What senators improve on their 2018 performances and who does worse?
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  What senators improve on their 2018 performances and who does worse?
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Tekken_Guy
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« on: April 08, 2023, 05:17:43 PM »

What senators will improve on their 2018 performances, and which ones do worse?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2023, 05:54:56 PM »

Barring extraordinary circumstances, these are the ones I expect by default:

AZ - Sinema does way worse by running as indie
MN - Klobuchar does worse by nature of rural erosion, though she might still have a solid overperformance of Biden
NY - NY NUT maps of Ds getting 70% of the vote doesn't happen anymore; things are too polarized
ND - Ds won't invest a penny here
OH - Brown getting over 53% of the vote ain't happening, sorry guys.
WV - No explanation needed.

These are likely:

FL - Wins by more than a hair, especially as this seat will be lower priority for both sides this cycle
MA - Her 2018 performance was probably close to the realistic bottom for a federal Dem at this point
MO - Hawley probably does better than 2018 by nature of being a federal cycle and Ds not really investing too much
MT - I think it'd be hard for Tester to get over 50% again
PA - Debating this one after PA-Gov 2022, but chances are in a federal cycle against any sort of remotely competent R, he'll be held below a 10% victory.
TN - Don't expect serious investment on Ds part here.
WI - Simillar to PA, will be hard in a Pres cycle assuming Rs run someone remotely normal.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2023, 06:23:38 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2023, 06:28:58 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Improvement Scott, Kaine, Gallego, Rosen, Blackburn, Wicker
Worse Cruz, Hawley, Casey, Brown, Baldwin, Slotkin, Manchin and Tester

Baldwin, Slotkin, Casey should win 4/7 pts and Cruz, Hawley, Tester and Manchin and Brown are targeting

FL and IA are Default R due to NAACP and Rev Barber boycott of these States
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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2023, 06:39:20 PM »

Better:

Cramer (ND)
Hawley (MO)
Scott (FL)
Blackburn (TN)
Warren (MA)
Menendez (NJ)

Worse:

Sinema (AZ)
Manchin (WV)
Brown (OH)
Tester (MT)
Heinrich (NM)
Rosen (NV)
Klobuchar (MN)
Kaine (VA)
Kilibrand (NY)
Baldwin (WI)

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2023, 06:55:06 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2023, 07:01:50 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Obviously Scott, Blackburn, Cramer are gonna do better

Obviously, Sinema, Brown, Casey, Baldwin, are , Tester and Manchin are gonna do worse

There is no Adam Laxalt in NV forget NV

Hawley only won by 6 and if Eday was held today he would win by 5 he is vulnerable, users act like Hawley won by 20 like 22

Cruz and Hawley are endangered species because TX banned abortion pills and Blocking Student loans Forgiveness and Hawley is being challenge by a populist U know RS don't want to believe Cruz and Hawley are in trouble because if we have no pickups they take the S but what did WI tell you the RS are bleeding support from white females and they were losing support in 22 because Johnson, Budd and Vance were losing before IAN it's reverting right back to 22 levels before IAN that's why both DeSantis and Trump are underwater against Biden or whomever D's nominated Harris or RFK Jr

Scott is still vulnerable it's only targeted along with TX if Kunce fails to make up for MT and WV 51/50 which he wont
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MarkD
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2023, 08:25:21 PM »

Better: R. Scott, King, Warren, Hawley, Heinrich, Cramer, Blackburn, and Cruz.

Worse: Sinema (if she even runs), Murphy, Hirono, Gillibrand, Brown, Casey, Cantwell, and Baldwin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2023, 09:44:30 PM »

Better: R. Scott, King, Warren, Hawley, Heinrich, Cramer, Blackburn, and Cruz.

Worse: Sinema (if she even runs), Murphy, Hirono, Gillibrand, Brown, Casey, Cantwell, and Baldwin.

Hawley won by 6 pts, over Claire McCaskill, not 20. Kunce is gonna do better Hawley isn't winning by 20 like Schmidt did over Valentine, we have to be patient for a poll
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2023, 11:27:55 PM »

Better: R. Scott, Warren, Hawley, Cramer, Blackburn, Murphy,  Sanders, Wicker, Menendez, Cruz

Worse: Sinema, Tester, Brown, Manchin, Kaine, Klobuchar, Baldwin, Romney, Rosen
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