Next Senator from California?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lee, Alsobrooks, ALLRED, Slotkin are getting all the Endirsements, that's why they will win and Rod JOSEPH, Rod JOSEPH isn't known yet that's why after Tues FL isn't Safe R Ds are gonna invest since DeSantis will get swept in the primary he isn't viable anymore, that's why Deegan won white females vote 51/49 but can see a 60/40 percentage increase in 24

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know that I haven't been posting this year as much as I used to, but what have I missed in this race that so many are voting for Lee over Porter or Schiff?

I would have said Schiff, by the way, but is there actually something to Lee now being the front-runner? Or is it an Atlas overreaction to something?

[brucejoel99]

I know that I haven't been posting this year as much as I used to, but what have I missed in this race that so many are voting for Lee over Porter or Schiff?

I would have said Schiff, by the way, but is there actually something to Lee now being the front-runner? Or is it an Atlas overreaction to something?

See:

Someone help me see the reason for the Lee enthusiasm. Very limited polling but in what polling we have had she trails the two other Democrats badly. She has also raised nowhere near as much money as Schiff or Porter.  I don't have a dog in this fight and would be fine with Lee but as an outsider I just don't see why Lee should be leading this poll.

California is a machine state, Lee has received the types of endorsements relevant to a machine state, and Boss Newsom has promised to appoint a black woman in the increasingly likely event that Feinstein resigns or dies before November 2024.

We haven't had a meaningful poll since Porter's Nov. internal (a Feb. UC Berkeley poll polled only Dems & non-affiliated voters, making it irrelevant since CA has nonpartisan blanket primaries), & in the meantime since, Porter (30%) got sh*t for announcing during a natural disaster (& not waiting for DiFi) in addition to the Klob-like sh*t she gets everytime a bad employee-treatment story drops, Schiff (29%) entered with Pelosi's support, Lee (9%) got in with the support of Kamala's ex-statewide network (incl. her sister as well as her ex-CoS who's literally running Lee's Super PAC) & pretty much the rest of the Bay Area machine's support (not to mention the support of pretty much every major Black elected official in the state except still-neutrals Maxine Waters & Shirley Weber), significant because regionalism still matters somewhat in CA politics & the Bay Area has notoriously punched above its weight in previous elections (& its machine is currently hoping to retain its hold on DiFi's Senate seat after losing the Boxer/Harris seat to Padilla, nevermind DiFi herself siding with Pelosi in wanting SoCal's to have both seats with Padilla & Schiff), & Khanna (6%) chose not to even get in & instead endorsed Lee.


*FWIW: the irrelevant-for-all-intents-&-purposes Berkeley poll had Schiff on 22%, Porter on 20%, Lee on 6%, & Khanna on 4%.

[Suburbia]

Newsom will appoint Lee in a few days...

[MargieCat]

Newsom will appoint Lee in a few days...

Probably so. I don't think Feinstein is making it through to the 2024 elections.

Frankly, I don't even think she will make it through another month...

[Zedonathin2020]

Newsom will appoint Lee in a few days...

Probably so. I don't think Feinstein is making it through to the 2024 elections.

Frankly, I don't even think she will make it through another month...

Even if DiFi DOES croak in a month or two, I don't think that Newsom would just give Lee an incumbency advantage going into the primaries.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I know that I haven't been posting this year as much as I used to, but what have I missed in this race that so many are voting for Lee over Porter or Schiff?

I would have said Schiff, by the way, but is there actually something to Lee now being the front-runner? Or is it an Atlas overreaction to something?

It doesn't help that most of the explanations/overreactions here have to include some kind of anti-Porter editorializing from the pro-Lee side (But not much anti-Schiff editorializing)

[Mr. Smith]

I know that I haven't been posting this year as much as I used to, but what have I missed in this race that so many are voting for Lee over Porter or Schiff?

I would have said Schiff, by the way, but is there actually something to Lee now being the front-runner? Or is it an Atlas overreaction to something?

It doesn't help that most of the explanations/overreactions here have to include some kind of anti-Porter editorializing from the pro-Lee side (But not much anti-Schiff editorializing)

Mostly 'cuz there hasn't been much to say about Schiff in the first place. Maybe he takes that same "beneath notice" approach Biden used and can quietly eke through based on a few national stooges. It's certainly seeming more effective than what Porter's doing.

But will that necessarily overcome the consistent Bay-to-Sac pipeline Lee has put herself into?

[MargieCat]

Newsom will appoint Lee in a few days...

Probably so. I don't think Feinstein is making it through to the 2024 elections.

Frankly, I don't even think she will make it through another month...

Even if DiFi DOES croak in a month or two, I don't think that Newsom would just give Lee an incumbency advantage going into the primaries.

I'm not sure he would either. But she's the most likely of the three main contenders to get the appointment.

He probably appoints a placeholder who is not planning to run.

I don't think Feinstein will necessarily croak in a month or two. I think she will just be forced into retirement by friends/family. It can't be very easy for her to get up and go into work each day. At a certain point, it might become impossible. And that's not far off.

[RyanSDakota]

It is interesting...Barbara Lee and Katie Porter both state Rob Bonta has endorsed their campaigns for the Senate on their respective campaign web sites.

[Utah Neolib]

It is interesting...Barbara Lee and Katie Porter both state Rob Bonta has endorsed their campaigns for the Senate on their respective campaign web sites.

Rob Bonta did a ‘co-endorsement’ of both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for Porter and Schiff is the same as Rick Caruso learned out with Karen Bass is reparations if we get a Secular Congress there is a chance for reparations the only one that can win with a blk person is Slotkin, because Gilchrist is interested in Gov not Senator Alsobrooks is also fav in MD but I like JAWANDO

[All Along The Watchtower]

I don't think Feinstein will necessarily croak in a month or two. I think she will just be forced into retirement by friends/family.

Idk, it seems that certain friends are doing their best to prevent her from retiring. I’m sure there are no ulterior, political motives there.

[President Johnson]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

[Zedonathin2020]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Better choice than Barbara Lee or Maxine Watters

[Holmes]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Better choice than Barbara Lee or Maxine Watters

Not better than Lee, can you please be serious.

[Mr. Smith]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Better choice than Barbara Lee or Maxine Watters

No. Just no. 

[NewYorkExpress]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Oprah's not a California resident, so if you want a vehicle for Republicans+Manchin/Sinema refusing to seat her, you have it.

[Sir Mohamed]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Oprah's not a California resident, so if you want a vehicle for Republicans+Manchin/Sinema refusing to seat her, you have it.

Does she have to be? I thought she was.

That said, I doubt she would only be appointed as caretaker till DiFi's term expires. If - and I have my doubts - she would have to run for a full term. That's why I'm relatively certain Newsom would only appoint a placeholder.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Oprah's not a California resident, so if you want a vehicle for Republicans+Manchin/Sinema refusing to seat her, you have it.

Lol she endorsed Obama and said she doesn't want her personal life involved in politics she isn't married and have kids she opened up an. African School though that's why she won't be a Senator Barbara Lee is fine replacement

Tim Scott, Lindsey Grahams, and Cory Booker also failed due to not being married and have kids


She is sponsor the View since the Death of Barb Walters why do you think they keep Whoopi Goldberg's on Rosie ODonnell wants to be the View Facilitator because Of Whoopi Goldberg's

Stacy Abrams already endorsed Lee  Katie Porter is out it's gonna be between Schiff and Lee and Lee will do the Bass like Caruso lost in a Runoff


The press wants to Dive in on her personal life on Steadman she doesn't want to expose her relationship with Steadman

Rosie ODonnell had artificial insemination because she is a Lesbian and Queen Latifa is gay but she needs to go back on TV since Dr Phill is off the air


Users don't look at the ⭐⭐⭐ we already have Barbara Lee she isnt dying my Aunt is 85 yrs old my mom and  Grandma died at 69 yrs old from diabetes that tells you she Barbara Lee isn't dying she is the same age as Maxine Waters

[Zedonathin2020]

Not better than Lee, can you please be serious.

No. Just no. 

What I meant was that she would be a better choice than Lee if Feinstein were to leave office before 2025, not that she would be a better choice altogether.

Appointing Lee, who is already a candidate, would give her an unfair advantage over Porter and Schiff in what should be an open race.

[Tintrlvr]

No idea whether that's serious:

https://twitter.com/SFGate/status/1661046763099242506

Oprah's not a California resident, so if you want a vehicle for Republicans+Manchin/Sinema refusing to seat her, you have it.

Does she have to be? I thought she was.

That said, I doubt she would only be appointed as caretaker till DiFi's term expires. If - and I have my doubts - she would have to run for a full term. That's why I'm relatively certain Newsom would only appoint a placeholder.

I thought Oprah lived in Alpine, New Jersey, but Wikipedia thinks she lives in Montecito, California.

Would be a ridiculous choice either way.

[Хahar 🤔]

We haven't had a meaningful poll since Porter's Nov. internal (a Feb. UC Berkeley poll polled only Dems & non-affiliated voters, making it irrelevant since CA has nonpartisan blanket primaries), & in the meantime since, Porter (30%) got sh*t for announcing during a natural disaster (& not waiting for DiFi) in addition to the Klob-like sh*t she gets everytime a bad employee-treatment story drops, Schiff (29%) entered with Pelosi's support, Lee (9%) got in with the support of Kamala's ex-statewide network (incl. her sister as well as her ex-CoS who's literally running Lee's Super PAC) & pretty much the rest of the Bay Area machine's support (not to mention the support of pretty much every major Black elected official in the state except still-neutrals Maxine Waters & Shirley Weber), significant because regionalism still matters somewhat in CA politics & the Bay Area has notoriously punched above its weight in previous elections (& its machine is currently hoping to retain its hold on DiFi's Senate seat after losing the Boxer/Harris seat to Padilla, nevermind DiFi herself siding with Pelosi in wanting SoCal's to have both seats with Padilla & Schiff), & Khanna (6%) chose not to even get in & instead endorsed Lee.

This analysis is correct in its broad strokes but not exactly accurate in its details. There's some understandable confusion about the nature of the group that wins elections in California. It's true that California is a machine state in a way that few others are, but it doesn't make sense to say that the machine lost a Senate seat when Alex Padilla was appointed, seeing as that he was the handpicked choice of Gavin Newsom. If that were the case, then it would mean either that Newsom's affiliation with the machine was irrelevant to his selection or else that he was never part of the machine to begin with. In either case it wouldn't be a very successful machine. Likewise, Nancy Pelosi very openly coming out for Adam Schiff would indicate that residence is really not all that important.

Politicians supporting Lee are likelier to have close ties to Sacramento, have supported Bernie Sanders in the past, and not be white. By contrast, politicians supporting Schiff are likelier to have closer ties to Washington, have opposed Bernie Sanders in the past, and be white. (No politicians support Porter.) This does mean that Lee's support among elected officials tends to be northern because northerners are disproportionately represented in positions of power in Sacramento and because she herself is a northerner, but I think it's definitely possible to overstate the importance of pure geography. If Lee wins the election she'll have won Los Angeles County.

Newsom will appoint Lee in a few days...

Probably so. I don't think Feinstein is making it through to the 2024 elections.

Frankly, I don't even think she will make it through another month...

Even if DiFi DOES croak in a month or two, I don't think that Newsom would just give Lee an incumbency advantage going into the primaries.

He would absolutely do this. Take a look at all the other appointments Newsom has made to statewide office (and there have been many).

[I’m not Stu]

Who wins San Diego and Orange (if it's Lee vs Porter or Lee vs Schiff)?