ProgressiveModerate
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« on: April 08, 2023, 05:54:56 PM » |
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Barring extraordinary circumstances, these are the ones I expect by default:
AZ - Sinema does way worse by running as indie
MN - Klobuchar does worse by nature of rural erosion, though she might still have a solid overperformance of Biden
NY - NY NUT maps of Ds getting 70% of the vote doesn't happen anymore; things are too polarized
ND - Ds won't invest a penny here
OH - Brown getting over 53% of the vote ain't happening, sorry guys.
WV - No explanation needed.
These are likely:
FL - Wins by more than a hair, especially as this seat will be lower priority for both sides this cycle
MA - Her 2018 performance was probably close to the realistic bottom for a federal Dem at this point
MO - Hawley probably does better than 2018 by nature of being a federal cycle and Ds not really investing too much
MT - I think it'd be hard for Tester to get over 50% again
PA - Debating this one after PA-Gov 2022, but chances are in a federal cycle against any sort of remotely competent R, he'll be held below a 10% victory.
TN - Don't expect serious investment on Ds part here.
WI - Simillar to PA, will be hard in a Pres cycle assuming Rs run someone remotely normal.
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