NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Spectator]

His education commissioner is openly considering a bid for Governor. Seems like even if he decides not to run for President that Sununu won’t run for re-election.

https://thepulseofnh.com/news/politics-news/edelblut-considering-a-run-for-governor/

[Duke of York]

I can't imagine his education commissioner would be considering a bid if Sununu was running for reelection.

[Spectator]

I can't imagine his education commissioner would be considering a bid if Sununu was running for reelection.

Needless to say, I think it would start out as Leans D at least. Sununu seems to be the only Republican New Hampshire will care to entertain at the federal or gubernatorial level.

[Nyvin]

It's also looking like Joyce Craig (Manchester Mayor) is clearing the field on the D side.

I think she'd be an awesome candidate frankly.

[Badger]

It's also looking like Joyce Craig (Manchester Mayor) is clearing the field on the D side.

I think she'd be an awesome candidate frankly.

Particularly given that Manchester is not only the largest city in the state and highly competitive, that's a great base to start from.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's also looking like Joyce Craig (Manchester Mayor) is clearing the field on the D side.

I think she'd be an awesome candidate frankly.

Particularly given that Manchester is not only the largest city in the state and highly competitive, that's a great base to start from.

Almost knocking off a Republican incumbent in 2015, when Obama was president, looks impressive.

[Sir Mohamed]

I can't imagine his education commissioner would be considering a bid if Sununu was running for reelection.

Needless to say, I think it would start out as Leans D at least. Sununu seems to be the only Republican New Hampshire will care to entertain at the federal or gubernatorial level.

I'd be more inclined to say it depends on the candidates, especially on the GOP side. A Sununu or Hogan type could either hold this seat or at least keep it highly competitive even while Biden wins reelection or at least the state of NH on the same ballot. However, it's possible if not likely the GOP is going to nominate another MAGA weirdo who ends up losing by a solid margin.

[Duke of York]

I can't imagine his education commissioner would be considering a bid if Sununu was running for reelection.

Needless to say, I think it would start out as Leans D at least. Sununu seems to be the only Republican New Hampshire will care to entertain at the federal or gubernatorial level.

I'd be more inclined to say it depends on the candidates, especially on the GOP side. A Sununu or Hogan type could either hold this seat or at least keep it highly competitive even while Biden wins reelection or at least the state of NH on the same ballot. However, it's possible if not likely the GOP is going to nominate another MAGA weirdo who ends up losing by a solid margin.

If Sununu doesn't run I think its very likely they nominate someone far right.

[President Johnson]

Interesting, this could be a golden opportunity for a Democratic pickup. Especially when Republicans nominate a MAGA nutjob.

Sununu might be of the rare species of politicians that at some point just feel their job in public service is done and gracefully retire before they're either voted out, have health issues or are forced to leave for other reasons. Otherwise he would have gone for the senate last year. Seems like his main reason wasn't even the concern to lose, but that he didn't see what to accomplish in the senate.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'll believe Sununu is not running when he makes that announcement and even then I would be wary he could change his mind. NH has one of the latest primaries in the nation, he could run for president and then when he inevitably gets he crushed could still file for re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's also looking like Joyce Craig (Manchester Mayor) is clearing the field on the D side.

I think she'd be an awesome candidate frankly.

Craig actually isn't clearing the field. Cinde Warmington from the Executive Council is also considering. That's the same office Sununu came from.

[Nyvin]

It's also looking like Joyce Craig (Manchester Mayor) is clearing the field on the D side.

I think she'd be an awesome candidate frankly.

Craig actually isn't clearing the field. Cinde Warmington from the Executive Council is also considering. That's the same office Sununu came from.

That'd be an interesting primary actually.  I know Joyce Craig and Chris Pappas are good allies of each other, and I'd assume Warmington would have Ann Kuster's support most likely.   

I still feel like Joyce Craig would have an advantage since she's in local press a lot more often since she can actually do things and Warmington is more muted by being in the minority.

[free my dawg]

Let me cope, dammit.

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1643686033802895384?t=TZATHW_tvFNdpI6M...

[Epaminondas]

Any betting markets on Sununu joining the presidential fray?

Right now there doesn't seem to be much reason for him not to jump in, given that less able politicians are already in, snatching up 3-4% of the polling and getting their time in the limelight.

[Nyvin]

Warmington officially announced today.  I still think Joyce Craig has the advantage, but both candidates are pretty good.

[MuskieMoment]

Any chance Pappas jumps back in?

[President Johnson]

Just move to four year terms already.

[Хahar 🤔]

Just move to four year terms already.

Why?

[President Johnson]

Just move to four year terms already.

Why?

Because there needs to be some time to govern. Electing a chief executive each two years is kind of weird; you're almost in a constant campaign mode. 48 other states adopted four terms as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just move to four year terms already.

Why?

Because there needs to be some time to govern. Electing a chief executive each two years is kind of weird; you're almost in a constant campaign mode. 48 other states adopted four terms as well.

Joyce Craig is gonna be Gov anyway

[Ferguson97]

I figure he forgoes another term for governor and instead makes a bid for the White House.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/CindeWarmington/status/1664243626258444289

Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is officially in.

It's gonna be interesting because there isn't really a progressive vs. establishment divide in the primary (see: Hassan/Cilley, Feltes/Volinsky, Marchand/Van Ostern and Kelly). This is more on geographic lines - Craig has long-standing ties to Manchester, labor, and party officials, while Warmington is getting support from Concord, elected officials, and her district. Warmington also has ties to the Shaheens.

I think the primary will be a toss-up, bar anything else. Both candidates have strong connections to the state establishment and I don't foresee a coronation like 2022 or 2018-SoS. Warmington is the more "progressive" candidate, I guess, but doesn't have the ties to the movement that Volinsky or Marchand had. I support Warmington but I'm probably voting for Craig in the general unless she comes out against legalization. I'm much less strict statewide than I am nationally.   

Warmington is the best pick to take on Craig. The advantage of representing the hell-snake that is EC-2 is that she's connected everywhere besides Manchester/Nashua. She has a ton of local Democratic, mayoral, and even Congressional endorsements from Somersworth to Keene. The Seacoast is probably the main battleground - if Warmington can get out to a lead in Portsmouth, Exeter, and Hampton, she wins.

FWIW I still expect Sununu to retire. Then again, I've been coping for his entire gubernatorial term, so take it with a grain of salt. He's also flip-flopped on abortion and Don't Say Gay. If he does, the primary is surely Frank Edelblut's to lose.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I figure he forgoes another term for governor and instead makes a bid for the White House.

It’s funny because I could’ve sworn he already had announced Or was basically confirmed as running.

[Holmes]

Well he's not running for president. Is the jury still out on whether or not he's retiring?

[Meatball Ron]

SawxDem, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the fact that Edelblut is considering a run should, alone, be interpreted as a sign that Sununu will retire. My understanding is that Edelblut is not super establishment / a loyal Sununu-ite. He ran against Sununu in the 2016 primary, as a significantly more conservative candidate, and Sununu appointed him to the Ed Commissioner role presumably in part to appease / gain support from the large swath of NH GOP voters who are to Sununu's right.

FWIW, I also think Sununu will probably retire, but I just don't think the potential Edelblut candidacy is necessarily a sign of that.