Predict how these Senators would vote in this scenario

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TML:
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 22, 2023, 07:02:25 PM

Manchin has been quite consistent that he categorically opposes filling SCOTUS vacancies in presidential election years, so they would 100% need Sinema and/or Collins/Murkowski.



Manchin did support Garland in 2016, so I think he would probably support filling a vacancy arising before mid-2024 or so. His official reasoning for opposing Barrett was that the nomination was rushed, not that it was during an election year.

S019:
It follows party lines with the exception of Manchin voting No, if he is running again.

Christian Man:
I think people are overexaggerating Sinema. She's more fiscally conservative than the Dem Party but she's far from being a Republican. She'd toe the party line on the nomination

Del Tachi:
Quote from: NE Senator Christian Man on May 22, 2023, 09:15:43 PM

I think people are overexaggerating Sinema. She's more fiscally conservative than the Dem Party but she's far from being a Republican. She'd toe the party line on the nomination



This would normally be true, but in this scenario, Sinema would be in the middle of a quixotic independent bid for reelection.  Voting down a Biden nominee may serve her well depending on how that campaign is shaking out. 

Also, OT, but:  should Sotomayor go ahead and retire while Dems have 51 seats?  If they lose the Senate in 2024, it may be a long time until they win it back. 

Christian Man:
Quote from: Del Tachi on May 23, 2023, 04:59:25 PM

Quote from: NE Senator Christian Man on May 22, 2023, 09:15:43 PM

I think people are overexaggerating Sinema. She's more fiscally conservative than the Dem Party but she's far from being a Republican. She'd toe the party line on the nomination



This would normally be true, but in this scenario, Sinema would be in the middle of a quixotic independent bid for reelection.  Voting down a Biden nominee may serve her well depending on how that campaign is shaking out.  

Also, OT, but:  should Sotomayor go ahead and retire while Dems have 51 seats?  If they lose the Senate in 2024, it may be a long time until they win it back.  


Sinema would need Dems not Reps if there was the slight chance she were to pull an upset and very few Dems would want to vote for someone who voted down a nominee. Republicans may like her more but besides a few Never-Trumpers who would've voted her either way they wouldn't vote for her over Lake, Lamb or whoever the GOP nominee is.

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