1976 after Nixon completes his second term
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:02:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1976 after Nixon completes his second term
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 1976 after Nixon completes his second term  (Read 791 times)
BigVic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,482
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 15, 2023, 09:17:21 PM »

No Watergate and Nixon finishes his second term and presidency.

Who wins and how does the list of presidents look like?
Logged
TheTide
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,593
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2023, 04:56:06 AM »

It depends on the Agnew situation. If his scandal doesn't take place then he'd have a good shot at the nomination - he seems to have been positioning himself as the conservative candidate for 1976 as he knew that he needed to eat into Reagan's appeal. If he is still forced to resign, then it would pretty inevitably be Reagan as the GOP nominee.

For the Democrats, I doubt Carter gets nominated without the outsider effect of Watergate. It's probably Church or Udall, maybe Scoop Jackson if they really desire a different direction from the 1972 nomination race.

It's a hard race to call, but you would have to give the edge to Reagan.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2023, 11:56:23 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2023, 12:14:35 PM by Hotel California Victim »

Without the Watergate Babies, the 1974 elections are only a modest gain for Democrats in Congress. The Nixon presidency concludes with falling popularity amid the 1973-1975 recession, Agnew's resignation, and the fall of Saigon (probably around late 1976 when the US is busy with the presidential transition). Attempts at healthcare reform and basic income fail. However, Egyptian-Israeli peace is negotiated in mid-1974 (Nixon wants to cement his legacy, Ratz is still in Yizchak Rabin's coalition, and Kissinger isn't fully behind building ties with the Arab countries yet) and a SALT II treaty is ratified in 1976.

Without a sitting president or a retiring Vice President Ford to overcome in the primaries, Ronald Reagan defeats John Connally- Nixon's endorsement- and Nelson Rockefeller. Traumatized by 1972 and with the way things are going abroad, IMO, Democrats tack to the right. Henry Jackson jumps into the wide open Democrat primary and wins a close one against Reagan, who's weighed down just enough by Republican fatigue and factionalism.


Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA)
Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA) / Fmr. Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA) ✓

The late '70s economy is still pretty sour and things probably still go south in Iran. I could see a President Jackson attempting some "managed transition" of the Shah from power or some other shenanigans without Executive Order 11905 in the way- itself a consequence of the Watergate-borne "Year of Intelligence"- but by that point it was probably too late to get a pro-US government going. George Bush, some Reagan protégé like Paul Laxalt, or maybe even Jack Kemp wins in a pretty familiar-looking 1980 election unless Jackson does something totally crazy like invade Iran, in which case all bets are off. There would definitely be a third-party candidate to Jackson's left though, maybe Jerry Brown.

Another interesting butterfly is that John Dean, John Ehrlichman, and H.R. Halderman probably become key strategists within the GOP, which slows the rise of OTL's stars like Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2023, 02:03:15 PM »

I honestly think a Republican would narrowly have won a third term, most likely John Conally, who Nixon wanted as his successor. However, with the late 1970s malaise and unsolved challenges at home and abroad, he's completely DOA in 1980.



✓ Former Treasury Secretary John Conally (R-TX)/Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS): 284 EV. (49.11%)
Senator Henry M. Jackson (D-WA)/Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ): 254 EV. (48.25%)
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2023, 07:10:04 PM »

Agnew still resigns as his tax evasion and taking bribes happened when he was Gov. of Maryland, and Ford is still appointed to replace Agnew as Nixon has an easier time getting him through congress. As for 1976 on the Republican side, Ford retires after the Vice Presidency, so Reagan definitely runs with Rockefeller or John Connally as his main opponent. I think Reagan gets the nomination as Connally was a Democrat as recent as 1972 and was an LBJ lacky while Rockefeller would be a spent force. Reagan picks a moderate as his running mate to unify the party, especially if his primary victory is narrow. It could be Richard Schweiker, who he was gonna pick in 1976 our timeline if he were to win the nomination or it could  be someone else. Howard Baker, Charles Percy, or even Connally or Rockefeller are possibilities.

On the Democratic side, Carter likely still runs but goes nowhere. I tend to agree with others here that Henry "Scoop" Jackson would be the Democratic nominee in a Watergateless 1976, as I think the party establishment would throw its weight behind him early with the disaster of 1972 still fresh and a lack of post Watergate cynicism.  Jackson would either pick a southerner like Reubin Askew or Lloyd Bentsen to attempt to stop any bleeding in the south, especially against Reagan, or he picks a liberal from the midwest (Birch Bayh or even Mondale himself for example).

As for the general election, even without Watergate, 1973-76 is still gonna be more of a negative than a positive for the GOP. The Recession of 1973-75, the oil shortage of 73, Inflation, and a lack of domestic accomplishments are still gonna sink Nixon's approval ratings. Granted the fall of Saigon won't happen on schedule as Nixon holding on likely delays that to 1977, but still everything else is gonna hurt, so with that in mind and with a decent chunk of the electorate seeing Reagan as Goldwater 2.0, the fundamentals favor the Democrats. Jackson would also be a stronger candidate than Carter. Having said that, the Republicans have an electoral advantage at this time and the Democrats still haven't fully recovered from 68 and still remained pretty divided, so division in the Democratic party could hand Reagan a win.

As for 1980, I think if Reagan wins 76, a Democrat trounces him as he'd be gridlocked for four years and much of what sunk Carter would still be an issue, on top of 12 years of Republicans in the Presidency. If a Democrat wins, 77 and 78 could, in terms of legislation passed, be a repeat of 1965-66 depending on how large congressional majorities are as whoever wins the Presidency would likely be more politically astute than Carter was, so healthcare reform and some sort of stimulus might soften the blow of the late 70s enough to help the incumbent narrowly fend off the Republican nominee, as would better handling of Iran. If not, a more moderate Republican than Reagan is elected President that year and like Nixon before them, is gonna be elected with a Democratic House and Senate as I doubt a non Carter Democratic incumbent would lose as badly as Carter did.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2023, 08:26:34 PM »



Henry Jackson/Lloyd Bentsen
Ronald Reagan/Richard Schweiker  193
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,390
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2023, 11:06:10 PM »

Another interesting butterfly is that John Dean, John Ehrlichman, and H.R. Halderman probably become key strategists within the GOP, which slows the rise of OTL's stars like Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Maybe that would result in GOP foreign policy being more “realist” and less “neocon”?
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,502
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2023, 10:09:51 PM »



Ted Kennedy would have been the nominee.  Jimmy Carter was planning 1976 way back in 1972 and would have maneuvered himself onto the ticket one way or another as the "New South" candidate.

I'm basing my scenario as Ford replacing Agnew and defeating Reagan in a less contentious race. 
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2023, 03:31:15 AM »

Regardless of whether he's the incumbent Vice President or not, Gerald Ford would probably be talked into running by the GOP establishment, as he'd be the only candidate who could stop Reagan and be acceptable to a wider swath of the party.

If he isn't in prison and is still the incumbent, Agnew is pretty much a non-factor. The GOP establishment hated him, and Reagan, if he runs, takes away the conservative lane from him. His best chance would be hoping Reagan doesn't run.

Democrats would probably nominate Ted Kennedy in this scenario. Chappaquiddick sinks Kennedy against Ford or Reagan, but Kennedy beats Agnew.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2023, 02:27:30 PM »



Ted Kennedy would have been the nominee.  Jimmy Carter was planning 1976 way back in 1972 and would have maneuvered himself onto the ticket one way or another as the "New South" candidate.

I'm basing my scenario as Ford replacing Agnew and defeating Reagan in a less contentious race. 

I doubt Ford would have run in 1976, if he wasn't president already. He would have served ended his political career after the vice presidency in 1977. The only was I see him running is in a deadlocked convention as a compromise candidate.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 13 queries.