Abortion legality by state
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:48:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Abortion legality by state
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Abortion legality by state  (Read 6519 times)
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2023, 10:15:30 AM »

My prediction of what the map looks like c. 2027

“Restricted” are states that ban abortion at 6 weeks gestation. I put WI in this column for now bc it depends on how the courts rule.


No doubt exists as to how SCWIS rules.
I meant like, to what extent the ban is rolled back, whether it’s 6 weeks, 12/15, etc.

Dude, I'm pro-life and even I know it's practically certain that court decision will be 4/3 to read the equivalent of the 2022 Michigan amendment (so up to viability no questions asked and throughout the pregnancy for any health reason including mental health) into Wisconsin's constitution.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 12, 2023, 09:52:47 PM »

My prediction of what the map looks like c. 2027

“Restricted” are states that ban abortion at 6 weeks gestation. I put WI in this column for now bc it depends on how the courts rule.


If orange was 6-14 weeks, I’d agree. Except for Wisconsin. Kansas is going to have a liberal court for a while.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: May 17, 2023, 07:20:59 AM »
« Edited: May 17, 2023, 07:27:08 AM by Person Man »

With what is happening in NC,NE, and SC, I see a pattern.

I think a lot of socially moderate or otherwise swingy red states will adapt a 12 week limit to abortion and perhaps when the Democrats eventually win the ones trending towards them, they’ll explicitly legalize it…until 12 weeks. With medical necessity to viability to protect from maternal death, permanent impairment, or extreme emotional distress resulting from the condition of the fetus itself.

Maybe 15 or 18 weeks in states like Virginia where Republicans can still get lucky or states like Arizona that are now truly up for grabs at all levels. Maybe states like Rhode Island will be in this group but maybe not.

We could really be looking at a pretty smooth spectrum of laws by the time everything is said and done. Maybe it will end on Republicans triangulating on the issue once it becomes clear that they already got what they want. Kind of like Obamacare, really.

They finally are successful on something they have been fighting for 50 years, but the impact of it  is minimized and people more or less stop talking about it.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2023, 01:45:52 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.

Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2023, 04:56:19 PM »

Didn't expect that.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: May 31, 2023, 05:46:49 PM »

Lombardo will be seen as a RINO, like Sandoval. But he would be the perfect VP if the GOP wants to win the West if the Midwest is out of reach electorally.

Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: May 31, 2023, 06:32:19 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2023, 07:48:23 AM by Person Man »


He might even be at least as palpable as Sisolak. The election in Nevada probably was the best outcome for ordinary liberal people.
Logged
Snow Belt Republican
Ragnaroni
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,349
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: 1.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2023, 02:05:10 AM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


*checks notes* HES A ING RINO
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 02, 2023, 07:49:08 AM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


*checks notes* HES A ING RINO

I'm not sure what Chris Sununu is but isn't JBE a DINO? We have no problem with him.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,999
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 02, 2023, 08:34:02 AM »

Far from the ideal map:



Save it for the Political Debate forum or the garbage can known as US General Discussion.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 16, 2023, 08:47:01 AM »





Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 04, 2023, 12:33:23 PM »







I guess it worked out and made everyone look good, then.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2023, 10:26:19 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2023, 10:29:47 AM by Just Passion Through »


Making Wisconsin blue now. The WISC will have a liberal majority by the time it's appealed.

North Dakota has a 6-week law which is effectively moot since the only abortion clinic there has since moved a couple miles across the border into Minnesota.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2023, 01:05:24 PM »

The big battleground this year:



Over 710k signatures submitted (with a minimum of 413k needed).
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,659


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2023, 01:15:50 PM »

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1677376287764013073?s=19
Making Wisconsin blue now. The WISC will have a liberal majority by the time it's appealed.

North Dakota has a 6-week law which is effectively moot since the only abortion clinic there has since moved a couple miles across the border into Minnesota.

That article says that "abortion access will not be immediately restored".  I agree that the writing is on the wall in Wisconsin, but as of now, abortion is still illegal there.

Also, Indiana's abortion ban will soon go into effect after the state's Supreme Court ruled in its favor.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/indianas-top-court-allows-near-total-abortion-ban-2023-06-30/
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,659


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2023, 01:01:53 AM »

Abortion is once again illegal after a heartbeat in Iowa after the state re-passed a heartbeat bill.  The Iowa Supreme Court didn't strike the previous one down due to violating the state Constitution but due to the nature of passing a law when it was considered unconstitutional.  It takes effect immediately.  There will likely be legal challenges, but I expect it to prevail in the end.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/14/politics/iowa-abortion-ban-reynolds-sign/index.html
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: July 16, 2023, 05:58:59 PM »

Quote
After Gov. Kim Reynolds signed new abortion restrictions into law Friday, most abortions across Iowa are banned. A judge is considering a temporary block of the new law. That decision is expected Monday.

Meanwhile, one organization says Iowans seeking abortions can still get them.

"Abortion is still legal in this country," Midwest Access Coalition director of strategic partnerships Alison Dreith said.

The Midwest Access Coalition is something called an abortion fund. It helps people travel around the Midwest, and sometimes outside of it, to access legal abortions.

"I kind of call it like an abortion concierge or an abortion travel agency almost," Dreith said.

Despite years of political leadership fighting for pro-life policies, Iowa used to be a state Dreith brought people to for abortions.

[...]

For each state that imposes restrictions, it also means there are thousands more potential clients that may reach out to the Midwest Access Coalition.

"Our numbers just keep on going up. In 2021 we saw 800 clients, last year we saw 1,620, so that's more than double what we had seen the previous year, and we're already outpacing that number again this year," Dreith said.
KCCI

The abortion tourism industry will be booming in Illinois. Who wants travel tickets?
Logged
Zenobiyl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 364
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2023, 05:25:55 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2023, 05:46:09 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.

That's exactly why Nevada was the GOP's only pickup last year, but okay, if they don't want to learn any lessons that's fine by me as a Democrat.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,550
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2023, 06:07:21 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.

That's exactly why Nevada was the GOP's only pickup last year, but okay, if they don't want to learn any lessons that's fine by me as a Democrat.

Lombardo is low key better than Sisolak, who advocated for weird technocratic company towns during his time in office.
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,849


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2023, 06:14:53 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.

That's exactly why Nevada was the GOP's only pickup last year, but okay, if they don't want to learn any lessons that's fine by me as a Democrat.

This is the same suicidal crap that doomed the Tea Party and the Bernie Bro movement and every other political disaster. They would rather give Democrats control over the state than win with a conservative who pretends to support moderate policies in order to win. I don't think Republicans are going to stop this any time soon.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2023, 06:16:22 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2023, 08:32:15 PM by Oryxslayer »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.

That's exactly why Nevada was the GOP's only pickup last year, but okay, if they don't want to learn any lessons that's fine by me as a Democrat.

I mean he was elected alongside a de facto Democratic supermajority. And that was only very slightly cause of gerrymandering: the heterogeneous population distribution in Clark, the comparative distribution of regular voters between majority white and heavily Hispanic seats, and the relative size of those seats to the overall population means the map will always have elected dem majorities.  Like Hogan in MD, there's not much you can do in that situation, even if your base is more in line with the national GOP then say a New England Governor's coalition.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: August 08, 2023, 09:46:38 PM »

Joe Lombardo signs an abortion safe haven bill in Nevada.


Best of luck in the next primary, Joe.

Brian Sandoval would've signed this bill, and he himself defeated a sitting governor in the primary.
Logged
xavier110
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,510
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: August 09, 2023, 05:37:04 PM »

Organized effort kicks off to get abortion on 2024 Arizona ballot

This could be what seals it for Biden and Gallego here.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,019


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: August 22, 2023, 02:19:26 PM »

With what is happening in NC,NE, and SC, I see a pattern.

I think a lot of socially moderate or otherwise swingy red states will adapt a 12 week limit to abortion and perhaps when the Democrats eventually win the ones trending towards them, they’ll explicitly legalize it…until 12 weeks. With medical necessity to viability to protect from maternal death, permanent impairment, or extreme emotional distress resulting from the condition of the fetus itself.

Maybe 15 or 18 weeks in states like Virginia where Republicans can still get lucky or states like Arizona that are now truly up for grabs at all levels. Maybe states like Rhode Island will be in this group but maybe not.

We could really be looking at a pretty smooth spectrum of laws by the time everything is said and done. Maybe it will end on Republicans triangulating on the issue once it becomes clear that they already got what they want. Kind of like Obamacare, really.

They finally are successful on something they have been fighting for 50 years, but the impact of it  is minimized and people more or less stop talking about it.

Oh, the SC leglislature passed a 6 week ban after several special sessions where it failed, but it was blocked by the state Supreme Court for violating SC's right to privacy in our constitution.

The problem is, one of the justices who voted to block the law has retired due to age limits. The legislature replaced her with a man and the law is back under judicial review. People expect the new justice to vote to allow the law to go into effect, but so far no decision has been rendered.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 11 queries.