The 2022 Midterms do NOT foreshadow Biden's 2024 win

[soundchaser]

I understand that lower-propensity Republicans will be voting in large numbers in 2024 and that changes things (though it also completely ignores that turnout will be higher for Democrats too)

To this point: Republicans had a turnout advantage in 2014 22. That's unlikely to be repeated in 2016 24.

We know what happened next.

Trump won Independents? 2016 was not a turnout victory.

[TodayJunior]

I've never pretended that 2024 is not winnable for Trump, but if you don't think 2022 was a bad sign for the GOP then you're completely delusional. If Republicans want to ignore 2022 the same way Democrats ignored their own red flags from 2018 then be my guest.

C’mon man! Let’s be bold here!
2024 is completely unwinnable for Donald Trump under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES!!
I’m all in on this! There may be no one else who loathes DJT more than me!

[TodayJunior]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

Hillary did an excellent job winning 2016, and we can't forget how 2010 and 2014 worked out with GW Bush and Iraq as such good motivators!

And of course, Iraq or no, it'd be silly to expect the party of Lewinsky to win in 2008!

Hey waita second...

2016 is not comparable whatsoever for a few pretty clear reasons:

1. This is a rematch. The GOP doesn’t have the luxury of running against a loathesome nominee.

2. Trump-2016 was a complete outsider with ZERO record of governing, so he was able to truly run on that. Now? Hah!! Plus the suburbs hadn’t collapsed for the gop at that time. Now they have.

3. Dems didn’t seriously contest Wisconsin or Michigan, and those were true stunners. That ls not happening ever again. Plus, other than Nevada, what other state could the gop possibly pickoff out of the Clinton-2016 states? NH? Nope! Plus, Georgia and Arizona are now tossups (at best case for the GOP), so that’s another 2-dozen EV the gop now would have to claw back to have a shot at remaining relevant.

4. The fundamentals. Unemployment is at 3.5%, inflation is slowing. Many of these things Biden has no control over but things are generally moving in the right direction. You can easily blame the previous admin for these things.

So there you go!! This is why Dems cannot lose 2024 even if they tried. Everyone knows the gop is a disaster outside their base of 218 electoral votes. And that’s being kind! They may have a very high floor, but their ceiling is almost the same - 45-47%

[Roronoa D. Law]

It may not foreshadow Biden win but their performance in many swing state last year should be a spot for concern for the GOP. They kind of just held on to Johnson seat and the row offices of Georgia. 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

A common, oft-repeated take on this site is that the 2022 midterms forecast Biden's 2024 victory. The argument here is that Democrats won in 2022 despite Biden's low approvals and high inflation, so Biden will supposedly win again in 2024 despite his low approvals and high inflation. The underlying premise  is that the 2022 midterms were a direct referendum on Biden: votes for Democrats were votes for Biden; votes for Republicans were votes against Biden.

The fault here is that this site overlooks the real cause of the Republican' underperformance in the 2022 midterms -- poor candidate quality on the Republicans' side. Many of the GOP candidates who lost were inexperienced and poor communicators. They often failed to raise funds, draw people to rallies, and deliver a good message. Some of them also campaigned on unpopular Trumpisms, particularly the lie that the 2020 election was stolen by fraud; and they spoke too often about what's wrong with the country instead of what they'd do.  Thus, the 2022 midterm elections were a narrow reaction to the candidates on the 2022 ballot, not Biden generally.


As evidence, we can see that the good Republican candidates often did well whereas bad Republican candidates (often endorsed by Trump) did badly:

1).  In Ohio, Senator Vance was the Trump-endorsed candidate who didn't have much of a political background, and his campaign even needed $35 million help from Mitch McConnell's super-PAC. Although Vance won by 7%, he underperformed all the GOPs in OHIO: Governor DeWine got 380k more votes, the GOP attorney general got 248k more votes, the GOP auditor got 201k more votes etc. The conclusion is that Vance's performance was more about him specifically , not Biden or the Republicans generally

2). In AZ, Trump's guy Blake Masters lost to Mark Kelly by 126k votes, which was 4.9%; the GOP secretary of state (who claimed the 2020 election was stolen) lost by 120k votes; and Kari Lake lost her gubernatorial race. However, Kimberly Yee, who had no ties to Trump or the stolen election claim, won her election by 11.2%, getting 100k more votes than Kari Lake and about 200k more votes than Blake Masters. Thus, the reasonable conclusion is that Masters & Lake lost because they were bad Republican candidates who lacked political skills and political experience; their losses were narrow, specific reactions to them, not Biden. Yee's win shows that a good Republican candidate can win

I agree that the midterms don't indicate strength for Biden but the I think the results had less to do with candidate quality and more to do with impressively bad targeting and fundraising by the national Republicans (and to a lesser extent Trump).

Case in point, Masters ended up getting about as much funding from McConnell as Joe O'Dea in Colorado. While Masters may not have been an incredible candidate, he certainly had a better shot at victory than Joe O'Dea, but geriatric brainrot had the RNC convinced that he was "electable" and Masters wasn't. Basically every key Senate race had the Democrat outspend the Republican by tens of millions of dollars, and the bizarre targeting of money by the RNC convinced Republicans to donate to Trump instead, creating a kind of fundraising deathspiral.

To make things even worse, the Republicans used their money less efficiently, wasting money on enriching grifting "analysts" when Democrats were greasing up powerful VBM GOTV campaigns. The few states where Republicans did use their money well saw outsized returns, most notably North Carolina where they realized that online advertising is a thing and as a result did orders of magnitude better with young voters than Republican campaigns basically everywhere else.

Most Republican strategists earned their stripes in a time when the Republican path to victory was to depress turnout as much as possible and be carried by their dominance with rich white retired suburbanites who always vote and fill their coffers with cash. But the post-Trump Republican party is increasingly dependent on convincing Obama-Trump voters to show up and the post-Biden Democratic party is stronger than ever with "supervoters". Arguably Lake's loss was in part the result of the Maricopa Republicans restricting the number of polling stations, costing her critical election day votes.

It's pretty obvious when you look at the House results compared by the relative change from 2020. In states where there was no competitive Senate election ie. the bluest and reddest states the Republicans made huge gains, whereas the "swing states" that saw absurd spending were the ones that Democrats did best in. At the time there were some weird explanations involving voters deciding based on "abortion rights 4d chess" but the simplest explanation for why Florida, New York and California all trended the same way when Michigan and Pennsylvania went the other is superior funding and organization, not that George Santos was a stronger candidate than JD Vance.

This is the perfect analysis. 2022 was all about money and turnout.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Biden is running against the guy who won by 19 points in a state Biden only lost by 3, then yeah he has a reason to be concerned. If he’s running against the deeply unpopular former president who had proxies running and losing every swing state race then that’s another story entirely.

You really expect there are voters who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Kari Lake, Tim Michels, Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker, Adam Laxalt, or Blake Masters in 2022, but will suddenly vote for Trump in 2024?

[Cyrusman]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

This is cute coming from the guy who thought it was mathematically impossible for Desantis to win FL by anywhere close to 20.

[TodayJunior]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

This is cute coming from the guy who thought it was mathematically impossible for Desantis to win FL by anywhere close to 20.

Sure! Ok. You got me. Congratulations!!!

The results in Florida are no longer representative of the nation as a whole. Ya know what’s REALLY REALLY “cute” about all of this is that if/when DeSewage actually gets in, Trump will eat his breakfast, 2nd breakfast, 3rd breakfast, lunch, supper, and midnight snack  and STILL run circles around him at his old age. He’ll be so damaged by the time the primaries actually begin, he might pull a Kamala. The sudden tepidness of his launching an exploratory committee pisses off literally everyone in the GOP. MAGA hates him for challenging the Dear Leader, and his own supporters sense weakness - just jump in Ron we know you want to! They say.

What Dems lost in Florida, they more than made up for in Arizona, Georgia, and re-solidifying Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin (to be fair, the GOP could still win WI.)

I will have the last laugh on this and once Disney kicks Ron’s teeth in, he’ll be the laughingstock of the nation.

I need to start a GoFundMe for all the popcorn I will be consuming while laughing at them tear each other to smitherines!!!!

[Alben Barkley]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

Hillary did an excellent job winning 2016, and we can't forget how 2010 and 2014 worked out with GW Bush and Iraq as such good motivators!

And of course, Iraq or no, it'd be silly to expect the party of Lewinsky to win in 2008!

Hey waita second...

Pretending any of those things were even remotely as relevant and omnipresent in people’s lives and political culture as Dobbs/abortion is idiotic, so much so it almost seems like you’re being intentionally obtuse, but that’s probably giving you too much credit. Roe was a huge motivator for the GOP for decades.

The “party of Lewinsky” one is an especially weak stretch. Not only because a decade later is much later than even the initial Dobbs ruling will be to the 2024 election, let alone its still present fallout, but also because Clinton’s approval ratings skyrocketed during the impeachment and he remained a popular president in 2008. It was never at any point harmful politically to Democrats, and Gore fearing it would be is one reason why 2000 went down the way it did.

[Skill and Chance]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

Hillary did an excellent job winning 2016, and we can't forget how 2010 and 2014 worked out with GW Bush and Iraq as such good motivators!

And of course, Iraq or no, it'd be silly to expect the party of Lewinsky to win in 2008!

Hey waita second...

Pretending any of those things were even remotely as relevant and omnipresent in people’s lives and political culture as Dobbs/abortion is idiotic, so much so it almost seems like you’re being intentionally obtuse, but that’s probably giving you too much credit. Roe was a motivator for the GOP for decades…

If it was a 14th Amendment fetal personhood ruling from SCOTUS (i.e. all states that criminalize murder of adults are constitutionally obligated to apply the same penalties to abortion), then I would agree with you.  It would be 100% turnout in Madison, Austin, etc. for a generation.  If it's leave it all to the states, that's a more stable equilibrium after a couple years of backlash.  As long as Trump is the nominee and sticks to that position, I don't think 2024 will be primarily about abortion.  2026 could be, though.

[Mr. Smith]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

Hillary did an excellent job winning 2016, and we can't forget how 2010 and 2014 worked out with GW Bush and Iraq as such good motivators!

And of course, Iraq or no, it'd be silly to expect the party of Lewinsky to win in 2008!

Hey waita second...

2016 is not comparable whatsoever for a few pretty clear reasons:

1. This is a rematch. The GOP doesn’t have the luxury of running against a loathesome nominee.

2. Trump-2016 was a complete outsider with ZERO record of governing, so he was able to truly run on that. Now? Hah!! Plus the suburbs hadn’t collapsed for the gop at that time. Now they have.

3. Dems didn’t seriously contest Wisconsin or Michigan, and those were true stunners. That ls not happening ever again. Plus, other than Nevada, what other state could the gop possibly pickoff out of the Clinton-2016 states? NH? Nope! Plus, Georgia and Arizona are now tossups (at best case for the GOP), so that’s another 2-dozen EV the gop now would have to claw back to have a shot at remaining relevant.

4. The fundamentals. Unemployment is at 3.5%, inflation is slowing. Many of these things Biden has no control over but things are generally moving in the right direction. You can easily blame the previous admin for these things.

So there you go!! This is why Dems cannot lose 2024 even if they tried. Everyone knows the gop is a disaster outside their base of 218 electoral votes. And that’s being kind! They may have a very high floor, but their ceiling is almost the same - 45-47%

All I'm saying, is that things change and there's still time and blaming the previous admin in the distance for an issue only stretches so far. Trying to guess the big issue is folly and the moment someone else creates a movement with a message/direction, that's the fundamentals.

And the EC is what counts, and that means the GOP only need to cast just enough doubt on Biden to slip through just enough in key states.

Is Trump the most likely person for this? No. But he wasn't the most likely person the first time either, even if the general message certainly was.  On the other hand, all the doubt casting could backfire and perhaps AZ/GA/PA/MI all swing far enough of D to re-position the EC.

But for now, it's straw-grasping for both sides.

[TodayJunior]

It most certainly does!! Dems are going to be use Dobbs and Don for years to come. As long as Trump is alive, expect the Dems to keep using this playbook, and win.

Does that sound arrogant? Perhaps. But it’s true. The gop is stuck in perpetual L’s. But they brought this on themselves.

Hillary did an excellent job winning 2016, and we can't forget how 2010 and 2014 worked out with GW Bush and Iraq as such good motivators!

And of course, Iraq or no, it'd be silly to expect the party of Lewinsky to win in 2008!

Hey waita second...

2016 is not comparable whatsoever for a few pretty clear reasons:

1. This is a rematch. The GOP doesn’t have the luxury of running against a loathesome nominee.

2. Trump-2016 was a complete outsider with ZERO record of governing, so he was able to truly run on that. Now? Hah!! Plus the suburbs hadn’t collapsed for the gop at that time. Now they have.

3. Dems didn’t seriously contest Wisconsin or Michigan, and those were true stunners. That ls not happening ever again. Plus, other than Nevada, what other state could the gop possibly pickoff out of the Clinton-2016 states? NH? Nope! Plus, Georgia and Arizona are now tossups (at best case for the GOP), so that’s another 2-dozen EV the gop now would have to claw back to have a shot at remaining relevant.

4. The fundamentals. Unemployment is at 3.5%, inflation is slowing. Many of these things Biden has no control over but things are generally moving in the right direction. You can easily blame the previous admin for these things.

So there you go!! This is why Dems cannot lose 2024 even if they tried. Everyone knows the gop is a disaster outside their base of 218 electoral votes. And that’s being kind! They may have a very high floor, but their ceiling is almost the same - 45-47%

All I'm saying, is that things change and there's still time and blaming the previous admin in the distance for an issue only stretches so far. Trying to guess the big issue is folly and the moment someone else creates a movement with a message/direction, that's the fundamentals.

And the EC is what counts, and that means the GOP only need to cast just enough doubt on Biden to slip through just enough in key states.

Is Trump the most likely person for this? No. But he wasn't the most likely person the first time either, even if the general message certainly was.  On the other hand, all the doubt casting could backfire and perhaps AZ/GA/PA/MI all swing far enough of D to re-position the EC.

But for now, it's straw-grasping for both sides.

Fair point that things change, but the fact of the matter is we are in a new era post-Covid and post-Dobbs, which favors the Dems in every election going forward. Until republicans realize this, making any comparisons to pre-covid and pre-Dobbs really don’t apply. Democrats are just better at adapting to change than republicans are, which is why they currently run and win everything in the places that decide elections.

Will republicans win eventually? Sure. Probably 2032 at the earliest since they’ll have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the present age we’re currently in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it did we kept WI, PA and MI

[Steve from Lambeth]

So you bring up all these Trump-endorsed candidates that lost. Who do you think the GOP is going to nominate in 2024?

Barkari Sellars. Who else will make Eday 2024 a 503 Ds map with wave insurance and 92)65 PV and supporting Poor Peoples Campaign to stop Senate Rs whom are trying to cut Social Security and Student loan Forgiveness in this 2020 COVID Environment?