America is collapsing long term
Pres Mike:
I feel like American society is on the verge of irreversible collapse. Do I think we are on the verge of a failed state? No. But in the near future, America will not look like the country I grew up in. And our government seems unable or unwilling to do anything about it.
Yes, there are big problems like climate change and AI. But those can be discussed in other threads on this forum.
1. End of the American family : Life is too expensive now. Home ownership is out of reach for millions. Rents cost more than an entire month's salary, forget 30% of one's income. Greed controls our country. Instead of building new affordable homes, companies are only building McMansions for retiring boomers. Costs for everything from health insurance, child care, car payments, utilties are out of control.
The result? No one can afford to have kids. So people adopt cats and dogs. Culturally, people now view children as a burden not a blessing.
Long term, this is very bad. We need future taxpayers to fund the safety net. Seniors live longer and happier lives when they have family visit. Depression in seniors is linked to loneliness.
Look at Japan. The government is begging people to have kids.
2. Collapse of Public Education: I am a teacher. And its awful. 50% of teachers quit in their first five years. Yes, salary is a big part. But the number one reason teachers quit is the lack of discipline. Go on teacher blogs, subreddits, facebook groups and its all the same horror stories. We can't fail students. We can't remove students. We cant punish students. Its especially bad in urban school distrcits. Parents do not support nor believe teachers. They call us racists. They only want us to be babysitters.
The result? Many open positions. Students learning by computer. So no actual learning because of class disruptions. In the near future, we will have millions of students graduate with a 1st grade reading level and can not do basic math. How will they compete in the global economy? Sure, private school kids will be fine. The lilly white suburbs will be fine. The NAACP push to end the "school to prison" pipeline will only hurt the black community and other low income groups like hispanics and poor whites.
3. Desensitization to Crime: No, I am not defending Walmart. They do not pay their workers a fair wage and hurt small businesses. But millions of Americans do not care if someone loads up a shopping cart and walk out. I see this everyday. No one stops them. No one cares. DAs in cities like San Fran do not prosecute them. When a police officer tries to stop them, a dozen people will start shouting "police brutality" and demand the officer gets fired.
The result? More car break ins. More home invasions. These aren't usually someone's first crime. But shoplifting is a gateway to more serious crimes. Walmart closing in high crime areas, causing food deserts.
Huge swarths of our society do not trust police and would rather have a lawless society that accept that some people need to be arrested. Yes, there are bad cops and they need to be held accountable. But many people now see any police presense as police brutality. There was a video from a Chicago Walmart. Police were trying to break up a fight between several women. The officers were assulted several times. When they used pepper spray and tackled the women, a crowd gathered and started shouting at the officers for "brutality".
Soon vast swarths of our cities will not have a police presence and be lawless zones.
Conclusion
In 2050, our country will look very different. There won't be any kids anymore. Our country will be a lawless zone unless you live in a gated community and can afford private secuity when you go shopping. China is going to dominate the world and America won't be able to stand up to the CCP. Our seniors will be homeless because social secuirty won't be a thing and they won't have kids to help them. America won't be the super power anymore. But maybe AI and virtual reality will contiune our tech addiction and we won't notice the world around us anymore.
Crumpets:
One important consideration on your first point: immigration. Immigrants tend to be younger and have more children of their own. This was one of the big reasons Japan has floundered since the 80s - it has one of the lowest net migration rates of any post-industrial country and was unable to overcome the declining fertility rate that comes with high levels of economic development.
Pres Mike:
Quote from: 34 Counts of Crumpets on June 02, 2023, 06:49:17 PM
One important consideration on your first point: immigration. Immigrants tend to be younger and have more children of their own. This was one of the big reasons Japan has floundered since the 80s - it has one of the lowest net migration rates of any post-industrial country and was unable to overcome the declining fertility rate that comes with high levels of economic development.
I forgot to mention immigration in my post. Partly because I feel like the US has become very hostile to immgrants. I suspect a future Republican president will cut the number to zero.
Also, that map is misleading. Jordan has nearly doubled it population since 2007, almost entirely to Syrian migrants. Yet it has Jordan with a big number of negative migration
Minnesota Mike:
Wah wah wah things are so tough now. Newsflash, there has never been a better time to alive in this country. Medicine, tech, automobile safety and durability, availability of abundant and cheap food (relative to history), no major wars, crime way down from 50 years ago. Better racial, sexual preference, gender equality than we ever had. The country is not perfect but it's better than it's ever been and my guess is by 2050 it will be even better.
oldtimer:
It might or might not be.
You see what makes a country rich and strong is the following:
1.Cheap Raw Materials
2.Cheap Energy
3.Cheap Food
4.A technically educated workforce
5.Safe geographical spot
6.A system which alllows the use of all of the above to create wealth.
Only if a country has less of the above than it used to, it declines.
America was and is the top on all but a technically educated workforce (the germans are always no1 on that).
In the past Britain and Japan also had plenty of the above, but no longer.
If Australia had oil and more water it would have rivaled America in power and wealth.
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