More likely to lose in 2026: Abbott or Hochul?

[Sir Mohamed]

Both didn't do that well in 2022, especially the latter. Both are governors of a big state with a partisan lean and most likely are going to run again 2026. Who do you think is more likely to lose that year?

I'm unsure, as there are cases for both to make and we don't know who will be POTUS. As of today, I'd still say Hochul, if forced. Still, I expect neither to actually lose in the end.

[Spectator]

Opposite party of whoever the president is. People get tired of Governors that have been there a while though. Rick Perry and Andrew Cuomo did pretty bad in their last elections compared to the baseline. Mario Cuomo famously lost. So Abbott might have a fatigue factor to worry about in a Trump midterm.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Right now Hochul, because it seems both sides hate her, whereas at least Abbott is supported by the R base.

[Tekken_Guy]

Abbott if Trump is president, Hochul if Biden.

[wnwnwn]

Primary?: Hochul
General?: Abbott

[Ferguson97]

Abbott. NY GOP had everything going for them in '22, and still came up short. I don't think the GOP can win a statewide race in NY at the current time.

[Duke of York]

Hochul I could see losing a primary. A general? No.

[President Johnson]

Abbott. NY GOP had everything going for them in '22, and still came up short. I don't think the GOP can win a statewide race in NY at the current time.

This.

With that being said, I don't see either losing regardless of who is president, though Abbott may hold on be a slim margin if Democrats have a good night. I could see Hochul winning by more than in 2022 the next time. Or maybe she retires, even though I expect her to run for one more term.

[Samof94]

Likewise, had Hillary been President in 2018, the GOP could have won Oregon.

[Duke of York]

Abbott. NY GOP had everything going for them in '22, and still came up short. I don't think the GOP can win a statewide race in NY at the current time.

This.

With that being said, I don't see either losing regardless of who is president, though Abbott may hold on be a slim margin if Democrats have a good night. I could see Hochul winning by more than in 2022 the next time. Or maybe she retires, even though I expect her to run for one more term.

Part the reason Hochul did so badly was she ran a terrible campaign and hardly campaigned.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Abbott

[Schiff for Senate]

Abbott if Trump is president, Hochul if Biden.

This.

The upside if Trump wins in November is the sheer havoc that will be unleashed against the GOP in 2026.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Abbott if Trump is president, Hochul if Biden.

This.

The upside if Trump wins in November is the sheer havoc that will be unleashed against the GOP in 2026.

It's the only upside.

[SWE]

Abbott regardless of who wins in November. Even in a second Biden term, Abbott losing is an unrealistic pipedream, but Hochul losing is a delusional fantasy