KY (Coefficient - Cameron internal): Beshear +2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1660647800743374860?cxt=HHwWmMC9xYqY54...

Maybe Beshear will end up losing and I'm not saying he's safe, but it's hard to call him an underdog at this point.

[soundchaser]

I'm hesitant to call this race Lean D, but it seems like it could be a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year for governorships.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This and MS are gonna be close

[President Johnson]

Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?

Tossup remains tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup at best for Democrats. Beshear was up by way more at this time in 2019.

[Duke of York]

Tossup at best for Democrats. Beshear was up by way more at this time in 2019.

This is also a Republican internal poll. Wouldn't put much faith in it.

[Skill and Chance]

Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?

Tossup remains tossup.

Generally, yes.  IMO the consensus here is way too high on Beshear.  I'm not saying he can't win, but I don't expect him to win easily.

We tend to put a lot of weight on some pretty old history, and while I get that the "old school Dem" approach can still work occasionally in the Clinton-McCain-Trump states, I've always thought Beshear could also fit in the "only won because his opponent was a crazy person and/or corrupt" category.  In general, these people struggle to hold on for reelection against a Generic R/D unless their initial margin of victory was very large, and Beshear only won by ~5K votes.

It's also possible some people are anticipating a Bradley effect, but the fact that Cameron already won statewide and in a landslide (and against a long-serving white Appalachian Dem) makes that implausible IMO.     

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?

Tossup remains tossup.

Generally, yes.  IMO the consensus here is way too high on Beshear.  I'm not saying he can't win, but I don't expect him to win easily.

We tend to put a lot of weight on some pretty old history, and while I get that the "old school Dem" approach can still work occasionally in the Clinton-McCain-Trump states, I've always thought Beshear could also fit in the "only won because his opponent was a crazy person and/or corrupt" category.  In general, these people struggle to hold on for reelection against a Generic R/D unless their initial margin of victory was very large, and Beshear only won by ~5K votes.

It's also possible some people are anticipating a Bradley effect, but the fact that Cameron already won statewide and in a landslide (and against a long-serving white Appalachian Dem) makes that implausible IMO.     

Sorry for throwing shade, but I distinctly remember you saying the same about Laura Kelly

[Spectator]

Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?

Tossup remains tossup.

Generally, yes.  IMO the consensus here is way too high on Beshear.  I'm not saying he can't win, but I don't expect him to win easily.

We tend to put a lot of weight on some pretty old history, and while I get that the "old school Dem" approach can still work occasionally in the Clinton-McCain-Trump states, I've always thought Beshear could also fit in the "only won because his opponent was a crazy person and/or corrupt" category.  In general, these people struggle to hold on for reelection against a Generic R/D unless their initial margin of victory was very large, and Beshear only won by ~5K votes.

It's also possible some people are anticipating a Bradley effect, but the fact that Cameron already won statewide and in a landslide (and against a long-serving white Appalachian Dem) makes that implausible IMO.     

Sorry for throwing shade, but I distinctly remember you saying the same about Laura Kelly

I think the big takeaway of people like Laura Kelly, John Bel Edwards, and Roy Cooper holding on in tough states against well-funded credible challengers is that it’s seldom a good bet to guess an incumbent Governor will lose if their approval rating is above water. I think the last Governor that lost despite an approval above water was Bob Ehrlich.

[Skill and Chance]

Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?

Tossup remains tossup.

Generally, yes.  IMO the consensus here is way too high on Beshear.  I'm not saying he can't win, but I don't expect him to win easily.

We tend to put a lot of weight on some pretty old history, and while I get that the "old school Dem" approach can still work occasionally in the Clinton-McCain-Trump states, I've always thought Beshear could also fit in the "only won because his opponent was a crazy person and/or corrupt" category.  In general, these people struggle to hold on for reelection against a Generic R/D unless their initial margin of victory was very large, and Beshear only won by ~5K votes.

It's also possible some people are anticipating a Bradley effect, but the fact that Cameron already won statewide and in a landslide (and against a long-serving white Appalachian Dem) makes that implausible IMO.     

Sorry for throwing shade, but I distinctly remember you saying the same about Laura Kelly

Yes, I was mildly surprised that she won reelection, but you have to admit it was considerably closer the 2nd time around.  I don't think there's any way Kelly would still be governor without Dobbs. 

There's also a clear Dem trend in Kansas even presidentially, which puts it in a different category IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reeves is only 2 pts ahead too

[DrScholl]

Why would you release an internal with you trailing by any amount in a state where the partisan lean heavily favors you?

That aside I have a feeling this race might have Blanco vs. Jindal vibes.

[wbrocks67]

co/efficient is also horrific - they were awful in the midterms and they botched the KS abortion vote last summer by like 20%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

co/efficient is also horrific - they were awful in the midterms and they botched the KS abortion vote last summer by like 20%

Issue polling is absolute garbage(not defending this particular pollster, they are obviously trash)

[Mr. Smith]

Tossup at best for Democrats. Beshear was up by way more at this time in 2019.

You're so optimistic.

[Xing]

Honestly, Beshear +2 is a very believable result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Provisions ballots always fav Ds, the race was based on Provisions ballots last time in 2019 and Beshesr won, Presley is in it too

[Alben Barkley]

Polling was relatively sparse last time but I remember one poll that gave Bevin a like 8 point lead and that made certain people here almost blow up the forum with their smugness. Oops…

Suffice it to say, if Cameron is down by any amount in an internal from a suspect R-leaning pollster, that’s not great for him. But at the same time, polling is often sketchy here and just like in 2019, I won’t make my prediction based primarily on polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are supposed to sweep all three the fact that it's competitive in 2/3 is bad news these are R22 states MS and KY and they lost AK H and KS Gov the 303 map is 😊 ne and we can win some red states Allred isn't 7 pts back he is five and Beto lost by 11