Next Senator from California?

[Roll Roons]

Assume Feinstein serves out the rest of her term.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Barbara Lee. Schiff will get first place in the first round but Lee will demolish Schiff in round 2.

[S019]

Schiff

[Rhenna]

Schiff, though I can see Lee winning in a round two. It's really impressive how fast Katie Porter's career has gone up in flames. Went from being a nationally-recognized progressive to a failing Senate candidate reviled by the activist wing and establishment of the party alike. She should drop back down to the House while she can, especially after Min's recent scandal.

[Zedonathin2020]

I still do have reason to believe Porter will pull an upset, though even I admit she is the definition of an underdog.

[Sir Mohamed]

Adam Schiff. I think the D-split between 3 candidates may a help a R-candidate to advance to the runoff.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Schiff, though I can see Lee winning in a round two. It's really impressive how fast Katie Porter's career has gone up in flames. Went from being a nationally-recognized progressive to a failing Senate candidate reviled by the activist wing and establishment of the party alike. She should drop back down to the House while she can, especially after Min's recent scandal.

I don't disagree that she'd probably be better off holding her House district down, but what's the evidence for her career going up in flames, being a failing Senate candidate (10 months before the primary) or being reviled by both the activist/establishment wings?

[Tekken_Guy]

Adam Schiff.

[Zedonathin2020]

Schiff, though I can see Lee winning in a round two. It's really impressive how fast Katie Porter's career has gone up in flames. Went from being a nationally-recognized progressive to a failing Senate candidate reviled by the activist wing and establishment of the party alike. She should drop back down to the House while she can, especially after Min's recent scandal.

I don't disagree that she'd probably be better off holding her House district down, but what's the evidence for her career going up in flames, being a failing Senate candidate (10 months before the primary) or being reviled by both the activist/establishment wings?

I mean we haven’t had a single poll since February and everyone is treating the race as it is perpetually like this:

Lee: 51%

Schiff: 48%

Porter: 1%

Just because she has an endorsement disadvantage doesn't mean she is the next Mo Brooks

[Mr. Smith]

Likely Lee, thank goodness.

Wouldn't have guessed it initially, but the endorsements are sky high, and that matters in a machine state.  It's partially why Kevin deLeon got to so close.

[WalterWhite]

Probably a Democrat

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Porter beats Schiff in the run off

[Minnesota Mike]

Someone help me see the reason for the Lee enthusiasm. Very limited polling but in what polling we have had she trails the two other Democrats badly. She has also raised nowhere near as much money as Schiff or Porter.  I don't have a dog in this fight and would be fine with Lee but as an outsider I just don't see why Lee should be leading this poll.

FWIW I think a generic Republican squeezes into the top 2. The Republican Party in California, such as it is, will probably rally around the least objectionable some dude. Republicans usually take about 40% of the vote in CA, if one Rep candidate can get most of that 40% they likely go to Nov.

[JMT]

Schiff if Feinstein serves the rest of her term. Lee if Feinstein resigns (I think Newsom appoints Lee, and you may see Porter and Schiff drop out if that happens).

[Del Tachi]

Feinstein retires before the end of the summer.  Newsom appoints Shirley Weber.  Weber reelected in 2024. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

Someone help me see the reason for the Lee enthusiasm. Very limited polling but in what polling we have had she trails the two other Democrats badly. She has also raised nowhere near as much money as Schiff or Porter.  I don't have a dog in this fight and would be fine with Lee but as an outsider I just don't see why Lee should be leading this poll.

California is a machine state, Lee has received the types of endorsements relevant to a machine state, and Boss Newsom has promised to appoint a black woman in the increasingly likely event that Feinstein resigns or dies before November 2024.

FWIW I think a generic Republican squeezes into the top 2. The Republican Party in California, such as it is, will probably rally around the least objectionable some dude.

Perhaps, but I wouldn’t underestimate the CAGOP’s ability to self-sabotage!

[All Along The Watchtower]

Feinstein retires before the end of the summer.  Newsom appoints Shirley Weber.  Weber reelected in 2024. 

Weber is also more plausible than Schiff or Porter, yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barbara Lee it's gonna be Barbara Lee v Schiff and Blks turn out more in Runoffs Karen Bass came back from double digits down and won against Caruso that's a warning to Rs thinking Landry has a lock on LA Gov Runoffs now fav Ds

[TwinGeeks99]

Adam Schiff. I think the D-split between 3 candidates may a help a R-candidate to advance to the runoff.

Ironically an R making the top two runoff may actually help Democrats, as it would prevent them from burning money that could be used in Ohio, Montana, and especially Texas on a guaranteed D seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barbara Lee, because it's a Runoff and Karen Bass beat Rick Caruso didn't users remember what happened to Rick Caruso

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Adam Schiff. I think the D-split between 3 candidates may a help a R-candidate to advance to the runoff.

Ironically an R making the top two runoff may actually help Democrats, as it would prevent them from burning money that could be used in Ohio, Montana, and especially Texas on a guaranteed D seat.

Why would the NRSC invest even with a candidate in the runoff?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users forgotten that Schiff is in the same position as Caruso and Bass came back Slotkin and Barbara Lee, Alsobrooks and ALLRED will be Sens

Why do you think they haven't polled it obviously, Porter numbers have gone Downhill

[SevenEleven]

Schiff.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff.

It's a runoff and Bass came back from double digits down with Rick Caruso, Porter is gonna go down to 10 and Lee is gonna go up that's why Lee is on Facebook getting all her endorsements

ALSOBROOKS, Slotkin, Lee, ALLRED are gonna be Senators, I don't care what Biden Approvals are we don't win red states or WI by 11 if Biden is 40 percentage pts it's white women that went to Rs in 22 that are gonna vote D in 24

Porter isn't getting anymore endorsements and neither is Schiff Barbara Lee and Alsobrooks and Slotkin and ALLRED are snatching all endorsements and Rod JOSEPH

Rid Joseph in FL will be known in 24 not 23 Scott is in for a race now

I don't know if users are donating but it clearly tells you on Facebook whom is getting Endorsements Ds aren't getting the endorse of 20 but ahead of 22 it's still a Pandemic

Poor people campaign was instrumental in recruiting and Center Street Pac Tim Ryan, Beto, Gallego and ALLRED, your donations are tax deduction on Poor people not Act blue I donate to Rev Barber only

That's why they keep saying Brown is DOA users dint donate Rev Barber clearly says that OH isn't FL he heavily invested in Tim Ryan's, but FL maybe back blue again

They are invested in Alsobrooks and Lee as well it's a Runoff in CA if Schiff wins it's going to a Runoff he won't get 50 but 46 and lose to Lee in Runoff by getting 30 percentage pts like Rick Caruso while Lee gets 50 there is no viable R in MD and CA but is one in MI that's why Slotkin will win Mejer that's why Stabenow retired

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Adam Schiff. I think the D-split between 3 candidates may a help a R-candidate to advance to the runoff.

Ironically an R making the top two runoff may actually help Democrats, as it would prevent them from burning money that could be used in Ohio, Montana, and especially Texas on a guaranteed D seat.

Why would the NRSC invest even with a candidate in the runoff?

The NRSC wouldn't invest, but I would expect two D campaigns (and D supporting outside groups) to raise and spend boatloads of money.  Senate democrats would likely prefer that the race doesn't take oxygen away  from seats that would actually affect Senate control.