Over/Under on Kansas

[SaneDemocrat]

Assuming Biden-Trump

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump will win it by double digits unless Biden can somehow make gains in rural counties.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump by 10ish

[seskoog]

My guess is R+9

[Spectator]

Trump by 11

[President Johnson]

Trump by 11

That would be my prediction as well. Something like 54-43%.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Decent chance it ends up closer than 2020, but I have doubts it would be within 10 points. Put me down for Trump +12

[TDAS04]

Biden could hold Trump to 8 or 9.

[SaneDemocrat]

My theory is that the 2022 referendum+Laura Kelly energized the Dem base somewhat and people feel that their vote matters. Trump+9.8 for me.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kansas is under 10 points. Trump 2024= Abrams 2022

[Sir Mohamed]

We'll see single digit KS at some point, I'm sure, though more likely to happen in the election Dems win next after 2024.

I don't have a crystal ball here, but if I had to make prediction, my estimation would be +13 in 2024. 56-43%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Close to 10, but probably over.

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably closer than ten points.

On what evidence are you basing this? While state is slightly trending Dem, I don't see we're in single digit territory yet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump will win it by double digits unless Biden can somehow make gains in rural counties.

Disagree - truly rural KS is so rural it makes up a pretty small minority of the states population. Part of the reason KS swung decently left in 2020 was not only because Biden improved in Johnson County, but he improved in these smaller towns/cities like Wichita, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan, Junction City, Lakin, and Emporia. I think these are the types of places closer to the center of KS political gravity and will decide how KS swings in 2024.

Agree Johnson County alone isn't enough to swing the state much - it's not even 1/4th of the population.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Trump won Kansas 56.0-41.4 in 2020, a bad election for him and the election after Kelly's first term began. I'm not seeing how it just swings to Biden by 2.5+ points.

[White Cloud]

I got curious once and decided to run some numbers and see what it would take for Kansas to even vote to the left of Iowa in a presidential election. Not talking about a Dem winning Kansas, just voting to the left of Iowa. What I found is that it would take such a leftward shift in the state that it's almost implausible that it would happen. Johnson County would have to start voting like Hennepin County, Minnesota.

[White Cloud]

Trump will win it by double digits unless Biden can somehow make gains in rural counties.

Disagree - truly rural KS is so rural it makes up a pretty small minority of the states population. Part of the reason KS swung decently left in 2020 was not only because Biden improved in Johnson County, but he improved in these smaller towns/cities like Wichita, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan, Junction City, Lakin, and Emporia. I think these are the types of places closer to the center of KS political gravity and will decide how KS swings in 2024.

Agree Johnson County alone isn't enough to swing the state much - it's not even 1/4th of the population.

But the swing from 2016 to 2020 isn't necessarily evidence of a trend, it's just a swing from one election to another. For example, Biden received 42.6% of the vote in Sedgwick County in 2020. But if you go back to 2008, Obama received 42.5% in Sedgwick County. In 2012 and 2016, Dems dipped into the 30s in Sedgwick County. So rather than a trend, this could be seen as more of a high-water mark that could easily fall back. This is even more true when you consider that Biden is, without question, less popular than he was in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump+12.