Cause of Biden's underestimation?
Redban:
I remember watching the 2020 Democratic primary unfurl at the time. Biden at the time wasn't considered a powerhouse candidate by anyone, and many though Bernie or one of the newer faces (e.g. Kloubachar, Warren) would take it
But looking back the numbers now --- it seems Biden had consistently led the polls going back 2 years, often by wide margins
For the Dem nomination, he led the runner-up Bernie by over 10% from November 2018 through April 2019. And then from about May 2019 through October 2019, Biden led Bernie by roughly 15-20%. In late September, Warren had a surge where she seemed to match or surpass Biden, and in Feb 2020, Bernie pulled ahead by 10% in the polls. But in both instances, Biden quickly pulled ahead by double-digits, making me question if Warren or Bernie were really ahead by such large margins in the first place ( https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls )
Likewise, Biden dominated the head-to-head polls against Trump, beginning years before the election. From March 2018 through January 2020, Biden was often ahead of Trump by 10-15% in all polls, crossing above the significant 50% mark in many of them. In 2020, his margin over Trump got smaller, but he usually hovered in the 6-8% range over Trump, again usually crossing above the 50% mark in many of those polls. There were very few non-Rasmussen polls that had Biden trailing Trump (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls )
The strength that Biden demonstrated in the polls kinda makes it odd that people understimated him so much. What made people underestimate him? ... was it his age? his appearance? his previous failed attempts at the Presidency?
Mr. Smith:
What was Obama's or Carter's? No substantive results!
He got bailed out by South Carolina, after terrible results everywhere else first. That brought back faith. What a shame.
EJ24:
A lot of it boils down to wishcasting and wishful thinking by his political opponents, both on the left and right.
I remember on this board a lot of people saying Biden wouldn't make it out of the first debate because he's such a doddering idiot, but I looked at the actual evidence of his support within the party (specifically black voters) and therefore I never had much doubt he would be there until the end. And sure enough, he won the primary big after South Carolina.
Same thing happened in the general, except this time it was right wingers saying he was the doddering idiot who couldn't string a sentence together. They ignored evidence and instead wishcasted.
There's always this "smoking gun" with Biden that will supposedly be his political albatross and bring him down once and for all, except it just doesn't materalize the way these people think it will. Some examples:
"Biden won't win because of the crime bill!"
"Biden won't win because of his Iraq war vote!"
"Biden won't win because he sniffed some girl one time!"
"Biden won't win because he said you ain't black to Charlamagne!"
And so on.
RussFeingoldWasRobbed:
Wishful thinking by many, myself included. He has surprised me for the better though(other than Garland, he's done a great job)
Landslide Lyndon:
Ageism and sneering dismissal of his likability and political skills.
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