If Biden wins reelection & the GOP underperforms in the 2026 midterms, what does the GOP do in 2028?

[Ferguson97]

Suppose that Biden wins re-election in 2024, while Democrats flip the House and lose the Senate. In 2026, Democrats very narrowly keep the House and flip back the Senate.

Where does the GOP go from there, following 5 consecutive election cycles losses? Would they moderate? Would their base allow it?

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

honestly, unless the leadership of the party changes, I think a schism is inevitable and if it hadn't happened by then, it would happen at this point. if they were rational, they'd moderate their views on things like abortion, LGBT issues, and climate change, and focus on their economic goals and get good local candidates who can address things like infrastructure and jobs. but acting in rational ways hasn't seemed to be the strong suit of the modern republican party. so they'll probably say a bunch of illegal immigrants showed up in drag to read Darwin and Marx to pre-schoolers and then gave them all ballots which were collected by Jewish Space Laser and counted towards the Democrats' vote totals.

[Vosem]

Suppose that Biden wins re-election in 2024, while Democrats flip the House and lose the Senate. In 2026, Democrats very narrowly keep the House and flip back the Senate.

Where does the GOP go from there, following 5 consecutive election cycles losses? Would they moderate? Would their base allow it?

This feels strange -- I think there are very few Democratic targets for Senate pickups in 2026 (I think Collins runs again in a Biden midterm and is unlikely to lose, so...maybe NC or TX? But those are quite red states!), and if they're flipping them they should be winning the House comfortably. If they're not, then there's some sort of realignment going on which is already answering the question of 'where does the GOP go from there'. (This answer kind of dodges the meat of your question, though).

As always with these sorts of questions, it depends on 'who votes in party primaries'. If the people voting in GOP primaries want the party to moderate, then it'll moderate. If they don't, then it won't. My guess is that over time people dissatisfied with a Democratic Administration will vote in GOP primaries and the party will become more acceptable to them, but this won't necessarily make it more moderate -- I think many people who joined the Republican party during the Obama Administration supported Trump in the 2016 primaries, who was moderate in some ways but very much not a moderate in other important ways.

The GOP had a 'Great Moderation' event in the 1952 cycle, but this was after 5 consecutive presidential defeats and only one clear-cut victory*, 1946, across the last 11 cycles, with 9 clear-cut defeats and one kind of arguable result (1942 was a Democratic trifecta but the GOP won the NPV so...eh). Also, 1952 was a really close nomination contest and a 'moderate' candidate who wasn't Eisenhower might've lost. At present, after the 2022 cycle, the last 5 presidential elections have broken 3-2 Democratic; across the last 11 cycles -- which is a really long time, 2002-2022 inclusive -- there've been 5 clear-cut Republican victories (2002, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2016) and only 4 clear-cut Democratic victories (2006, 2008, 2018, 2020). (2012 and 2022 are 'unclear' by this metric, though if forced to say I would code the former as a D win and the latter as an R win).

So I guess if New Deal-era history is any guide my guess is this would be nowhere near enough and in fact it would take several decades of this sort of thing (an exact analogy would be, between 2016 and 2040, there could only be two cycles as bad for Democrats as 2022) to force a moderation.

*Here defined as winning the presidency with a trifecta if it is on the ballot, and both houses of Congress if it is not.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Have we ever had a two-term president who TWICE avoided a bad midterm? I guess there's always a first.

[Tekken_Guy]

Suppose that Biden wins re-election in 2024, while Democrats flip the House and lose the Senate. In 2026, Democrats very narrowly keep the House and flip back the Senate.

Where does the GOP go from there, following 5 consecutive election cycles losses? Would they moderate? Would their base allow it?

This feels strange -- I think there are very few Democratic targets for Senate pickups in 2026 (I think Collins runs again in a Biden midterm and is unlikely to lose, so...maybe NC or TX? But those are quite red states!), and if they're flipping them they should be winning the House comfortably. If they're not, then there's some sort of realignment going on which is already answering the question of 'where does the GOP go from there'. (This answer kind of dodges the meat of your question, though).

As always with these sorts of questions, it depends on 'who votes in party primaries'. If the people voting in GOP primaries want the party to moderate, then it'll moderate. If they don't, then it won't. My guess is that over time people dissatisfied with a Democratic Administration will vote in GOP primaries and the party will become more acceptable to them, but this won't necessarily make it more moderate -- I think many people who joined the Republican party during the Obama Administration supported Trump in the 2016 primaries, who was moderate in some ways but very much not a moderate in other important ways.

The GOP had a 'Great Moderation' event in the 1952 cycle, but this was after 5 consecutive presidential defeats and only one clear-cut victory*, 1946, across the last 11 cycles, with 9 clear-cut defeats and one kind of arguable result (1942 was a Democratic trifecta but the GOP won the NPV so...eh). Also, 1952 was a really close nomination contest and a 'moderate' candidate who wasn't Eisenhower might've lost. At present, after the 2022 cycle, the last 5 presidential elections have broken 3-2 Democratic; across the last 11 cycles -- which is a really long time, 2002-2022 inclusive -- there've been 5 clear-cut Republican victories (2002, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2016) and only 4 clear-cut Democratic victories (2006, 2008, 2018, 2020). (2012 and 2022 are 'unclear' by this metric, though if forced to say I would code the former as a D win and the latter as an R win).

So I guess if New Deal-era history is any guide my guess is this would be nowhere near enough and in fact it would take several decades of this sort of thing (an exact analogy would be, between 2016 and 2040, there could only be two cycles as bad for Democrats as 2022) to force a moderation.

*Here defined as winning the presidency with a trifecta if it is on the ballot, and both houses of Congress if it is not.

If Trump continues to have a hold on the party it’s possible he drives Collins and Tillis into retirement and keeps Kemp out of GA-SEN.

[DS0816]

…

Where does the GOP go from there, following 5 consecutive election cycles losses? …

The Republicans did not lose the midterm elections of 2022.

They gained.

The 2022 Republicans lost –1 U.S. Senate seat but counter-flipped +9 U.S. House seats and, with it, won majority pickup for control of the United Senate House of Representatives.

The 2022 Republicans underperformed historic numbers expected. This is based on going back to the 1910s, with the 17th Amendment, and looking at averages. The 2022 Republicans, with winning over the U.S. House, should have reached 234 or 235 seats. That is…based on historic average in performances from previous midterm elections cycles—in 1918, 1930, 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018—which also delivered majority pickup for control to the White House opposition party.

That is not…loss.

A part of the problem with topics like this is that an assumption is presented. And an assumption is not necessarily accurate. I will also mention this: If the 2024 elections end up a Democratic hold for U.S. President, then the U.S. Senate—and this would be in line with historic outcomes pattern—is likely to also end up a Democratic hold. (Historic pattern is this: In a U.S. presidential election which sees either house of Congress switch parties…the party which prevails is also the one which won for U.S. President.) So, under these circumstances, I would anticipate that the 2026 midterms would be the opportune cycle for the U.S. Senate to flip to the Republicans.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Nothing. They will claim results were rigged and pretend nothing else has happened.

[ShadowRocket]

Hot take: Nothing. They will claim results were rigged and pretend nothing else has happened.

I'm inclined to agree.  They'd still have at least a 50/50 shot at winning the 2028 Presidential after two terms of Biden. Perhaps even more if the Democratic nominee is flawed.

[Zedonathin2020]

Hopefully take a hint and moderate on every important issue; LGBT Rights (especially Trans Rights), Gun Control, Climate Change etc. But they'll realistically keep blaming the old establishment for their woes and continue to nominate more people like Trump and MTG until the more moderate factions begin to splinter off and form a party that'll actually be viable for the 21st century.

[patzer]

Where does the GOP go from there, following 5 consecutive election cycles losses?

It's obvious. Run Trump for President in 2028.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So far the GOP has shown no openness to change even after losing 3 straight election cycles. They are only growing more extreme. The base of the party is so disconnected from reality that until that changes, the party is going to continue to lose.