PA-Susquehanna: Casey +12 vs. McCormick

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1656329226717483008

[SnowLabrador]

It'll tighten a little once partisanship kicks in, but I do think Casey will do better than Fetterman.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dominating

[S019]

Biden is at 48% in this poll so for Casey to be running 5% ahead of Biden would basically ensure his re-election. This is a terrible poll for McCormick, who I thought would keep it in single digits.

[The Mikado]

Biden is at 48% in this poll so for Casey to be running 5% ahead of Biden would basically ensure his re-election. This is a terrible poll for McCormick, who I thought would keep it in single digits.

I was about to say "Bob Casey Jr has literally never been held to single digits" but I'm lucky I checked first because in 2012 he won by *only* 9.1%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has zero chance of winning if he can't win PA

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Race starts off at somewhere between Lean and Likely D. It's hilarious how McConnell sees this as a better pickup opportunity than Arizona and Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCormick was only a strong candidate against Fetterman because Fetterman is a classic liberal Casey is a blue dog

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot take: Angus King is more likely to lose than Casey is.

[Senator Incitatus]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

The idea that a man who lost to Dr. Oz is in any way capable at politics should have been laughed off months ago.

[Sir Mohamed]

Too bad they didn't poll Mastriano.

Likely D against McCormick, Safe D against the MAGA clown.

[Epaminondas]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

The idea that a man who lost to Dr. Oz is in any way capable at politics should have been laughed off months ago.

Not disagreeing but primary dynamics don't align with GE strengths. See Murkowski 2010/Manchin 1996/the 2012 Senate contests

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It'll tighten a little once partisanship kicks in, but I do think Casey will do better than Fetterman.

If SnowLabrador thinks a D will win by more than five points the race is realistically Safe-D, or at least a strong Likely.

[Pericles]

Casey is a very lucky guy, it's amazing that potentialy four times in a row he wins easily despite representing a swing state.

[Epaminondas]

Casey is a very lucky guy, it's amazing that potentially four times in a row he wins easily despite representing a swing state.

If things go this well in 2024, the GOP will lose all row offices and be reduced to holding a gerrymandered State Senate. There won't be much reason to claim Pennsylvania is a swing state, but rather perennially Lean D absent a disastrous candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, ,PA and MI were only swing states with Hillaryand Jill Stein cost her the vote that's why it doesn't matter what Rs do they won't win, even Gore and Kerry won the trip of states the reason why they lost was CO, NV, AZ and VA which makes up OH 20 EC votes were still R pre Great Recession

[oldtimer]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

The idea that a man who lost to Dr. Oz is in any way capable at politics should have been laughed off months ago.

That is acutally correct.

[President Johnson]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

I wouldn't necessarily say a worse candidate, though I never really bought McCormick is that much of a great candidate either. He can easily be pained as out of touch hedge fund guy who represents Wall Street and not Main Street. He'd still lose by less than Mastriano, however.

[wbrocks67]

Casey is a very lucky guy, it's amazing that potentially four times in a row he wins easily despite representing a swing state.

If things go this well in 2024, the GOP will lose all row offices and be reduced to holding a gerrymandered State Senate. There won't be much reason to claim Pennsylvania is a swing state, but rather perennially Lean D absent a disastrous candidate.

Still so pissed about the state senate. It was definitely nearly winnable this past year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There are several Republicans who could give Casey a real race(i.e. Bartos, DeFoor etc) but McCormick is not one of them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the same 303 map as we voted in 6 mnths ago Casey is leading by the same margin as Shapiro

[Senator Incitatus]

McCormick is a worse candidate than Oz and he would do terribly.

The idea that a man who lost to Dr. Oz is in any way capable at politics should have been laughed off months ago.

Not disagreeing but primary dynamics don't align with GE strengths. See Murkowski 2010/Manchin 1996/the 2012 Senate contests

Murkowski and arguably Manchin aren’t hypotheticals, whereas the 2012 candidates were and are not worth discussing, but both Joe Miller and Charlotte Pritt were miles better than Dr. Oz.

[Miked0920]

Yeah Casey is fairly heavily favored either way. McCormick might make it a Lean Dem race in terms of being viable or competitive but not Tossup level of competitive, at least as of now. In addition David McCormick being a former Hedge Fund CEO makes him vulnerable to attacks of being a wealthy rich guy out of touch with main st. I think Mccormick and Mastriano will both likely run but Casey is favored regardless. If Mastriano is the GOP nominee, Casey will easily secure another term!!!

[wbrocks67]

There are several Republicans who could give Casey a real race(i.e. Bartos, DeFoor etc) but McCormick is not one of them

Neither of these people would give him a real race either