Rate Wisconsin (Trump vs Biden)

[Zedonathin2020]

Tilt D, which equates to about Biden+1.5

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R.

[Crucial_Waukesha]

I said Lean D because I think Tilt D was the correct analysis for 2020, and I have a hard time imagining Trump doing better in 2024. Tilt D is a close second though, and I think the arguments about uncertainty this far out are compelling.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt lean, arguably almost lean D as of right now but we're just so far out.

While midterm results and the Supreme Court race aren't perfect indicators, they showed relatively straong performances from Dems overall, and mind you that was with Milwaukee proper having some very crappy turnout.

By "default" Biden should win it, unless Trump finds a way to squeeze out some more votes from rural WI, not only in driftless, but also the denser north and northeastern parts of the state. Given recent post-2020 results, I'm pretty sure both Madison and greater Milwaukee swing left, and Biden has potential in the Fox Valley.

I think one misconception I've seen about WI is that it's the most rural of the "big three". While this is technically true, it's not by as big of a delta as many here seem to suggest, and also WI rurals are just demographically different; scattered Native American populations and higher levels of educational attainment gives Dems a higher floor in these rurals than MI or PA.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The recent election results there probably point to Biden having the edge. So Tilt D.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tilt D. I'll go against (what I think is) conventional wisdom and say that it flips before Nevada

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt lean, arguably almost lean D as of right now but we're just so far out.

While midterm results and the Supreme Court race aren't perfect indicators, they showed relatively straong performances from Dems overall, and mind you that was with Milwaukee proper having some very crappy turnout.

By "default" Biden should win it, unless Trump finds a way to squeeze out some more votes from rural WI, not only in driftless, but also the denser north and northeastern parts of the state. Given recent post-2020 results, I'm pretty sure both Madison and greater Milwaukee swing left, and Biden has potential in the Fox Valley.

I think one misconception I've seen about WI is that it's the most rural of the "big three". While this is technically true, it's not by as big of a delta as many here seem to suggest, and also WI rurals are just demographically different; scattered Native American populations and higher levels of educational attainment gives Dems a higher floor in these rurals than MI or PA.

We won WI by 11 in April and won PA special it's a 303 map

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Tilt D. The midterm results, while not necessarily predicative, certainly did not suggest that the state is going the way of Missouri, which was a common take from 2017-2022.

I don't think the state was ever going to be Missouri, but maybe a Ohio-lite by the end of the decade was a decent prediction, but yeah, it doesn't seem the case, Wisconsin is still a little bit more favourable for democrats at the moment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D. The midterm results, while not necessarily predicative, certainly did not suggest that the state is going the way of Missouri, which was a common take from 2017-2022.

I don't think the state was ever going to be Missouri, but maybe a Ohio-lite by the end of the decade was a decent prediction, but yeah, it doesn't seem the case, Wisconsin is still a little bit more favourable for democrats at the moment

We won WI by 11 in April in the judge race

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Tilt D. The midterm results, while not necessarily predicative, certainly did not suggest that the state is going the way of Missouri, which was a common take from 2017-2022.

I don't think the state was ever going to be Missouri, but maybe a Ohio-lite by the end of the decade was a decent prediction, but yeah, it doesn't seem the case, Wisconsin is still a little bit more favourable for democrats at the moment

We won WI by 11 in April in the judge race

Judge races =/= presidential election

[Woody]

To everybody in thread, Biden won (supposedly) by little over half a point. It trended Republican that year, and with the PV most likely swinging to the right, conventional wisdom points to Trump winning the state. I would say the most likely pickups for Trump as of now are: WI>NV>PA>AZ>GA

[Radicalneo]

Toss up

[John Dule]

Tilt D. The midterm results, while not necessarily predicative, certainly did not suggest that the state is going the way of Missouri, which was a common take from 2017-2022.

I don't think the state was ever going to be Missouri, but maybe a Ohio-lite by the end of the decade was a decent prediction, but yeah, it doesn't seem the case, Wisconsin is still a little bit more favourable for democrats at the moment

We won WI by 11 in April in the judge race

Judge races =/= presidential election

True, although the issue on which the judge election was decided does not bode well for the Republicans in 2024.

[pbrower2a]

The most likely tipping-point state in the election, as in 2020.

Assuming that much the same dynamics operate in 2024 as in 2020 (ha, ha -- they won't), my best prediction is that Georgia and North Carolina flip.