Predict how these Senators would vote in this scenario
TML:
Imagine this scenario: a vacancy arises on the Supreme Court in late 3Q2024 or early 4Q2024 in a seat formerly occupied by a conservative justice. President Biden nominates an ostensibly liberal replacement, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer scheduling a formal vote on a date before November 5, 2024. How do you think each of these Senators would vote on this nomination? [For the purposes of this thread, I've only included Senators who are running for reelection (not those who are retiring) in seats that are rated as less than safe/solid by at least one reputable election handicapper.]
NewYorkExpress:
Sinema and Manchin would vote Nay, and that would be enough to sink the nomination.
politicallefty:
I think it depends on the nominee. If I were President Biden in that scenario, I would definitely call Manchin and Sinema to the White House (separately, of course). I'd be more worried about Manchin than Sinema actually.
I think the ultimate trump card is Michelle Childs. She was on the short list last year. Though probably a bit older than most on the left would like, she has the strong support of Lindsey Graham, among others. Thomas or Alito to her would be a massive shift on the Court. (Roberts no longer on the Court would be more complicated. If you elevate from within the Court, you need two confirmation hearings. Conventional wisdom is that Kagan is elevated to CJ if Roberts leaves early.)
Del Tachi:
The trump card is Doug Jones. I seriously doubt any Senate Democrat (except Sinema, perhaps) would vote against a former Senate colleague.
Skill and Chance:
Manchin has been quite consistent that he categorically opposes filling SCOTUS vacancies in presidential election years, so they would 100% need Sinema and/or Collins/Murkowski.
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