Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election (user search)
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  Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election  (Read 1237 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,640
United States


« on: May 26, 2023, 07:26:05 PM »

Quote
Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin

Those eight states are the majority of competitive states in the country that are outside of the South.   The only two left I can think of are Minnesota and maybe Oregon.   Democrats did lose OR-5 but did decently other than that in those two states.

The South has notoriously low voter elasticity so persuasion won't play as big of a role there.  I think Georgia in particular is one of the least elastic states in the country.  

Also explaining it as "Good Democratic turnout operations" isn't really enough considering Democratic voter turnout wasn't all that great and a lot of D victories came down to swinging independent voters their way.

The issues that were important to voters that leaned them to Democrats (abortion, threats to democracy, healthcare, climate change, etc) were simply more persuasive than issues that leaned them to Republicans (gun rights, COVID lockdown stuff, CRT, crime, etc).

In other words - It wasn't Democrats running amazing operations in the country (the Democratic Party of New Hampshire is god awful for example), it was more the environment that went their way and the states that had more elasticity felt the biggest shocks to the outcomes.
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