In your opinion, did Lee Zeldin actually underperform in NY against Hochul?

[sg0508]

Around 2-3 weeks prior to Election Day, there seemed to be real momentum that predicted a GOP wave across the country, with one possible upset being the GOP winning back the statehouse in NY. Zeldin and Co. seem to play up the crime issue in NY bigtime and perhaps that gave him steam against Hochul who to be fair, appeared to have a deer in the headlights look when she spoke. Some thought that he being Jewish (in the most common state for Jewish Americans) could help. George Pataki (my governor growing up) really thought there was a shot to pull off 1994 again there.

That being said,and knowing many who still live in my former native state, he was not going to survive being pro-life and pro-Trump in NY with Dobbs on the ballot.  This came also from those I know who voted for him, but typically voted Democratic.

In the last week or so, he really seemed to stagnate a bit and lost momentum. Some say Hilary Clinton's visit NY played a key role and others from what I hear believe the GOP overplayed the crime issue to the point where some got turned off.  Many also thought young voters played a key role in coming home for the sputtering Hochul in the end.

In the end, while a seven point margin isn't "bad" for a GOPer in NY statewide, it wasn't the nail-biter some thought it would be and wasn't even "that competitive" in a night where many races for the Republicans went similar to this one.

In upstate, Zeldin's performance in the eastern counties was fairly poor and many (myself included) thought he would nearly sweep all the counties upstate outside of Albany and Tompkins. On Long Island (where I'm from), Nassau and Suffolk had to go 60% + to Zeldin for him to have a chance and that didn't happen either.

Thoughts?

[Epaminondas]

while a seven point margin isn't "bad" for a GOPer in NY statewide, it wasn't the nail-biter some thought it would be

Robert Cahaly just inflated his poll numbers to create a narrative, if it weren't for him and his herders nobody would really have bought this.

Zeldin's run was only the best statewide performance in a quarter of a century. Many posters here were not even born when the GOP last ran the city into the ground.

[Galeel]

FWIW he outran the House vote in NY by 5.3 points, so I'd call that a decent overperformance.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Around 2-3 weeks prior to Election Day, there seemed to be real momentum that predicted a GOP wave across the country,

This was never real. This was just a bunch of polls and wishcasting and loud twitter pundits creating a mirage. I genuinely felt like I was being gaslit at sometimes before the election it got so bad and disconnected from reality.

[wbrocks67]

Eh, I mean you definitely could make the argument. Schumer only won by 13, so it wasn't really a Hochul specific problem in New York. So given that Pinion was a nonentity with $0, and Zeldin actually had some momentum, the fact that he only did 6% better than a no-name with no money isn't as great as he was hyped up to be.

[Spectator]

No. He was a very loud Trumpist that lost by 7 points in New York. He did not underperform in that light. He was pro-life as well. It’s a miracle he came within 20 points, let alone 10.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

No. He was a very loud Trumpist that lost by 7 points in New York. He did not underperform in that light. He was pro-life as well. It’s a miracle he came within 20 points, let alone 10.

I would say that while Zeldin himself performed quite well, the NYGOP actually underperformed overall because if Zeldin was not pro-Trump and pro-life he might have been able to win.

[bagelman]

No. He was a very loud Trumpist that lost by 7 points in New York. He did not underperform in that light. He was pro-life as well. It’s a miracle he came within 20 points, let alone 10.

I would say that while Zeldin himself performed quite well, the NYGOP actually underperformed overall because if Zeldin was not pro-Trump and pro-life he might have been able to win.

Agreed. Zeldin was not a bad candidate but he was too conservative and too pro-Trump for New York. If the NY GOP nominated a candidate capable of winning pro-choice moderates then they would've won outright for the first time in decades. This was their golden opportunity.

[Sir Mohamed]

Are we talking about 1994? Then sure.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

No. I predicted Hochul would win between 6-9 points and she ended up winning by 7 so I was spot on.