing for the socially liberal stuff blocked by PAN are... MORENA deputies.

I'm any case, if you like Galves more power to you, because not even PAN own voters like her.

Gálvez is pro-choice, pro-LGBT, pro-marijuana legalization and generally pro-social welfare, definitely not as conservative as the rest of the PAN (is that why their voters don't like her? Makes sense.) Also in 2021 PAN's coalition partner included the PRD, more like supporting Gálvez who is not like those conservative PAN deputies and actually part of a broad coalition.

And not sure why one would be surprised over me hating AMLO considering how much of a Trump lover he is.