dw93
DWL
YaBB God
Posts: 4,873
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« on: May 16, 2023, 07:10:04 PM » |
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Agnew still resigns as his tax evasion and taking bribes happened when he was Gov. of Maryland, and Ford is still appointed to replace Agnew as Nixon has an easier time getting him through congress. As for 1976 on the Republican side, Ford retires after the Vice Presidency, so Reagan definitely runs with Rockefeller or John Connally as his main opponent. I think Reagan gets the nomination as Connally was a Democrat as recent as 1972 and was an LBJ lacky while Rockefeller would be a spent force. Reagan picks a moderate as his running mate to unify the party, especially if his primary victory is narrow. It could be Richard Schweiker, who he was gonna pick in 1976 our timeline if he were to win the nomination or it could be someone else. Howard Baker, Charles Percy, or even Connally or Rockefeller are possibilities.
On the Democratic side, Carter likely still runs but goes nowhere. I tend to agree with others here that Henry "Scoop" Jackson would be the Democratic nominee in a Watergateless 1976, as I think the party establishment would throw its weight behind him early with the disaster of 1972 still fresh and a lack of post Watergate cynicism. Jackson would either pick a southerner like Reubin Askew or Lloyd Bentsen to attempt to stop any bleeding in the south, especially against Reagan, or he picks a liberal from the midwest (Birch Bayh or even Mondale himself for example).
As for the general election, even without Watergate, 1973-76 is still gonna be more of a negative than a positive for the GOP. The Recession of 1973-75, the oil shortage of 73, Inflation, and a lack of domestic accomplishments are still gonna sink Nixon's approval ratings. Granted the fall of Saigon won't happen on schedule as Nixon holding on likely delays that to 1977, but still everything else is gonna hurt, so with that in mind and with a decent chunk of the electorate seeing Reagan as Goldwater 2.0, the fundamentals favor the Democrats. Jackson would also be a stronger candidate than Carter. Having said that, the Republicans have an electoral advantage at this time and the Democrats still haven't fully recovered from 68 and still remained pretty divided, so division in the Democratic party could hand Reagan a win.
As for 1980, I think if Reagan wins 76, a Democrat trounces him as he'd be gridlocked for four years and much of what sunk Carter would still be an issue, on top of 12 years of Republicans in the Presidency. If a Democrat wins, 77 and 78 could, in terms of legislation passed, be a repeat of 1965-66 depending on how large congressional majorities are as whoever wins the Presidency would likely be more politically astute than Carter was, so healthcare reform and some sort of stimulus might soften the blow of the late 70s enough to help the incumbent narrowly fend off the Republican nominee, as would better handling of Iran. If not, a more moderate Republican than Reagan is elected President that year and like Nixon before them, is gonna be elected with a Democratic House and Senate as I doubt a non Carter Democratic incumbent would lose as badly as Carter did.
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