My timeline

[BushKerry04]

October 10, 2040: State of play after the first presidential and vice presidential debates
Senator Duckworth and Vice President Cruz debated, and most of the pundits and polls showed Duckworth won handily. A Gallup poll of debate watchers found she won the vice presidential debate, 47%-37%. By contrast, the first presidential debate was closer; 47% said I won while 42% said the President won. Our campaign paid for a focus group of 500 voters in five swing states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas, Nevada, and South Carolina). What our data showed was, I won handily on when discussing my economic program, abortion rights, and climate change. However, the President enjoyed a slight advantage on trade. While I had success in getting popular support for my policy proposals, voters felt the President was more relatable. After the debate, those in charge of the focus group asked these swing voters a detailed group of questions. When asked which candidate demonstrated a better understanding of the issues, I won by a 59%-41% margin. Similarly, on the question of which candidate would best address issues that are of concern to voters, I won 57%-43%. Conversely, when asked which candidate could better relate to voters, the President won, 54%-45%. And on which candidate understands people like them, the President won 60%-40%. However, voters do state that I better share their values, 53%-47%.

Despite a successful debate night for me and an even better debate for Senator Duckworth, national polls show the race has tightened over the past three weeks, albeit not by much. After Labor Day, I was ahead by 5% in polling averages. Now, according to my campaign's internal polling, we are ahead by 3%. President Vance continues to enjoy a leads in Ohio (47%-43%) and Florida (49%-44%), and has moved ahead in Tennessee (49%-42%), enjoys a small lead in New Mexico (45%-43%), and has caught up to me in South Carolina and Texas, where we are both at 45% in each state. I maintain a strong lead in Pennsylvania (55%-37%), and lead in New Hampshire (49%-41%), Arizona (47%-40%), North Carolina (47%-43%), Georgia (47%-42%), Minnesota (45%-44%), Michigan (48%-44), Nevada (45%-43%), and Wisconsin (45%-44%).


October 15, 2040: Second debate


Moderator: One of the biggest differences between you in this campaign has been on the issue of trade. Senator Cohen, you have defended your record in support of free trade and investments in supply chains in cooperation and coordination with Mexico and Canada as important to the U.S. economy. Mr. President, you’ve defended your tariffs as necessary to protect American workers and domestic industries. Why is your approach the right approach for America, and how do you intend to work with our trading partners?

Cohen: Four years ago, the President criticized efforts we implemented during the Whitmer administration to increase trade with South America. I voted in favor of those policies because they were and are good for American manufacturing and promoted economic development. This President opposed those policies and has spent the past four years working to undo them under the guise of renegotiating a better deal for our workers. Instead, his policies have cost American consumers billions of dollars and the manufacturing sector is in recession. My trade policies will remove barriers to trade so long as our trading partners respect human rights, worker’s rights, fair wages, intellectual property, and environmental standards. I’ll be able to work with our allies because I’ll lead by example and base my decisions off what’s right, not politics.

Vance: It’s amazing to me how Senator Cohen consistently blames me for things that occurred before I took office. I had to renegotiate the trade policies you supported because they were costing us jobs. In Ohio, we lost 2,000 agriulctural jobs the year before I took office. In Iowa, they lost over 3,000. And in your home state of Pennsylvania, agricultural employment declined by 500. What I’ve done is renegotiate trade deals. With south America, we’ve agreed to intellectual property protections and balance on agricultural exchanges. We are still negotiating, but we’ve agreed to ease tariffs as we continue to negotiate. In the Asia Pacific, we are still working but have made progress, particularly on cybersecurity and currency manipulation. I have proven that I can lead on trade because our trading partners know that I’m a man of my word.

Cohen: If you were truly a man of your word, the manufacturing sector wouldn’t be in recession right now. If you were truly a man of your word, unemployment wouldn’t have doubled and inflation wouldn’t be at nearly 7% right now based on your promises four years ago. As far as these numbers in agriculture, I’ve heard you make that point on the campaign trail. Those were not seasonally adjusted numbers. Unemployment in the agricultural sector fell by 65% during the eight years of President Whitmer. Since you’ve been President, over 70,000 jobs have been lost in agriculture. Farm profits are the lowest in modern history right now. For someone who claims to be in touch with where they came from, you sure aren’t speaking to the realities for folks across the midwest and other places who are struggling with your inflation.

Moderator: Mr. President, on the campaign trail you have touted your administration’s foreign policy, arguing that you’ve kept your word to maintain peace. However, your administration has kept military bases open overseas, and defense spending has increased by over 30% since you became President. Why should the U.S. spend more on the military if you have kept peace?

Vance: I think our investments in our military is a major reason why we have been able to maintain peace. I adhere to Teddy Roosevelt’s concept of speaking softly and carrying a big stick. We’ve maintained our military and intelligence superiority, but we haven’t engaged in foreign interventions. Senator Cohen and I disagree on a lot, but we do agree there are challenges here at home that need to be addressed. Policing the world won’t allow us to do so. Additionally, I think we need to build a more secure America by continuing to increase border patrol agents and ensure law enforcement has the resources necessary to maintain law and order in every community. Senator Cohen and I disagree strongly in that he hasn't prioritized border security and at times, he's voted to outsource American foreign policy decisions to international organizations.

Cohen: I supported President Vance's defense budgets, as well as those under President Whitmer because they are consistent with my view that defense spending should be in line with inflation. I led a bipartisan effort in the United States Senate to deliver funding and resources requested by our intelligence agencies. I have consistently voted to increase troop pay and helped write legislation that has expanded access to healthcare for our veterans. As President, I will continue to support a strong military and I'll go to Congress and get a historic expansion of the G.I. bill. Now, the President and I do differ in that while we both oppose policing the world, I believe we must be more active in working with our allies to solve global problems, whether it be human rights, climate change, poverty, or crime.

Moderator: Why do you believe you are better qualified to be President of the United States and Commander-in-Chief than your opponent?

Vance: I have served in uniform, worked in the private sector, was elected to the United States Senate, and I've been a President who has defied the odds in getting things done despite a corporate media and political insiders who have opposed me from day one. I understand what people go through, I know what service is all about, and I've made tough decisions. Senator Cohen is a nice person, but he has never had to worry about where his next meal would come from, he's never had to worry about applying for a job, and he has no executive experience. Getting bills through Congress is fine, but what has Senator Cohen done to take on the establishment and bring about transformative change? I have delivered change, whether it's tax cuts, less regulation, improving highly flawed trade deals Senator Cohen supported, and ensuring a more peaceful world. If I'm re-elected, I'll continue to take on the political establishment and win for all Americans while ensuring we are a strong and peaceful nation.

Cohen: I respect the President's service in uniform and his ability to overcome challenges, but I don't respect his experience over the past four years because he has failed to provide Americans with competent leadership. I have nearly two decades of experience in the private sector, working with workers and Main Street businesses to minimize their risk so they could focus on delivering for their customers and providing for their families. I know how jobs are created and how entrepreneurs grapple with tough decisions. I then brought my private sector experience to government. In the United States Senate, I've delivered tax cuts for working families and small businesses, protected a woman's right to choose, authored landmark environmental legislation, and promoted economic development and job creation on a bipartisan basis. I've also met with our troops, veterans, military leadership, and allies before making decisions on foreign affairs. I am ready to lead America and restore freedom and equality.

[BushKerry04]

I like Governor Whitmer a lot but I am not sure she could win Texas in the general election.

Appreciate the feedback.

[BushKerry04]

October 17, 2040: Shifting Strategy

I received a 6 a.m. phone call from Ying Lee. Ying spoke with our campaign chair in Florida and the Florida Democratic Party Chair, and both suggested the Florida Democratic Party saw a path for us to carry the state. By 7:30, I was at breakfast with Rachel, Ying, and Nancy Rubenstein discussing what Ying felt was a compelling case to shift resources in Florida. Essentially, it boils down to a surge in support for Democrats in three areas of the state. First, Democratic candidates in Miami-Dade County are better funded and have more grassroots volunteers than they’ve had in years. A moderate Democratic congressional candidate in the area is self-funding, which has made what was a toss-up race one where the Democratic candidate now leads, 47%-42%. My numbers in this particular district are 47%-44%. However, the state Democratic Party began sending mailers in Spanish to Cuban American households. They used a quote of mine from July 2031 when the U.S. Senate was debating trade policy with Cuba. I stated that, “We need to ensure that if we are further expand trade with Cuba, there are safeguards in place to ensure the regime respects human rights and workers. America can not endorse oppression, we must always defend freedom and equality for all.” On October 1st, I was ahead in Miami-Dade County, 49%-39%. Now, I’m ahead 52%-37%. My standing has also improved in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, the second fastest growing area of the state. Four years ago, the President won the area by a 50%-49% margin. I’m ahead, 47%-43% there at present. And finally, my numbers in Collier County are far better than what had been expected. Four years ago, President Vance carried the county, 57%-42%. Eight years ago, Governor Gianforte carried it, 53%-46%. President Vance leads me by a slim 49%-47% margin.

After a long discussion, we made a decision. We will pull out of Ohio, Indiana, and South Carolina in favor of Florida. We also decided to scale back our operation in Texas; we’d continue to do mailers in swing congressional districts there, but we’d run substantially fewer television ads. Our tracking survey had shown a tightening of the race in Florida, but we weren’t on the ground there like our friends in the Florida Democratic Party.

I kept my commitments in Indiana on the 17th of October, but we cancelled two Ohio events the following day. Instead, I’d fly to Florida and attend a campaign event in Jacksonville for the local Democratic Party. From there, I’d resume my scheduled as planned, including the final presidential debate in Minneapolis. I would return to Florida on October 27th, where I’d hold rallies in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, travel to Naples for a town hall meeting, and then hold a rally at night in St. Petersburg. On the 28th, I’d return to Jacksonville for a rally with former President Barack Obama, the last Democrat to carry Florida. Obama would hold several rallies on my behalf in Florida between now and election day. My campaign would spend $17 million in Florida. We presently have $50 million cash on hand, so this is a big gamble. Additionally, the Democratic National Committee will join us in conceding South Carolina, and redirect $1 million to the state. Presumably, Super PACs supporting my campaign will also shift resources. Of the $17 million more we are going to allocate, half of it will go into television ads in three media markets: Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fort Meyers-Naples, and Jacksonville.   

[BushKerry04]

October 19, 2040: Home Stretch
My team, in consultation with surrogates and Democratic Party campaign officials, put forth a finalized schedule for the final two weeks of the campaign. Additionally, the Republicans also released their campaign plans. Below are where the campaigns will be:

October 20
Peter Cohen will campaign in Florida
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in New Mexico
JD Vance will campaign in South Carolina
Ted Cruz will campaign in Texas

October 21
Peter Cohen will campaign in Florida
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Texas
JD Vance will campaign in South Carolina
Ted Cruz will campaign in Texas

October 22
Peter Cohen will campaign in Georgia
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Florida
JD Vance will campaign in Nevada
Ted Cruz will campaign in Indiana

October 23
Peter Cohen will campaign in North Carolina
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in New Hampshire
JD Vance will campaign in Nevada
Ted Cruz will campaign in Minnesota

October 24
Peter Cohen will campaign in New Mexico
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Michigan
JD Vance will campaign in Texas
Ted Cruz will campaign in Minnesota

October 25
Peter Cohen & JD Vance will participate in the third presidential debate in Santa Fe, New Mexico
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Michigan
Ted Cruz will campaign in Florida

October 26
Peter Cohen will campaign in Florida
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Wisconsin
JD Vance will campaign in Florida
ted Cruz will campaign in Texas

October 27
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Florida, along with Presidents Obama & Whitmer
JD Vance will campaign in Wisconsin
ted Cruz will campaign in Texas

October 28
Peter Cohen will campaign in Minnesota
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in South Carolina
JD Vance will campaign in Michigan
Ted Cruz will campaign in New Mexico

October 29
Peter Cohen will campaign in Minnesota
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Ohio
JD Vance will campaign in Michigan
Ted Cruz will campaign in South Carolina

October 30
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Wisconsin, along with Presidents Obama & Whitmer
JD Vance and Ted Cruz will campaign in Minnesota

October 31
Peter Cohen will campaign in Florida
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Tennessee
JD Vance will campaign in Ohio
Ted Cruz will campaign in Kentucky

November 1
Peter Cohen will campaign in Florida
Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Minnesota
JD Vance will campaign in Ohio
Ted Cruz will campaign in Oregon

November 2
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Wisconsin
JD Vance will campaign in Minnesota
Ted Cruz will campaign in South Carolina

November 3
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Wisconsin
JD Vance and Ted Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin

November 4
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign in Michigan
JD Vance and Ted Cruz will campaign in Minnesota with Ben Shapiro

November 5
Peter Cohen and Tammy Duckworth will campaign and Michigan and hold an election eve rally in Lansing, joined by Presidents Obama & Whitmer, LeBron James, and Eva Longoria
JD Vance and Ted Cruz will campaign in Ohio, and hold an election eve rally in Akron

[BushKerry04]

October 20, 2040: tracking poll
Nancy Rubenstein, Ying, and I did a conference call about our daily tracking poll in between stops in Florida. After the first debate, my national lead extended from 47%-43% to 49%-41%. After the second debate, things tightened a bit to 47%-42%. However, in the past 48 hours, Nancy saw a sizable shift in our direction. Our new numbers reflect this. On October 18, I was at 48% and the President was at 43%, with 7% undecided and 2% backing a third-party candidate. However, undecideds are clearly breaking in our direction, I now lead by a 52%-42% margin, with 4% undecided and 2% backing third-party candidates. In our internals, this was the largest lead I've enjoyed throughout the entire campaign. Driving this lead was a huge gender gap, I'm ahead 54%-35% with women. Also, the progressive base is moving in our direction in a big way. At the state level, we are also in good shape. I am now in the lead in New Mexico (49%-44%), Nevada (48%-44%), Wisconsin (48%-40%%), Michigan (50%-40%), Minnesota (49%-41%), and well ahead in North Carolina (50%-40%), Georgia (49%-39%), Arizona (50%-38%), and Pennsylvania (57%-37%). Florida, Ohio, and Texas are too close to call; I lead in Florida (45%-44%) and Ohio (47%-45%) while the President leads in Texas (47%-44%).  

October 21, 2040: Closing arguments
Following the third and final presidential debate, the President and I made our closing pitch to voters:


"My fellow Americans, I stand before you here today ready to lead America and usher in a new era of freedom and equality for every citizen of this exceptional country. I am guided by the principles that my parents, community, faith, and instinct have taught me. Treat everyone with respect, listen before speaking, give hatred no safe harbor, condemn injustice, strive towards greatness, serve others, and tell the truth no matter what. These are the values that define who I am and what kind of President I'd be. Throughout my career in the private sector and in elected office, I've sought to solve problems and deliver solutions to the challenges people face. I've listened to everyone, brought people together, and delivered results. Under this President, surpluses have turned into deficits, a historic economic expansion has turned into recession, and we are experiencing the highest inflation in a generation. We have become less free, less prosperous, and more divided over the past four years. The President's answer is to double-down on failure, my answer has been to go everywhere, listen to everyone, and work with multiple stakeholders to craft a policy agenda that will allow us to create a more inclusive, equitable, sustainable, and prosperous society. Our agenda will get inflation under control by reducing the deficit and increasing economic productivity, create jobs with incentives and tax cuts for Main Street, save working people money by delivering real tax relief and moving us towards universal healthcare, and protect the rights of all of our people by strengthening equal pay law, voting rights, civil rights, and addressing environmental injustice. On Tuesday, November 6th, I humbly ask for your vote so that together, we can restore prosperity and progress for all of our people" - Peter Cohen

"As a young man from a poor family, I didn't have the luxury of expecting things to come my way. I volunteered to serve our country, worked hard to get a good education, and pursued a career in business. When I saw the damage that was being done by years of elites in Washington D.C. and on Wall Street ignoring the concerns and struggles of people like those from my hometown, I decided to run for office and take on the political establishment that spent decades outsourcing jobs and outsourcing American foreign policy decisions. I never became the darling of the elites because I stayed true to my commitments to the people of this country. Four years ago, when the polls and pundits said we couldn't win, we did. I acknowledge that things aren't perfect in America today, but I do think we should take stock of our accomplishments. We are getting concessions on trade, taxes are lower today than they were four years ago, we have fewer burdensome regulations, and we are a nation that is both stronger and more peaceful than we were in 2036. Senator Cohen has spent the past four years criticizing our work. During this campaign, he's offered a lot of proposals. Yet, he has failed to introduce a single one of them on the floor of the United States Senate during my tenure in office. If I were as bad as he claims, why not? Wouldn't he want to solve the problems he accuses me of creating? In reality, Senator Cohen is part of the political establishment that is out of touch with the concerns of everyday people in the heartland of America. That's why he's voted against tax cuts and in favor of trade agreements that haven't benefited workers. I'm asking for your vote because I'll continue to be the strong leader working Americans can count on" - JD Vance

[BushKerry04]

October 23, 2040: The October Surprise

News broke at 4 a.m. on October 24th that federal revenue projections were substantially off and that a November 31st government funding deadline would now be moved up to election day, according to the U.S. Department of Treasury, Office of Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office. Unless Congress and the President acted, there would be a government shutdown. When financial markets opened at 9:30, it wasn’t a pretty picture. The S&P 500, already down 2% on the year, opened down 12%. Yields spiked, and by noon widespread economic panic ensued.

The Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting at 2 p.m., and after a briefing with members of the Department of Treasury, President Vance called Speaker Jeffries and other leaders in both houses of Congress to meet with him to negotiate funding for the government. At 3 p.m., the President called me and invited me to attend the meeting. I did. I left the campaign trail as Rachel continued to campaign.

From 5 p.m. until 3 a.m., the President, his Chief of Staff, the Secretary of Treasury, Office of Management and Budget Director, Speaker Jeffries, House Budget Chair Brendan Boyle (D-PA), House Budget Committee Ranking Member Byron Donalds (R-FL), Senate Budget Chair Ben Ray Lujan (R-NM), Senate Budget Ranking Member Katie Britt (R-AL), and I negotiated a budget deal.

There was a great deal of back and forth, phone calls to staff and key members of our respective caucuses, and hashing out details. We Democrats wanted to increase taxes on the wealthy while the President and Republicans wanted to reduce the EPA budget by 5% and freeze all federal spending for six weeks. To make a long story short, we came to an agreement.

The President agreed to a small tax increase on corporations; the corporate minim tax would go from 15% to 17%. This would allow the treasury to issue bonds to make up for the revenue shortfall and be paid back in full starting in December. Since this was part of my campaign platform (though my proposal was 20%, not 17%), it would be seen as a victory for me. To neutralize the politics and get a funding bill through, I agreed to a freeze in federal spending for six weeks in the discretionary part of the federal budget. Additionally, I agreed to support an increase in tariffs and let the President make the announcement.

The President addressed the nation at noon the next day from the Oval Office after the U.S. Senate and House began debating this funding package. At 4 p.m., the House passed the package by a vote of 290-145. 90 House Republicans and 55 House Democrats voted no. In the U.S. Senate, the vote was 80-20 with 15 Democrats and 5 Republicans voting no. At 7:30 p.m., I spoke to reporters from the Senate briefing room:


“Good evening. Tonight, the United States Senate followed the House of Representatives in passing a government funding package that will enable the government to remain open. To keep the government open, Democratic leadership in both houses, Republicans, the President, and I met for ten hours and worked on this finished product.

This bill is not perfect. But it achieves a few important objectives. First and foremost, it allows for the government to continue operating at present levels through November 31st. Secondly, it ensures that our military, entitlement programs, and veteran’s benefits continue to receive full funding. Third, it ensures the stability of our economy and financial markets. And fourth, it gives us time to work towards a longer-term government funding program.

In all candor, this legislation required both parties to make concessions. The President and Republicans graciously accepted a modest increase in the corporate minimum tax, which will begin to be paid in December. My Democratic colleagues and I agreed to freeze the level of government spending for the next six weeks and to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The President and I agreed that whoever wins the election, this agreement is only valid until inauguration day.

Let me conclude by stating that I am committed to ensuring the stability of the American economy and the financial security of all of our citizens. I will work with anyone to advance the interests of the people of this country. Thank you”

This was an October surprise, but I didn’t feel any sense of joy given the severity of the fiscal situation and the uncertainty it created in the economy. However, I also knew this pretty much sealed the deal with the election.

[wnwnwn]

It seems that dems will take the White House.
Will the timeline end or continue?

[BushKerry04]

It seems that dems will take the White House.
Will the timeline end or continue?

Continue. Not sure how long, at least 2048.

[ctherainbow]

As a NEPA resident, I have to applaud the inclusion of Paige Cognetti as a speaker at the convention; maybe I missed it, but what office is she holding in this timeline?  I assume she’s moved up from the mayorship of Scranton; does she hold Cartwright’s district now?

Fun timeline!  Not gonna lie, when I first saw it was a self timeline, I was worried it would be self-aggrandizing, but I really enjoyed reading through!

[BushKerry04]

As a NEPA resident, I have to applaud the inclusion of Paige Cognetti as a speaker at the convention; maybe I missed it, but what office is she holding in this timeline?  I assume she’s moved up from the mayorship of Scranton; does she hold Cartwright’s district now?

Fun timeline!  Not gonna lie, when I first saw it was a self timeline, I was worried it would be self-aggrandizing, but I really enjoyed reading through!

Thank you! I appreciate the feedback.

I didn't specify Cognetti's title here. However, a quick spoiler alert. It's Congresswoman due to redistricting in 2030. Stay tuned.

While I have made-up characters, particularly on my campaign team, I'm also trying to make this as if I were actually a politician running for President. So many of these roles people have are future predictions. I think if Cartwright retires, loses re-election (unlikely in my opinion), or gets an ambassadorship and resigns his seat, Cognetti has an excellent chance of being the Democratic nominee for Congress.

[ctherainbow]

As a NEPA resident, I have to applaud the inclusion of Paige Cognetti as a speaker at the convention; maybe I missed it, but what office is she holding in this timeline?  I assume she’s moved up from the mayorship of Scranton; does she hold Cartwright’s district now?

Fun timeline!  Not gonna lie, when I first saw it was a self timeline, I was worried it would be self-aggrandizing, but I really enjoyed reading through!

Thank you! I appreciate the feedback.

I didn't specify Cognetti's title here. However, a quick spoiler alert. It's Congresswoman due to redistricting in 2030. Stay tuned.

While I have made-up characters, particularly on my campaign team, I'm also trying to make this as if I were actually a politician running for President. So many of these roles people have are future predictions. I think if Cartwright retires, loses re-election (unlikely in my opinion), or gets an ambassadorship and resigns his seat, Cognetti has an excellent chance of being the Democratic nominee for Congress.

It was really cool to see a (currently) local pol featured by a poster from another state (I’m assuming, unless you just really like NC as a forum av).

And I concur with you, and said as much to her the last time I met her after she gave the opening address at last year’s NEPA Trans Health Conference.  As she was walking down the aisle to leave, I pulled her aside real quick and told her to let me know when she ran for Congress, because I’d happily do data work for her campaign.  She gave me the boilerplate “oh thanks, I’m not really sure about the future, I’m focused on serving the city right now” answer, and when she was done, I said “sure, but let me know when you run for Congress”, and she smirked and winked, so either she’s thinking about it, or she just really wanted to disengage from the convo and go have lunch.   😆

[Steve from Lambeth]

October 23, 2040: The October Surprise

News broke at 4 a.m. on October 24th that federal revenue projections were substantially off and that a November 31st government funding deadline would now be moved up to election day...

Wait, so you're telling me that the budget now has to be passed by a real date as opposed to an imaginary date?

[BushKerry04]

As a NEPA resident, I have to applaud the inclusion of Paige Cognetti as a speaker at the convention; maybe I missed it, but what office is she holding in this timeline?  I assume she’s moved up from the mayorship of Scranton; does she hold Cartwright’s district now?

Fun timeline!  Not gonna lie, when I first saw it was a self timeline, I was worried it would be self-aggrandizing, but I really enjoyed reading through!

Thank you! I appreciate the feedback.

I didn't specify Cognetti's title here. However, a quick spoiler alert. It's Congresswoman due to redistricting in 2030. Stay tuned.

While I have made-up characters, particularly on my campaign team, I'm also trying to make this as if I were actually a politician running for President. So many of these roles people have are future predictions. I think if Cartwright retires, loses re-election (unlikely in my opinion), or gets an ambassadorship and resigns his seat, Cognetti has an excellent chance of being the Democratic nominee for Congress.

It was really cool to see a (currently) local pol featured by a poster from another state (I’m assuming, unless you just really like NC as a forum av).

And I concur with you, and said as much to her the last time I met her after she gave the opening address at last year’s NEPA Trans Health Conference.  As she was walking down the aisle to leave, I pulled her aside real quick and told her to let me know when she ran for Congress, because I’d happily do data work for her campaign.  She gave me the boilerplate “oh thanks, I’m not really sure about the future, I’m focused on serving the city right now” answer, and when she was done, I said “sure, but let me know when you run for Congress”, and she smirked and winked, so either she’s thinking about it, or she just really wanted to disengage from the convo and go have lunch.   😆

Very cool!

[BushKerry04]

October 27, 2040: Latest Polling

Nationally
53% (+1)
43% (+1)

New Mexico
Cohen 50% (+1)
Vance 44% (0)

Nevada
Cohen 51% (+3)
Vance 41% (-3)

Wisconsin
Cohen 50% (+2)
Vance 38% (-2)

Michigan
Cohen 53% (+3)
Vance 38% (-2)

Minnesota
Cohen 50% (+1)
Vance 40% (-1)

North Carolina
Cohen 52% (+2)
Vance 40% (0)

Georgia
Cohen 50% (+1)
Vance 38% (-1)

Arizona
Cohen 54% (+4)
Vance 40% (+2)

Pennsylvania
Cohen 60% (+3)
Vance 35% (-2)

Florida
Cohen 49% (+4)
Vance 45% (0)

Ohio
Vance 47% (+2)
Cohen 44% (-3)

Texas
Vance 47% (0)
Cohen 43% (-1)

Iowa
Vance 49% (+1)
Cohen 40% (0)

New Hampshire
Cohen 48% (+1)
Vance 41% (-2)

Alaska
Vance 49% (+2)
Cohen 45% (0)

South Carolina
Vance 50% (+3)
Cohen 41% (-2)

Tennessee
Vance 48% (+1)
Cohen 43% (-1%)

Louisiana
Vance 53% (+3)
Cohen 38% (-2)

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Cohen 52% (+4)
Vance 40% (-5)

Vance Approval
Approve: 40% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+7)

% Favorable
Cohen 54% (0)
Vance 42% (-5)
Duckworth 62% (+2)
Cruz 38% (+1)

% Unfavorable
Cohen 37% (+4)
Duckworth 12% (-3)
Vance 49% (+5)
Cruz 52% (0)

November 5, 2040: Election Eve

At 5 p.m. on election eve, my campaign held a rally which was the most fun event I had throughout the course of the campaign. The event started with a Jazz band, and then Comedian Amy Schumer did stand up comedy. NBA Great LeBron James spoke about basketball before getting into politics, and then Actress Eva Longoria spoke. Several dignitaries spoke, including Barack Obama and Gretchen Whitmer. Rachel introduced me, and I gave a list-minute pitch to voters:


“Thank you, Michigan. Thank you once again for your hospitality, consideration, and generosity. Let’s hear it for the Detroit Jazz Orchestra, Amy Schumer, LeBron James, and Eva Longoria. I know you really came here to listen to them. I want to thank my campaign team here in Michigan and across the country, led by Ying Lee and Nicole Giordanio, for your energy and hard work.

To all of the elected officials here and who spoke, I want to thank you for your leadership and support in this campaign.

To my parents, thank you for everything you have done for me throughout my life, and for the values you’ve instilled in me. I love you both so very much. To my in-laws, thank you for your support and the free room and board during this campaign here in Michigan. And to the Michigan girl I fell in love with 22 years ago, I love you and know you will make a fantastic first lady. Rachel is the best wife a man could ask for, and she truly is my better half.

 Tomorrow at 6 a.m. across America, people will begin in-person voting. Already, a record number of our fellow citizens have voted early or by mail. So I encourage you to vote, and I hope you’ll vote Democrat.

When you vote, if you haven’t done so already, I encourage you to consider the records and visions of both of us.

When I asked the people of Pennsylvania to send me to the United States Senate, I said I’d stand up for job creation, tax relief for working people, protecting a woman’s right to choose, and ensuring we lead the world in confronting climate change.

As a result of the hard work of the American people, legislation I’m proud to have been a part of advancing or authoring in the United States Senate, and the leadership of President Whitmer and her administration, we accomplished these objectives.

In the eight years before the current President took office, 15 million jobs were created, median income rose by over $4,000, the gender and racial pay gaps were reduced by 50%, carbon emissions fell, education attainment reached a record high, and more Americans obtained health insurance coverage than ever before. At the same time, we were respected in the world, civil rights were strengthened here at home, and the budget was balanced for the first time in over 30 years. All of this is a testament to the hard work and determination of the American people and the strong, transformative leadership of President Gretchen Whitmer.

Four years ago, President Vance said that his economic agenda would lead to even stronger job creation, a reduction in the trade deficit, and a sizable reduction in the national debt. He said if we just stop worrying about the climate so much, keep taxes low on the very wealthy, and renegotiate trade deals, we’ll see a higher standard of living.

The President has gutted environmental regulations, opposed asking the wealthy to pay just a little more in taxes, and he increased taxes on you in the form of tariffs in service to his philosophy. What are the results? The highest unemployment in two decades, the highest inflation in over 18 years, real wages are flat, we have a $385 billion budget deficit, 1.5 million Americans have lost their health insurance, and the trade deficit has grown by $30 billion. The President has made clear he will continue these policies if he’s re-elected. I believe we must move on from the deficits, deceit, and economic decline of the past four years.

During the course of this campaign, I’ve promised you that if elected, I will help usher in a new era of freedom and equality in America. I’ve pledged to work tirelessly to restore growth to our economy, promote opportunity for all, stand up for social justice, and ensure we lead the world again.

After listening to countless citizens from all walks of life and consulting with multiple stakeholders, I’ve put forward an agenda for America that will not only restore progress and prosperity, but also ensure we set ourselves up for greatness in the 2040s and beyond.


On day one, I will send to Congress my economic plan, which will be paid for by asking multinational corporations and the wealthiest amongst us to pay just a little more in taxes. This plan will expand SBA loans to those historically underrepresented in our economy, create new jobs incentives, and expand green energy and manufacturing jobs credits. It’ll cut taxes for 98% of Americans and small businesses on Main Streets across the country. And it will strengthen the safety net by making health insurance free for working people and more affordable for the middle-class. This proposal will invest in education and increase the solvency of social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. We can achieve all of this while eliminating the budget deficit in two years, balancing the budget in four, and reducing debt by $1 trillion over the next decade.

Here in Michigan, as well as across the Midwest and in home home state of Pennsylvania, so many communities that were vibrant during the 20th century fell on hard times. During the Whitmer administration, we began to invest in these communities. I want to build on that progress with the Main Street Revitalization Fund I’ve proposed. Under this proposal, a portion of corporate tax revenues will be sent to struggling communities so they can attract new businesses and jobs, improve local infrastructure, and support local services including parks, education, and law enforcement.

I have also committed to getting our country back to carbon neutrality by the year 2050 and lowering utility costs for working people by taxing big polluters. In addition to expanding existing incentives as I’ve mentioned, we must invest in public transportation, getting our electricity grid to 100% clean energy, and doubling the adaptation of carbon capture technology in industry.

I believe from the bottom of my heart that all people are created equally. To this end, our society has made social progress over the past 80 years. Yet, injustice and inequality still exist. Our opponents want to repeal the Reproductive Freedom Act, I won’t let them. They want to make it harder for folks to vote, I’ll sign bold, new voting rights legislation into law. And they oppose pay transparency legislation, I intend to sign that into law during my first 100 days in office.

You see, I believe in the freedom of every American, regardless of their background, to have the ability to earn a decent living, afford the necessities we all rely on, live in a safe neighborhood, breathe clean air, drink clean water, and make decisions about their own lives so long as they don’t adversely impact others. And I believe in equality of opportunity in employment, housing, justice, the environment, healthcare, and every aspect of our society.

The agenda I’ve proposed speaks to these goals. But make no mistake about it, judgement and values matter just as much as policy.

In every place I've been, in every job I've held, and in every campaign I've run, I’ve showed up, listened to everyone, and brought people together to deliver results. Listening. Learning. Doing. That is the kind of President I will be. I am not perfect, nor do I have all of the answers. But what I do offer you is proven leadership and fresh ideas.

But please know, this campaign isn't about me. It is about you, it's about our country. I am asking for your vote because I want to give voice to the voiceless and get to work solving problems that impact you every day.

Thank you, God bless you, and may God continue to bless the United States of America."

[Steve from Lambeth]

November 5, 2040: Election Eve

At 5 p.m. on election eve, my campaign held a rally which was the most fun event I had throughout the course of the campaign. The event started with a Jazz band, and then Comedian Amy Schumer did stand up comedy. NBA Great LeBron James spoke about basketball before getting into politics, and then Actress Eva Longoria spoke. Several dignitaries spoke, including Barack Obama and Gretchen Whitmer.

By 2040, Obama will be 79; Whitmer will be 69; Longoria will be 64; Schumer will be 58; James will be 55. Maybe Cohen could try appealing to what cable news gurus call "the key 18-50 demo" in his re-election campaign.

[Wiswylfen]

I respect a man who's not afraid to write self-insert fanfic.

[wnwnwn]

I respect a man who's not afraid to write self-insert fanfic.

My timeline has a constant sort of joke that references a popular user and a sort of insert of him is going to have relevance after being elected.

[BushKerry04]

November 6, 2040: I win
The networks projected me as President-elect at 11:02 p.m. as they called California, Nevada, and New Mexico for us. Ohio and Texas were still too close to call, and votes from Alaska and U.S. territories were still outstanding. But we were over 270 electoral votes. President Vance called me to concede the election at 12:45 a.m. We spoke for about ten minutes, and agreed to meet to discuss the presidential transition and how to unify the country. He gave a very gracious concession speech from his campaign headquarters in Cinnicinnati, Ohio. His speech lasted about 15 minutes, from 1:30 a.m. until 1:45 a.m. At 2:25 a.m., Vice President-elect Duckworth and her family, my parents, Rachel, and I walked out onstage at the Mariott West Chester where the Vice President-elect would speak, followed by me. We were joined on stage by my national campaign co-chairs, Senator Booker and Congresswoman Stevens, as well as Senator Fetterman, the Mayor of West Chester, Nicole, Ying, and a few personal friends of mine. At exactly 2:50 a.m., I accepted victory:

“Thank you all so very much for that warm Pennsylvania welcome.

My fellow Pennsylvanians, my fellow Americans. I am honored and humbled by the enthusiasm in this room and across the country tonight. Across America today and over the past few weeks, people from all walks of life have lined up to participate in the Democratic process. Voter turnout in this election was amongst the highest in American history. The American people have spoken, and their voices have been heard loudly and clearly.

A short while ago, President Vance called to congratulate us on our victory in this election. The President was extraordinarily gracious. I thanked him for his service to our nation in uniform and as President, and I wished him and his family the very best. We agreed to meet to discuss the presidential transition and how we can unite the country.

In addition to the Presidency, Democrats will now have larger majorities in the House of Representatives and United States Senate.

I have so many people to thank, beginning with the American people for this extraordinary honor and privilege. I want to thank you for your consideration and votes. I will work tirelessly on your behalf, and my mission will be to fulfill the campaign promises I’ve made to you. Over the past 18 months, I’ve traveled to every corner of this nation. Americans are decent, honest, hard-working, and determined to restore prosperity and progress for all.

To Democratic primary voters, you were with us from the beginning. Thank you for your encouragement and for helping us get to this historic moment.

To the volunteers who stuffed envelopes, made calls, put up lawn signs, solicited donations, knocked on doors, and so much more. I thank you for your energy, enthusiasm, and hard work. You were the backbone of this campaign. I want to thank those who contributed to our effort, your investment enabled us to compete, win, and now we’ll be able to deliver results thanks to your investment.

I also want to thank our campaign team, led by Ying Li, our campaign manager, our deputy campaign manager Amir Gaines, and of course my Chief of Staff and friend Nicole Giordanio. Every single member of our team, from the Campaign Manager to our national team, state teams, local teams, and interns have used their extraordinary talent, intellect, professionalism, and skill to help deliver this win. Thank you, I will forever be in your debt.

Let me take this opportunity to thank the people of my hometown of West Chester, as well as folks across Chester County and Pennsylvania. It is because of your guidance and example that I am who I am today. You have given me the privilege and responsibility to serve the public for the past two decades. I will always be proud to call this beautiful place my home, thank you.

To our Vice President-elect, I want to thank you for your friendship, advice, and for always answering the call to serve our country. I thank you and your family for the incredible partnership throughout the course of this campaign.

I love you so very much, Mom and Dad. You’ve instilled in me values that have served me well. You’ve given me uncondititional love and support. Thank you for all you’ve done to help me get to this moment.

And let me say to my in-laws, neighbors, friends, and family who are here with us tonight and those watching at home. Each and every one of you has played an important role in my life, and I thank you for your help in this campaign.  

Twenty-two years ago, just up the road from where we are right now, I met a smart, principled, successful, and beautiful woman. She’s been at my side ever since and truly is my better half. Rachel, I love you with all of my heart and soul. You are going to make an incredible First Lady.

As I’ve said throughout this campaign, I believe in the freedom of every American to have the ability to earn a decent living, afford the necessities we all rely on, live in a safe neighborhood, breathe clean air, drink clean water, and make decisions about their own lives so long as they don’t adversely impact others. And I believe in equality of opportunity in employment, housing, justice, the environment, healthcare, and every aspect of our society.

I ran for public office to advance these principles, and I’m humbled that Americans of all walks of life responded to our campaign with a mandate. We won in cities, suburbs, and small towns across the nation. We won amongst voters young and young at heart, women and men, our LGBT brothers and sisters, and voters of different races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, religions, and even political ideologies. In fact, in the sixty-eight years of exit polling, no campaign won more support from independent voters than ours.

Let me reiterate to people across the country who voted for me, I am extraordinarily grateful for the trust you have placed in me. I will work each day to prove worthy of such trust. To those who voted for the President or another candidate, I’ve heard your voices and know I have work to do to earn your confidence.

Tonight, history has been made. I stand before you on the shoulders of generations of Jewish Americans who escaped oppression and atrocity to head to our shores in search of freedom and a better life. You have given me the privilege of serving as the first American President who happens to be Jewish. Once again, America has shown the world that freedom of religion is an essential part of our society.

Vice President-elect Duckworth exemplifies the contributions immigrants and their children have always made to this country. Her parents immigrated here, worked hard, and made sure their children had every opportunity to be successful. The Vice President-elect has dedicated her career to service, and she will continue to do so as the first American Vice President of Asian descent.

While we celebrate our victory, we must also remind ourselves what we are celebrating. This is not an easy time for Americans. We find ourselves in the midst of an economic recession with stubbornly high inflation. The budget deficit is growing, people's take home pay is shrinking, families are worried about their financial security, and we are at a crossroads in our efforts to confront climate change. We didn't win this election to dwell on our challenges, we won to address them.

Over the course of the next four years, I intend to do what I’ve done in every job I’ve had and in every campaign I’ve run, including this one. Go everywhere, listen to everyone, work with all stakeholders to come up with ideas to address people’s concerns, and deliver results.

I have no doubt in my mind that Americans are ready to rise to the challenge of overcoming the roadblocks of the present to usher in a new era of freedom and equality so we can enjoy a better tomorrow. So tonight, I call on all of us to put aside our differences and focus on what we can do and must do to advance the cause of a build a more equitable, inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous society for all.

Thank you, may God bless you, and may God bless America. Thank you so very much”

Results


Peter Cohen/Tammy Duckworth (D) 53%
JD Vance/Ted Cruz (R) 45%
Others 2%




State By State Results

Alabama: Vance +25
2036: Vance +24
2032: Gianforte +17
2028: Britt +30

Alaska: Vance +3
2036: Vance +7
2032: Gianforte +1
2028: Britt +7

Arizona: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +7
2032: Whitmer +12
2028: Whitmer +7

Arkansas: Vance +30
2036: Vance +29
2032: Gianforte +25
2028: Britt +30

California: Cohen +32
2036: Beshear +30
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +33

Colorado: Cohen +25
2036: Beshear +14
2032: Whitmer +23
2028: Whitmer +20

Connecticut: Cohen +25
2036: Beshear +21
2032: Whitmer +27
2028: Whitmer +23

Delaware: Cohen +23
2036: Beshear +19
2032: Whitmer +25
2028: Whitmer +21

Florida: Cohen +0.2
2036: Vance +7
2032: Gianforte +1
2028: Britt +5

Georgia: Cohen +14
2036: Beshear +10
2032: Whitmer +15
2028: Whitmer +12

Hawaii: Cohen +42
2036: Beshear +35
2032: Whitmer +45
2028: Whitmer +37

Idaho: Vance +30
2036: Vance +30
2032: Gianforte +20
2028: Britt +30

Illinois: Cohen +20
2036: Beshear +15
2032: Whitmer +25
2028: Whitmer +21

Indiana: Vance +3
2036: Vance +5
2032: Whitmer +7
2028: Britt +5

Iowa: Vance +15
2036: Vance +14
2032: Gianforte +1
2028: Britt +12

Kansas: Vance +21
2036: Vance +23
2032: Gianforte +8
2028: Britt +20

Kentucky: Vance +40
2036: Vance +5
2032: Gianforte +27
2028: Britt +40

Louisiana: Vance +14
2036: Vance +19
2032: Gianforte +8
2028: Britt +15

Maine: Cohen +21
2036: Beshear +17
2032: Whitmer +22
2028: Whitmer +18

Maryland: Cohen +35
2036: Beshear +32
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +35

Massachusetts: Cohen +32
2036: Beshear +27
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +30

Michigan: Cohen +15
2036: Beshear +2
2032: Whitmer +30
2028: Whitmer +20

Minnesota: Cohen +14
2036: Vance +0.1
2032: Whitmer +20
2028: Whitmer +15

Mississippi: Vance +25
2036: Vance +24
2032: Gianforte +20
2028: Britt +30

Missouri: Vance +10
2036: Vance +14
2032: Gianforte +5
2028: Britt +12

Montana: Vance +10
2036: Vance +15
2032: Gianforte +8
2028: Britt +14

Nebraska: Vance +19
2036: Vance +23
2032: Gianforte +15
2028: Britt +20

Nevada: Cohen +1
2036: Vance +1
2032: Whitmer +5
2028: Whitmer +1

New Hampshire: Cohen +21
2036: Beshear +10
2032: Whitmer +21
2028: Whitmer +15

New Jersey: Cohen +30
2036: Beshear +15
2032: Whitmer +25
2028: Whitmer +20

New Mexico: Cohen +2
2036: Vance +1
2032: Whitmer +10
2028: Whitmer +5

New York: Cohen +34
2036: Beshear +27
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +32

North Carolina: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +7
2032: Whitmer +12
2028: Whitmer +8

North Dakota: Vance +21
2036: Vance +23
2032: Gianforte +14
2028: Britt +20

Ohio: Vance +5
2036: Vance +10
2032: Whitmer +3
2028: Britt +10

Oklahoma: Vance +37
2036: Vance +37
2032: Gianforte +23
2028: Britt +38

Oregon: Cohen +14
2036: Beshear +14
2032: Whitmer +20
2028: Whitmer +15

Pennsylvania: Cohen +30
2036: Vance 0.5
2032: Whitmer +21
2028: Whitmer +14

Rhode Island: Cohen +35
2036: Beshear +30
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +32

South Carolina: Vance +5
2036: Vance +7
2032: Gianforte +1
2028: Britt +12

South Dakota: Vance +21
2036: Vance +25
2032: Gianforte +15
2028: Britt +22

Tennessee: Vance +10
2036: Vance +10
2032: Gianforte +2
2028: Britt +15

Texas: Vance +1
2036: Vance +5
2032: Whitmer +8
2028: Britt +1

Utah: Vance +20
2036: Vance +25
2032: Gianforte +30
2028: Britt +32

Vermont: Cohen +51
2036: Beshear +45
2032: Whitmer +52
2028: Whitmer +47

Virginia: Cohen +15
2036: Beshear +12
2032: Whitmer +18
2028: Whitmer +15

Washington: Cohen +25
2036: Beshear +24
2032: Whitmer +30
2028: Whitmer +25

Wisconsin: Cohen +14
2036: Vance +0.2
2032: Whitmer +19
2028: Whitmer +15


Exit Polls

Ages 18-34
2040: Cohen +32
2036: Beshear +30
2032: Whitmer +37
2028: Whitmer +35

Ages 35-44
2040: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +7
2032: Whitmer +10
2028: Whitmer +9

Ages 45-64
2040: Cohen +8
2036: Vance +1
2032: Whitmer +7
2028: Whitmer +1

Ages 65+
2040: Vance +7
2036: Vance +7
2032: Whitmer +2
2028: Britt +5


Party ID - Democratic
2040: Cohen +85
2036: Beshear +85
2032: Whitmer +90
2028: Whitmer +87

Party ID - Republican
2040: Vance +82
2036: Vance +85
2032: Gianforte +80
2028: Britt +83

Party ID - Independent
2040: Cohen +18
2036: Beshear +10
2032: Whitmer +17
2028: Whitmer +12

Ideology - Liberal
2040: Cohen +81
2036: Beshear +81
2032: Whitmer +88
2028: Whitmer +85

Ideology - Conservative
2040: Vance +81
2036: Vance +85
2032: Gianforte +74
2028: Britt +81

Ideology - Moderate
2040: Cohen +35
2036: Beshear +30
2032: Whitmer +37
2028: Whitmer +34

Race - White
2040: Vance +10
2036: Vance +14
2032: Gianforte +7
2028: Britt +12

Race - Black
2040: Cohen +81
2036: Beshear +75
2032: Whitmer +81
2028: Whitmer +77

Race - Latino
2040: Cohen +35
2036: Beshear +27
2032: Whitmer +37
2028: Whitmer +33

Race - Asian
2040: Cohen +30
2036: Beshear +25
2032: Whitmer +35
2028: Whitmer +30

Region - East
2040: Cohen +25
2036: Beshear +15
2032: Whitmer +24
2028: Whitmer +21

Region - Midwest
2040: Cohen +5
2036: Vance +2
2032: Whitmer +10
2028: Whitmer +8

Region - South
2040: Cohen +3
2036: Vance +1
2032: Whitmer +5
2028: Whitmer +1

Region - West
2040: Cohen +20
2036: Beshear +15
2032: Whitmer +27
2028: Whitmer +18

Religion - Protestant/Other Christian
2040: Vance +15
2036: Vance +23
2032: Gianforte +10
2028: Britt +17

Religion - Catholic
2040: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +4
2032: Whitmer +15
2028: Whitmer +9

Religion - Evangelical Christian
2040: Vance +61
2036: Vance +57
2032: Gianforte +55
2028: Britt +60

Religion - Jewish
2040: Cohen +90
2036: Beshear +80
2032: Whitmer +85
2028: Whitmer +82

Religion - Other
2040: Cohen +85
2036: Beshear +84
2032: Whitmer +90
2028: Whitmer +87

Gender - Male
2040: Vance +4
2036: Vance +8
2032: Whitmer +2
2028: Britt +3

Gender - Female
2040: Cohen +18
2036: Beshear +12
2032: Whitmer +25
2028: Whitmer +20

Area Type - Urban
2040: Cohen +27
2036: Beshear +20
2032: Whitmer +32
2028: Whitmer +27

Area Type - Rural
2040: Vance +14
2036: Vance +10
2032: Whitmer +2
2028: Britt +9

Area Type - Suburban
2040: Cohen +12
2036: Beshear +2
2032: Whitmer +10
2028: Whitmer +7

Income - Less Than $50,000
2040: Cohen +5
2036: Vance +1
2032: Whitmer +7
2028: Whitmer +4

Income - More Than $50,000
2040: Cohen +12
2036: Beshear +1
2032: Whitmer +15
2028: Whitmer +10

Vote Mainly - For Your Candidate
2040: Cohen +7
2036: Vance +5
2032: Whitmer +30
2028: Whitmer +20

Vote Mainly - Against Your Candidate’s Opponent
2040: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +18
2032: Whitmer +5
2028: Whitmer +1

Education - High School Diploma
2040: Vance +1
2036: Vance +10
2032: Whitmer +1
2028: Britt +7

Education - College Degree
2040: Cohen +10
2036: Beshear +5
2032: Whitmer +12
2028: Whitmer +10

First Time Voters
2040: Cohen +35
2036: Beshear +28
2032: Whitmer +45
2028: Whitmer +44

Vance Approval
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 49%

Favorability Ratings
Peter Cohen: 53% favorable, 35% unfavorable
JD Vance: 47% favorable, 45% unfavorable
Tammy Duckworth: 60% favorable, 15% unfavorable
Ted Cruz: 40% favorable, 50% unfavorable


Most Important Issue
Economy/Jobs 20%
Inflation 20%
Race Relations 7%
Crime 7%
Abortion 7%
Healthcare 7%
Climate Change 5%
National Debt 5%
Education 4%
Foreign Policy 4%
Trade 4%
Immigration 3%
Judicial Nominations 2%
Other 5%

Vote By Most Important Issue
Economy/Jobs - Cohen +20
Inflation - Cohen +40
Race Relations - Cohen +50
Crime - Cohen +1
Abortion - Cohen +30
Healthcare - Cohen +20
Climate Change - Cohen +80
National Debt - Vance +1
Education - Vance +5
Foreign Policy - Vance +20
Trade - Vance +5
Immigration - Vance +50
Judicial Nominations - Vance +10
Other 5% - Vance +1

Most Important Candidate Quality
Has good judgement 40%
Cares about people like me 30%
Can unite the country 15%
Is a strong leader 14%

Vote by most important candidate Quality
Has good judgment - Cohen +50
Cares about people like me - Cohen +1
Can unite the country - Cohen +10
Is a strong leader - Vance +30

Congressional & Senate

House of Representatives: D+7
Old Congress: 235D 190R
New Congress: 245D 180R

U.S. Senate: D+3
Old Senate: 54D 46R
New Senate: 55D 45R

[Steve from Lambeth]

Wait... Cohen wins Maine by 20 but still loses ME-2? Also, why do the states all have the same number of electoral votes as they did after the 2020 apportionment?

[BushKerry04]

Wait... Cohen wins Maine by 20 but still loses ME-2? Also, why do the states all have the same number of electoral votes as they did after the 2020 apportionment?

In answer to your question about the number of electoral votes, it's because I'm not sure how to change that lol.

With Maine, Cohen won big in CD1 lol.

Excellent questions, thank you.

[BushKerry04]

December 10, 2040: My cabinet nominees
After deliberations with multiple advisors, weeks of vetting, and a lot of conversations, I have extended offers to the following individuals to serve in my cabinet:

Secretary of State: Cory Booker, Attorney, Mayor of Newark, NJ (2007-2013), U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-present)

Secretary of Treasury: Adriana Kulger, Chief Economist of the Department of Labor (2011-2013), United States Executive Director of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2022-2023), Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2023-2031), Professor of Economics at Georgetown University (2031-present)

Secretary of Commerce: Jared Polis, Businessman, Member of the Colorado Board of Education (2001-2007), Congressman (2009-2019), Governor of Colorado (2019-2027), President of the University of Colorado (2028-present)

Council of Economic Advisers Chair: Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab

Secretary of Defense: Stephanie Murphy, National Security Specialist at the Department of Defense, Congresswoman from Florida (2017-2023), Private Sector (2023-2029), National Security Advisor (2029-2033), Director of National Intelligence (2033-2037), Private Sector (2037-present)

Director of National Intelligence: Brian Turner, Associate Deputy Director of the FBI (2022-2029), Director of the FBI (2029-2037), Private Sector (2037-present)

Director of the Central Intelligence Agency: Elissa Slotkin, CIA Analyst, Assistant Secretary of Defense (2014-2017), Congresswoman from Michigan (2019-2025), U.S. Senator from Michigan (2025-present)

Secretary of Homeland Security: Pete Buttigeig, U.S. Army, Private Consulting, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012-2020), Democratic presidential hopeful (2020), Secretary of Transportation (2021-2029), Chairman of the Democratic National Committee (2029-2033), Ambassador to Germany (2033-2037), Council on Foreign Relations Board (2037-present)

Ambassador to the United Nations: Andy Beshear, Attorney General of Kentucky (2016-2019), Governor of Kentucky (2019-2027), Private Law Practice (2027-2029), Ambassador to Canada (2029-2034), Democratic Presidential Candidate & Nominee (2035-2036), MSNBC Anchor (2037-present)

Attorney General: Dana Nessel, Attorney General of Michigan (2019-2027), Democratic National Committee Lead Counsel (2027-2032), U.S. District Attorney (2033-present)

Secretary of Interior: Bryan Newland, Assistant Secretary of Interior (2021-2029), Assistant U.S. Attorney General (2029-2037), Consultant (2037-present)

Secretary of Agriculture: Claire Babineaux-Fontenot, CEO of Feeding America (2018-present)

Secretary of Labor: Liz Schler, President of the AFL-CIO (2021-present)

Secretary of Health & Human Services: Mandy Cohen, North Carolina Secretary of Health & Human Services (2017-2021), Director of the CDC (2021-2031), Surgeon General of the United States (2031-2035), CEO of Mayo Clinic (2035-present)

Secretary of Housing & Urban Development: Priscilla Almodovar, Attorney, Businesswoman, former JP Morgan Executive, CEO of Fannie Mae (2022-present)

Secretary of Transportation: Mallory McMorrow, Engineer, State Senator from Michigan (2019-2027), Lieutenant Governor of Michigan (2027-2035), Governor of Michigan (2035-present)

Secretary of Energy: Lynn Jurich, Founder & former CEO of Sunrun, Sierra Club Board Member, and Investor

 
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Haley Stevens, Congresswoman from Michigan (2019-present)
 

Secretary of Education: Neeli Bendapudi, President of Pennsylvania State University (2022-present)

Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Shawna Kimbrell, U.S. Army Officer


White House Chief of Staff: Nicole Giordanio, Research Assistant, House Democratic Caucus (2020-2024); Legislative Aide, Congresswoman Haley Stevens (2025-2028), Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2029-2034), Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2034-2038), Cohen for President Chief of Staff (2039-present)

Director of the Office of Management & Budget: Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (2003-present)

United States Trade Representative: Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Executive & CEO

Small Business Administrator: Nan Whaley, Mayor of Dayton, OH (2014-2022), Director of Membership for U.S. Mayors (2023-2028), Executive Director of the Economic Development Partnership of Ohio (2029-2039)

Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy: Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA (1993-present)

Additionally, I have asked the following individuals to serve on my White House Staff:

Chief of Staff: Nicole Giordanio, Research Assistant, House Democratic Caucus (2020-2024); Legislative Aide, Congresswoman Haley Stevens (2025-2028), Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2029-2034), Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2034-2038), Cohen for President Chief of Staff (2039-present)

Deputy Chief of Staff: Raul Santos, Chief of Staff, Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester (2027-2032), Deputy Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Commerce (2032-2037), Director of Policy for the Democratic National Committee (2037-present)

Assistant to the White House Chief of Staff: Claire O’Rourke, Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2037-2038), Political Director, Cohen for President (2039-present)

White House Counsel: Joe Kennedy III, Congressman from Massachusetts (2013-2021), United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland (2022-2027), U.S. District Attorney (2028-2033), Attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund (2033-present) 

Senior Advisor to the President: Josh Shapiro, Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017-2023), Governor of Pennsylvania (2023-2031), Ambassador to Canada (2031-2035), President of the ACLU (2035-present)

Counselor to the President: Meghan Mitchell, Professor of Political Science, Franklin & Marshall College (2005-2025); Chief Pollster, Democratic Victory Strategy Group (2025-2027); Vice President, Smart Strategic Consulting (2027-2031); Deputy Director of Communications, Whitmer for President (2031-2032); Director of Government Affairs, Lenox Energy (2033-2038), Senior Advisor, Cohen for President (2039-present)

Director of Domestic Policy Council: Gina Raimondo, Businesswoman, Rhode Island State Treasurer (2011-2015), Governor of Rhode Island (2015-2021), U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021-2029), U.S. Secretary of Treasury (2029-2037), Business Consultant (2037-present)

National Security Advisor: Kristie Canegallo, Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security (2021-2029), Assistant Secretary of Defense (2029-2037), Professor of International Relations at Princeton University (2037-present)

Director of Political Strategy & Outreach: Ying Li, Deputy Director, White House Office of Political Affairs (2029-2031), Deputy Campaign Manager, Gretchen Whitmer for President (2031-2032), Issues Director, Democratic National Committee (2033-2038), Campaign Manager, Cohen for President (2039-present)

Director of the Office of Public Engagement: Christine Pelosi, Political Consultant, Assistant District Attorney, Writer, and former Congressional Chief of Staff (2001-2005)

White House National Climate Policy Advisor: Melanie Stansbury, Environmental Advisor, New Mexico State Legislator (2019-2021), Congresswoman from New Mexico (2021-present)

Communications Director: Rebecca Blumenstein, President of NBC (2023-present)

Press Secretary: Navi Patel, Communications Director for Senator Peter Cohen (2032-2038) and Cohen for President (2039-present)

Director of Speechwriting: Amelia Rodriguez, Communications Director, Cohen for U.S. Senate (2029-2031); Communications Director, Senator Peter Cohen (2031-2033); District Director, Senator Peter Cohen (2033-2038), Communications Director, Cohen for President (2039-present)

Chief of Staff to First Lady Rachel Cohen: Michelle Wilson, Legislative Aide to Senator Peter Cohen (2029-2031), U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Staff (2031-2035), Chief of Staff to the Governor of Delaware (2035-present)

Press Secretary for First Lady Rachel Cohen: Clark Stevens, Director of Media Relations for the Illinois Democratic Party (2033-2038), Senior Spokesperson, Cohen for President (2039-present)

[BushKerry04]

December 15, 2040: Leadership changes

The members of the House of Representatives who will resign to serve in my administration will do so on January 1, 2041. Special elections will determine their successors in the spring of 2041. Similar, the Senators who will resign to serve in my administration will do so the first week of January. Governors of their respective states will select interium Senators, who will either run in a 2041 special election or serve as a placeholder. I will resign from the United States Senate on December 20, the last day of the senate session. The Governor of Pennsylvania has announced that Paige Cognetti, a Mayor of Scranton (2019-2033) and Congresswoman (2033-present) will succeed me in the U.S. Senate. Vice President-elect Duckworth will also resign her senate seat on the 19th, and the Governor of Illinois has announced he will appoint a placeholder to her seat. State Senate Theresa Mah and Congresswoman Lauren Underwood are considered the front-runners for the Democratic nomination in the special election. Austin Davis, who served as Liuentant Governor of Michigan (2019-2027) and as Governor (2027-2035) will be appointed to the senate from Michigan after Elissa Slotkin resigns to become CIA Director, while Lieutenant Governor Jocelyn Benson will become Governor after Mallory McMorrow resigns to become Secretary of Transportation. In New Jersey, the Governor has announced the appointment of a placeholder when Cory Booker resigns to become Secretary of State; Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is the front-runner for the U.S. Senate seat in the special election.

In addition to these changes, both parties have held leadership elections. Below is a list of the leaders of both parties:


U.S. Senate Democratic Majority Leadership
Senate Majority Leader: Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; U.S. Senator (2007-present), U.S. Senate Democratic Leadership (2018-present), U.S. Senate Majority Whip (2034-present)
Senator Majority Whip: Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada; U.S. Senator (2017-present), U.S. Senate Democratic Leadership (2021-present)
Senate Majority Conference Vice Chair: Raphael Warnock of Georgia; U.S. Senator since 2021, U.S. Senate Democratic Leadership (2027-present)
Senate Majority Conference Vice Chair: John Fetterman of Pennsylvania; U.S. Senator (2023-present), U.S. Senate Democratic Leadership (2032-present)


U.S. Senate Republican Minority Leadership
Senate Minority Leader: John Thune of South Dakota; U.S. Senator (2005-present), U.S. Senate Republican Leadership (2009-present), U.S. Senate Republican Leader (2025-present)
Senate Minority Whip: Katie Britt of Alabama; U.S. Senator (2023-present), U.S. Senate Republican Leadership (2030-present), Republican presidential nominee (2028)
Senate Minority Conference Chair: Joni Ernst of Iowa: U.S. Senator (2015-present), U.S. Senate Republican Leadership (2021-present)


House Democratic Majority Leadership
Speaker of the House: Hakeem Jeffries of New York; Congressman (2013-present), Speaker of the House (2025-present)
House Majority Leader: Yadira Caraveo of Colorado; Congresswoman (2023-present), House Democratic Leadership (2035-present)
House Majority Whip:
House Democratic Caucus Chair: Sara Jacobs of California; Congresswoman (2021-present), House Democratic Leadership (2037-present)

House Republican Minority Leadership
House Minority Leader: Max Miller of Ohio; Congressman (2023-present), House Republican Leadership (2030-present), House Minority Leader (2037-present)
House Minority Whip: John James of Michigan; Congressman (2023-present), House Republican Leadership (2032-present), House Minority Whip (2037-present)
House Republican Caucus Chair: Kat Cammack of Florida; Congresswoman (2021-present), House Republican Leadership (2037-present)

Democratic National Committee Leaders
Chair: Reid Hoffman; Businessman, Founder of LinkedIn
Vice Chair: Austin Davis; Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2023-2031), Governor of Pennsylvania (2031-2039), Professor of Political Science (2039-present)
Vice Chair: Andrea Campbell, Lieutenant Governor of Massachussetts (2023-2031), Lieutnant Governor of Massachussetts (2031-2039), Governor of Massachussetts (2039-present)
Vice Chair: Hillary Scholten of Michigan; Congresswoman (2023-present)

Republican National Committee Leaders
Chair: Sarah Huckabee Sanders; Governor of Arkansas (2023-2035), U.S. Secretary of Education (2037-2039)
Vice Chair: Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019-present)
Vice Chair: Russell Coleman, Attorney General of Kentucky (2024-2032), Governor of Kentucky (2036-present)
Vice Chair: Byron Donalds, Congressman (2021-present)


January 20, 2041: Inauguration Day

“Madam Vice President, Chief Justice, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and my fellow Americans.

A long campaign is over, and now the work of governing begins. Before I proceed, let me thank my predecessor for his service to our country. Mr. President, I want to wish you and your family happiness and success in your future endeavors.

Today, once again, we celebrate the peaceful transfer of power in a nation that was built on a recognition that the source of power lies with the people, not with any one person. I am honored and humbled to stand before you here today as the 48th President of the United States.

This century has brought about extraordinary change. Like all eras throughout history, we’ve had triumphs and challenges, ups and downs, good times, and challenging ones. We’ve seen technological advancements that have made us safer, improved health, enhanced economic productivity, and opened avenues for those who otherwise would be shut out from the world.

For some, these changes have been fruitful. Others feel left out and left behind.

Today, America is at a crossroads. In the short-term, we are burdened by economic recession, inflation, and a sense that we are moving backwards in advancing progress and freedom. In the long-term, we face a climate crisis, economic displacement in pockets of our society, and an increasingly complex world.

Our mandate is to use our strengths to address these challenges. Americans are smarter, more productive, and more innovative today than at any time in our history. We are a nation of leaders, neighbors, friends, and volunteers who seek a better quality of life for ourselves, our families, our communities, our country, and this world.

As I said often during the campaign, I want to lead America towards a day of greater freedom, equality, and opportunity for all. Over the next four years, I intend to lead in a manner that is consistent with these principles, the Constitution, and the values my parents raised me to embrace. Tell the truth, serve others, speak out against injustice, and do what is right no matter what.

While a President is tasked with setting an example, making decisions, and working to advance the national interest, the presidency is not defined by the person who holds the office. It is defined by a free people entrusting an individual to help safeguard freedom and inspire a nation to advance human progress.

You have entrusted me to do this job, and it is now my responsibility to deliver for you so that you can reach your full potential.

As Doctor Martin Luther King Jr. stated, Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. And so we must straighten our backs and work for our freedom.

My fellow citizens, I stand before you today ready to work with Congress and the American people to ensure freedom reigns supreme across the land. And I intend to guarantee freedom reaches every single willing heart and mind.

With freedom comes responsibility. All of us, most especially me, must be responsible for the decisions we make. At the same time, a free society must help those who face misfortune by no fault of their own.

We have a responsibility to treat one another with respect, compassion, and grace. We owe it to ourselves and future generations to use all of our talents, intelligence, and skills to advance peace, prosperity, and sustainability here at home and abroad. And we must keep in mind that we aren’t just accountable to each other, but to history as well.


Already, history has been made. I am proud to be the first American President who happens to be Jewish, and I’m honored to stand beside the first American Vice President who happens to be Asian American.

Now, we have work to do to ensure we make more history, the kind of history future generations will look back on with pride and gratitude.

To those who are struggling to make ends meet, keep their businesses running, and see their dreams realized. You have my word that I will keep you in mind every day of my presidency, and we can and will get through this time of challenge together. To those who are pessimistic about our ability to come together to address the complex issues facing us all, I say history shows us that we can unite and do important work. These times demand each and every one of us to do our part to usher in a more equitable and prosperous future.

In closing, let me say that words can not adequately express how honored and humbled I am to have been given the privilege to serve as President. I intend to be a commander-in-chief who stands with every single person who wears or has worn the uniform of our country, and their families. I’ll listen to those who far too often do not have a voice in government. And I will stay true to the Constitutional oath I took moments ago.

I want to thank you for this honor, may God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America." - My inagural address