UT-02: Stewart resigning

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/SchottHappens/status/1663599246116024321

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This could be interesting in that Utah is the “stronghold” of the anti-Trump Republicans. So we could see a bit of a proxy between DeSantis and Trump here

[Vosem]

This could be interesting in that Utah is the “stronghold” of the anti-Trump Republicans. So we could see a bit of a proxy between DeSantis and Trump here

Utah also just generically has weird dynamics (it's one of the few places where insider-y, establishment forces tend to be more Trumpist than primary voters -- see Trump falling flat in the 2016 primary even though state House Speaker Greg Hughes was known to support him). Stewart had been the subject of primary attempts from the left over the past few cycles, which were able to fundraise strongly but went absolutely nowhere.

The list of potential candidates here, especially in a special with the first round of the nomination process likely to happen by convention, is absurdly long: like conventions in other places UT conventions are also likelier to deliver victories for poorly-known candidates who might have good oratorical skills, or just candidates who can organize well among a few hundred delegates. The resignation here is out of nowhere and I don't think Stewart has any obvious successor waiting in the wings. (Of the three other members of Congress, Moore was totally unknown before launching his bid, Owens was a celebrity who had never run for office, and Curtis was a figure from municipal government whose affiliation to the GOP was questionable before his run. This could really go to anybody.)

[Hope For A New Era]

Trump +17 district. Least-R in Utah, because deplorable map is deplorable.

Map for reference.




Includes part of Salt Lake City (extremely D), some western suburbs (competitive, slowly moving left), some of Davis County (mildly R, rapidly moving left), an assortment of rural western and southern counties (extremely R, static), and St. George and Cedar City (both extremely R, static).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Will the Dems try to run with a semi-conservative independent here? Didn’t really work out in the Senate race though.

[Roll Roons]

Will the Dems try to run with a semi-conservative independent here? Didn’t really work out in the Senate race though.

It kinda did? Even though McMullin didn't win, it was still the closest Senate race in ages.

[Zedonathin2020]

Will the Dems try to run with a semi-conservative independent here? Didn’t really work out in the Senate race though.

It kinda did? Even though McMullin didn't win, it was still the closest Senate race in ages.

How close was McMullin in this district?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will the Dems try to run with a semi-conservative independent here? Didn’t really work out in the Senate race though.

It kinda did? Even though McMullin didn't win, it was still the closest Senate race in ages.

How close was McMullin in this district?

He lost 53-42 per Wikipedia.  UT-01 and -03 were closer (both 52-44 Lee).

[NewYorkExpress]

What Congressional District does McMullin live in? I imagine he might try and run in this special?

[Utah Neolib]

This is my district. Incredibly surprised by this, hadn’t heard anything about him having health issues. I am definitely hoping for a better Republican similar to Curtis to replace him as this district isn’t about to elect a democrat.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my district. Incredibly surprised by this, hadn’t heard anything about him having health issues. I am definitely hoping for a better Republican similar to Curtis to replace him as this district isn’t about to elect a democrat.

I did some digging and interestingly there are three state senators who voted against 2022’s Anti-Trans athletes bill that are republicans who live in this district. The most prolific, David Thatcher, has a history of being an advocate for LGBT causes, but unfortunately has suffered a series of strokes recently so I doubt he will run. Another, Evan Vickers is actually the current Majority Leader from the St. George area, but he is 69 so he could run but I find it unlikely.

Todd Weiler is likely the best (as far as The Gays) candidate for the district. He has a long history of supporting LGBT causes, and his senate district is entirely within the district. However, he has some more conservative views on things like pornography.

Edit; interestingly, I think of the State Senators who live in this district, only 1 voted For the anti-trans athlete bill

[Ferguson97]

His resignation will line up with David Cicilline's, so they'll "cancel each other out" so to speak.

(And interesting tidbit, Cicilline and Stewart share a birthday)

This is my district. Incredibly surprised by this, hadn’t heard anything about him having health issues. I am definitely hoping for a better Republican similar to Curtis to replace him as this district isn’t about to elect a democrat.

It's his wife who has the health issues.

[jamestroll]

Chris Stewart is not the worst person in the world, and when he won in 2012 his win for the nomination had some shenanigans. However, he never was really a tea party type Republican.

Curtis is my favorite of the Utah delegation.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Could either go further right or left. Unpredictable primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This district was "only" Lee + 11 in 2022.

I don't think Ds have much of a shot in the special election though; the quadrant of SLC are this takes in are some of the most Hispanic communities that have been relatively politically stagnant and tend to have poor turnout, especially in a special election.

If UT-Rs nominate a freedom-caucus type member here *maybe* this district could be a liability down the road, but for now it's fine.

[politicallefty]

This district was "only" Lee + 11 in 2022.

I don't think Ds have much of a shot in the special election though; the quadrant of SLC are this takes in are some of the most Hispanic communities that have been relatively politically stagnant and tend to have poor turnout, especially in a special election.

If UT-Rs nominate a freedom-caucus type member here *maybe* this district could be a liability down the road, but for now it's fine.

I don't think I've seen the 2022 Senate race broken down by CD. It isn't even easy to tell by looking at the map. They did a particularly nasty job cutting up SLC. UT-03 still looks like it's clearly the most Republican seat in the state. It's hard to tell with the others, though traditionally UT-01 is next most Republican seat after the Provo seat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This district was "only" Lee + 11 in 2022.

I don't think Ds have much of a shot in the special election though; the quadrant of SLC are this takes in are some of the most Hispanic communities that have been relatively politically stagnant and tend to have poor turnout, especially in a special election.

If UT-Rs nominate a freedom-caucus type member here *maybe* this district could be a liability down the road, but for now it's fine.

I don't think I've seen the 2022 Senate race broken down by CD. It isn't even easy to tell by looking at the map. They did a particularly nasty job cutting up SLC. UT-03 still looks like it's clearly the most Republican seat in the state. It's hard to tell with the others, though traditionally UT-01 is next most Republican seat after the Provo seat.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Utah:

CD1: 52-44 Lee
CD2: 53-42 Lee
CD3: 52-44 Lee
CD4: 56-40 Lee

[Pollster]

Becky Edwards, a moderate who challenged Mike Lee from the center in the 2022 primary and got 30% of the vote, intends to run.

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1664023221484806144?s=20

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Becky Edwards, a moderate who challenged Mike Lee from the center in the 2022 primary and got 30% of the vote, intends to run.

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1664023221484806144?s=20

probably the best Dems could conceivably hope for in this seat (I know she isn't a Dem, I'm just saying she's the most left of possible candidates who could win I feel). Considering she got a good amount of votes statewide against an incumbent, she might actually have a chance in the primary.

[Gracile]

Stewart plans to exit in September:

https://rollcall.com/2023/06/01/utah-rep-chris-stewart-eyes-september-exit/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Becky Edwards, a moderate who challenged Mike Lee from the center in the 2022 primary and got 30% of the vote, intends to run.

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1664023221484806144?s=20

probably the best Dems could conceivably hope for in this seat (I know she isn't a Dem, I'm just saying she's the most left of possible candidates who could win I feel). Considering she got a good amount of votes statewide against an incumbent, she might actually have a chance in the primary.

Getting 30% as a state representative against an incumbent Senator as a (relative) unknown politician is an impressive feat. She also has a history of ousting incumbents and winning at conventions against more conservative challengers. She’s someone to watch.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Becky Edwards, a moderate who challenged Mike Lee from the center in the 2022 primary and got 30% of the vote, intends to run.

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1664023221484806144?s=20

UUUGGGGHHH hope she doesn't win. She's basically Adam Kinzinger 2.0 and would be a permanent fixture on MSNBC.

[CelestialAlchemy]

Looks like Democratic State Senator Kathleen Riebe is running. She's fairly moderate, and probably insurance in case Republicans nominate a total whacko. My account is too new to link it (I was here before but forgot my account info) but it's noted on Wikipedia and in other sources.

[Sir Mohamed]

While I was always hoping for the narrow GOP majority to shrink, the circumstances here are sad.

The special election is pretty much Safe R.

[CelestialAlchemy]

While I was always hoping for the narrow GOP majority to shrink, the circumstances here are sad.

The special election is pretty much Safe R.

I think there's one Republican who could lose it, State Representative Trevor Lee, but he hasn't shown any indication of running.