Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election
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  Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election
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Author Topic: Why the Dems beat expectations in the 2022 election  (Read 903 times)
Torie
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« on: May 23, 2023, 08:46:57 AM »
« edited: May 23, 2023, 08:59:59 AM by Torie »

This discursive article that goes on forever and ever; it basically asserts that the Dems really didn't exceed expectations, except in 8 states, with the Pubs doing better in Florida as an "outlier." 8 is more than 1 net.

The reason? One was the prevalence of mail in voting in those 8 states. The second was the Dems concentrated their resources in the Big 8, trying to save their Senate majority, and heavily outspent the Pubs, given their laser beam focus. The result? The Dems turned unlikely voters into actual voters for their cause. At least that is the author's operative "suspicion."

Not a word about candidate quality. Maybe in the end that does not matter anymore, in the current Manichean political environment where we all hate each other as demonic (if you don't believe me, just read Atlas for awhile).

Anyway, I am not sure I buy all this (but the Pubs might given their hatred of mail in voting, although there is some indication that they have thrown in the towel, and will join the vote harvesting fun in the future).

The article really is interminable, so the failure to read it is wholly understandable. Thank heavens I can speed read more I less. Otherwise I would still be at it, or have abandoned the task.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/05/16/mystery_at_the_midterm_what_happened_to_the_red_wave_149208.html
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2023, 09:10:39 AM »

I saw this a few days ago. Tbh seems like just another entry in Sean and RCPís endless cope with our changing country.
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Shaula
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2023, 05:43:17 PM »

Yep, Dems almost always won the places where they heavily outspent Republicans (which were the most important races). It's all about money.
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2023, 07:01:25 PM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2023, 07:09:26 PM »

Yep, Dems almost always won the places where they heavily outspent Republicans (which were the most important races). It's all about money.

This explains why Donald Trump, who vastly underspent Hillary Clinton and his Republican rivals, won the 2016 election, clearly. It's all about money.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2023, 02:54:48 AM »

There's one big reason why Democrats did poorly in deep blue and deep red states while massively overperforming in purple states, and it starts with a "D" and ends with an "obbs". 
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2023, 05:48:24 AM »

The problem with the article is it concedes the dataset. New Hampshire did not have mail or early voting.

It is pretty clear the X factor was post-covid migration. Raw Turnout in Maine and New Hampshire was more than 10% above 2018, and the results were less than a 1% R swing from that year for the US House. In the Midwest Covid sped up migration of older Boomer Rs to the South, and younger D-leaning voters out of urban cores to replace them.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2023, 08:40:01 AM »

I mean it's RCP. That should've been your first red flag, since they are literally the ones who brought us their "unskewer" during 2022
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2023, 08:56:31 AM »

Because un 2010 in a Great Recession Environment Obamacare was unpopular we had a Great Recession in 3/17/20 and we had a Pandemic that's why Biden is leading DeSantis by 7 and DeSantis only won by 20 due to IAN it's gone now😆😆😆

Rs won 60 seats in the H in 2010 because voters wanted to repeal Obamacare there is still HIV and Cancer out there and COVID
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2023, 04:55:10 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2023, 05:14:03 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?

COVID surge at the border is over Biden was at 33% in the QU polls for a reason we're all vaccinated we got all the boosters no more COVID unless you are in a Nursing home my dad died last yr in one
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2023, 07:05:33 AM »

Nearly 9000 words, reads like a chapter in a very dull poli-sci book, piles on the codas, and makes exactly one cogent argument on the alleged nefariousness of vote-by-mail.

Not even a dead cat bounce for RCP editorials since 2022.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2023, 07:56:21 AM »

As I said Ds did better than expected mo 6 Gas prices, no Omnicron varient that's one reason why YOUNGKIN win there was an Omnicron varient, but fas prices are 4.25 but will go down all those are factors as why Biden is still dav
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2023, 10:18:06 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?

Laxalt wasn't actually a good candidate; he just looked good in comparison to Walker, Oz, Masters, etc.

Fung was running in a Democratic district. When a candidate holds a district that their party's presidential nominee won by 14 points two years earlier, that doesn't require any sort of special explanation regardless of national environment.
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Spectator
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2023, 10:39:25 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?

Laxalt wasn't actually a good candidate; he just looked good in comparison to Walker, Oz, Masters, etc.

Fung was running in a Democratic district. When a candidate holds a district that their party's presidential nominee won by 14 points two years earlier, that doesn't require any sort of special explanation regardless of national environment.

And Fung still came a lot closer than other challengers in districts that were comparably blue.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2023, 10:42:37 AM »

How many more elections should RCP fumble to totally discredit them as anything else than Republican hacks?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2023, 11:00:32 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?

Laxalt wasn't actually a good candidate; he just looked good in comparison

 to Walker, Oz, Masters, etc.

Fung was running in a Democratic district. When a candidate holds a district that their party's presidential nominee won by 14 points two years earlier, that doesn't require any sort of special explanation regardless of national environment.

RI-02 in 2022=KS-02 in 2018
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jimmie
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2023, 11:34:29 AM »

I do believe that there is some POOR  journalism of the 2022 midterms.

It was NOT a Democratic year by any stretch. The electorate clearly preferred the other party.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2023, 01:24:38 PM »

Because expectations didn't take into account how unfavorable the map was to Republicans to begin with.
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Pericles
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2023, 07:04:15 PM »

I do believe that there is some POOR  journalism of the 2022 midterms.

It was NOT a Democratic year by any stretch. The electorate clearly preferred the other party.

It was a neutral year, which the House results clearly show. That is an embarassing underperformance because most midterms are wave elections and with Biden's approvals at 40% and inflation so high, Republicans were set up for a wave if they didn't wreck their own chances.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2023, 07:26:05 PM »

Quote
Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin

Those eight states are the majority of competitive states in the country that are outside of the South.   The only two left I can think of are Minnesota and maybe Oregon.   Democrats did lose OR-5 but did decently other than that in those two states.

The South has notoriously low voter elasticity so persuasion won't play as big of a role there.  I think Georgia in particular is one of the least elastic states in the country.  

Also explaining it as "Good Democratic turnout operations" isn't really enough considering Democratic voter turnout wasn't all that great and a lot of D victories came down to swinging independent voters their way.

The issues that were important to voters that leaned them to Democrats (abortion, threats to democracy, healthcare, climate change, etc) were simply more persuasive than issues that leaned them to Republicans (gun rights, COVID lockdown stuff, CRT, crime, etc).

In other words - It wasn't Democrats running amazing operations in the country (the Democratic Party of New Hampshire is god awful for example), it was more the environment that went their way and the states that had more elasticity felt the biggest shocks to the outcomes.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2023, 09:47:39 AM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.

It surely was. Republicans lost a lot of races (Arizona is the best example, though there are many) by running absolutely atrocious candidates. Even "normal" "pragmatic conservatives" would win a lot of these races for them, i don't even speak about moderates , where they were the best candidates..
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2023, 01:27:36 PM »

Itís hard to take seriously anyone saying candidate quality wasnít really the main reason of the 2022 results.
Why did Laxalt and Fung lose then?

Because Laxalt was a bad candidate lmao
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2023, 06:46:36 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2023, 06:50:39 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

The answer is 4 percentage pts Unemployment

Just like Rod Joseph, Kunce and ALLRED can win Harold Ford was down 11 late to Corker and closed within 1 he wasn't only 5 pts down in 18 MNTHS that poll is good news not bad news for ALLRED and maps are blank on Edays there are no ratings on Eday

I never make exact maps too many blk and Brown and white females in this country in red and blue states except IA and Dakota

We can win IN it's blk and Brown more than IA
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2023, 12:44:48 AM »

I mean it's RCP. That should've been your first red flag, since they are literally the ones who brought us their "unskewer" during 2022

They also don't mention GA as a state where Dems overperformed but amazingly in the one race the GA GOP nominated a bad candidate they had the exact same problems as they had in AZ, NV, PA, MI despite not having as many mail ballots.

And if the mail ballots did everything, why didn't Dems win all those Biden +10 Cali seats and keep the House?
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