Which Jim will win by more? Banks or Justice?

[MichaelM24]

Justice. Banks probably will not even be the nominee.

What happened to Jim Banks?

Nothing; its just that its hard to beat a sitting Governor in an open US Senate primary.

Holcomb hasn’t given any indication that he will run and I don’t expect him to.

And even if Holcomb did run, I can imagine plenty of more conservative Republicans getting behind a candidate like Banks (who is my current congressman, and always does quite well in Indiana's 3rd).

Just look at Donald Rainwater's numbers in the 2020 Indiana gubernatorial - a Libertarian getting 11.4% is impressed, and at least 8% of that came from disaffected Republican voters.

Even a closer match would be Diego Morales ousting incumbent Holli Sullivan in the 2020 Secretary of State race, and Sullivan was chosen by Holcomb.

It'd still be difficult for Banks to defeat an incumbent Republican, if Holcomb did run, but I think it could definitely be done in a state like Indiana.