What evidence would you need to see in 2024 to say Biden/Trump are better/worse than generic D/R?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Curious what your takes are.

[Spectator]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

[Spectator]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

Doesn’t have to be results. Could be polling, primaries, or other factors IMO.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

[Spectator]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

Maybe check your reading comprehension.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

Maybe check your reading comprehension.

I replied you to clarify because you clearly have no reading comprehension, which is why you didn't answer the question at all.

[Spectator]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

Maybe check your reading comprehension.

I replied you to clarify because you clearly have no reading comprehension, which is why you didn't answer the question at all.

Based on BG-NY’s reply, clearly I did.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

Maybe check your reading comprehension.

I replied you to clarify because you clearly have no reading comprehension, which is why you didn't answer the question at all.

Based on BG-NY’s reply, clearly I did.

He said any sort of factors as evidence such as polling or primaries. What evidence did you cute? You just have your opinions based on your gut.

[Spectator]

How they do in comparison to the next-most-likely to be the nominee. Trump and DeSabtis perform virtually the same, so I don’t think there’s any real electability argument there. Biden does consistently way better than Harris, although that may just be because Harris is uniquely weak rather than any particular strength of Biden on his own. If the nominee were someone like Gretchen Whitmer instead, I think she’d do at least as well as Biden. Maybe better.

That's not the question. I'll try to clarify it.
What evidence would you need to see in the 2024 results to prove that Trump is a stronger candidate than a Generic R?
And the same for Biden and Generic D.

So are you saying you’re a sock of BG-NY? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, they asked the question, not you.

Well it was a pretty obvious question and you didn't answer it at all, instead talking about which candidate you think you'll be better.

Maybe check your reading comprehension.

I replied you to clarify because you clearly have no reading comprehension, which is why you didn't answer the question at all.

Based on BG-NY’s reply, clearly I did.

He said any sort of factors as evidence such as polling or primaries. What evidence did you cute? You just have your opinions based on your gut.

I made it easy for you. Both those statements are true based on current polling.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Gallego gets more votes than Biden. Right now I’m expecting Nc Senate 2020 numbers but
With the parties reversed, where both the D and the R get less of the vote than the r nominee but the R underperforms by more. But if Gallego gets more votes than Biden that pretty much seals the deal lol

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

My priors are that both are worse, but Biden runs even further behind the generic D than Trump does behind the generic R. We need to look no further than the favorability/approval numbers of each candidate for evidence.

I also think that Senate races inherently favor Democrats now (compared to House/Gubernational/President races), due to Dobbs and the perception that the Senate appoints Supreme Court candidates. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump do similar to the 2022 GCB vote (or slightly worse), while the Senate looks like 2022 or bluer.

[MT Treasurer]

At least one eye and one ear

[DaleCooper]

Trump is worse than generic R for obvious reasons.

For Biden it is a bit more complicated, even though the answer is definitely that he is worse than a generic D. If we're talking about 2020 generic Ds, when they were all racing to the bottom trying to be the most progressive, race-baiting anti-Trump hacks they could in a desperate attempt to be the presidential nominee, then absolutely Biden was better. Now, generic D refers to people like Shapiro, Whitmer, Warnock, Gallego, Kelly, Beshear, etc. Your average Democrat elected official outside of New York or California is a million times better and more electable than Biden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump is worse than generic R for obvious reasons.

For Biden it is a bit more complicated, even though the answer is definitely that he is worse than a generic D. If we're talking about 2020 generic Ds, when they were all racing to the bottom trying to be the most progressive, race-baiting anti-Trump hacks they could in a desperate attempt to be the presidential nominee, then absolutely Biden was better. Now, generic D refers to people like Shapiro, Whitmer, Warnock, Gallego, Kelly, Beshear, etc. Your average Democrat elected official outside of New York or California is a million times better and more electable than Biden.

I disagree with Gallego/Warnock being in that list but the others work

[DaleCooper]

Trump is worse than generic R for obvious reasons.

For Biden it is a bit more complicated, even though the answer is definitely that he is worse than a generic D. If we're talking about 2020 generic Ds, when they were all racing to the bottom trying to be the most progressive, race-baiting anti-Trump hacks they could in a desperate attempt to be the presidential nominee, then absolutely Biden was better. Now, generic D refers to people like Shapiro, Whitmer, Warnock, Gallego, Kelly, Beshear, etc. Your average Democrat elected official outside of New York or California is a million times better and more electable than Biden.

I disagree with Gallego/Warnock being in that list but the others work

Ossoff probably would've been a better example. Warnock is a uniquely strong candidate in my opinion, now that I think about it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump is worse than generic R for obvious reasons.

For Biden it is a bit more complicated, even though the answer is definitely that he is worse than a generic D. If we're talking about 2020 generic Ds, when they were all racing to the bottom trying to be the most progressive, race-baiting anti-Trump hacks they could in a desperate attempt to be the presidential nominee, then absolutely Biden was better. Now, generic D refers to people like Shapiro, Whitmer, Warnock, Gallego, Kelly, Beshear, etc. Your average Democrat elected official outside of New York or California is a million times better and more electable than Biden.

I disagree with Gallego/Warnock being in that list but the others work

Ossoff probably would've been a better example. Warnock is a uniquely strong candidate in my opinion, now that I think about it.

Yeah, Warnock is average with whites but he's above generic D with black voters in my opinion. It's not the fact that he's black but he's a black PASTOR. That's really appealing. A normal democrat would have probably done even worse with religious african americans in 2022, given dobbs

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Bumping this. Has anything changed in the past 10 months?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No. Both candidates are obviously worse than generic, with Biden by more.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I suspect that Joe Biden is performing a bit worse than a generic Democrat would, but not by a whole lot - and I'd probably need to see how approval ratings, his reaction to Gaza, and suchlike were being received by Democratic groups.

Donald Trump is the generic Republican at this point (but see my earlier theory on this matter).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Literally just Joe Biden vs House PV (assuming there isn't a huge skew in the uncontested seats).