Who does the indictment help in the primary?
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  Who does the indictment help in the primary?
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Author Topic: Who does the indictment help in the primary?  (Read 1230 times)
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« on: March 30, 2023, 05:14:01 PM »

I'm not ready to make any predictions a year out, but the DeSantis supporters shouldn't be celebrating just yet. There's just as likely that there will be a rally-around-the-flag backlash effect for the "witch hunt," and the fact that it's just about Stormy Daniels could make some on the fence more sympathetic to Trump.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2023, 05:27:23 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 05:37:04 PM by oldtimer »

I'm not ready to make any predictions a year out, but the DeSantis supporters shouldn't be celebrating just yet. There's just as likely that there will be a rally-around-the-flag backlash effect for the "witch hunt," and the fact that it's just about Stormy Daniels could make some on the fence more sympathetic to Trump.
Oh it's over.

If the charges are about the Stormy Daniels stuff Trump's nomination is his.

Guess I have to start compiling Trump vs Biden polling averages again.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2023, 05:30:38 PM »

It was always his, DeSantis isn't beating Biden the average is 2 pts either Way that's MOE it's 20 mnths til Eday
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2023, 05:36:06 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2023, 05:39:24 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2023, 05:41:22 PM »

DeSantis because republicans are tired of this crap and want someone who actually leads
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2023, 05:41:39 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
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Suburbia
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2023, 05:43:52 PM »

Trump
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2023, 05:46:53 PM »

Trump, it cause a rally around the flag moment for him.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2023, 05:47:40 PM »

DeSantis because republicans are tired of this crap and want someone who actually leads

You and many others would spare yourselves a lot of grief if you just accepted how your party's primary voters really think.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2023, 05:49:57 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
Both to some degree.

However DeSantis would start as the severe underdog rather than the favourite now.

I always thought that if Ted Cruz could win Iowa, then so would DeSantis whose support comes almost exclusively from Cruz 16' primary voters.

Then he could have won N.H with the support of Sununu, and the nomination would be his.

Now all that goes to the dust bin.
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Redban
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2023, 05:51:14 PM »

It helps Trump in the primary. His supporters will get pissed off and become more eager to vote for him. But in the general, indictments and pending criminal charges hurt Trump
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2023, 05:51:32 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
Both to some degree.

However DeSantis would start as the severe underdog rather than the favourite now.

I always thought that if Ted Cruz could win Iowa, then so would DeSantis whose support comes almost exclusively from Cruz 16' primary voters.

Then he could have won N.H with the support of Sununu, and the nomination would be his.

Now all that goes to the dust bin.


Except Trump was already a strong favorite even before the indictment.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2023, 06:11:59 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
Both to some degree.

However DeSantis would start as the severe underdog rather than the favourite now.

I always thought that if Ted Cruz could win Iowa, then so would DeSantis whose support comes almost exclusively from Cruz 16' primary voters.

Then he could have won N.H with the support of Sununu, and the nomination would be his.

Now all that goes to the dust bin.


Except Trump was already a strong favorite even before the indictment.
Not after the bad way he announced his nomination, and how Ted Cruz performed in Iowa.

But that belongs to the past now.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2023, 06:14:09 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
Both to some degree.

However DeSantis would start as the severe underdog rather than the favourite now.

I always thought that if Ted Cruz could win Iowa, then so would DeSantis whose support comes almost exclusively from Cruz 16' primary voters.

Then he could have won N.H with the support of Sununu, and the nomination would be his.

Now all that goes to the dust bin.


Except Trump was already a strong favorite even before the indictment.
Not after the bad way he announced his nomination, and how Ted Cruz performed in Iowa.

But that belongs to the past now.

Have you seen the recent polls? Trump is way up.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2023, 06:22:33 PM »

I am far from convinced that either of those two will get the nomination.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2023, 06:27:05 PM »

Trump, 100%.

The more victimized and persecuted he can claim he is, the more the numbskull base will positively react and for some deranged reason project themselves onto him.
It's very simple.

Republican voters believe they are persecuted by the liberals, so they tend to defend and support those who they see suffers a similar fate as they, or at least support those who fight back.

Same thing happened to Democrats with the Kennedy family.

The big question is if it just hardens his current base of support, or leads to mass defections from DeSantis’s camp to Trump?
Both to some degree.

However DeSantis would start as the severe underdog rather than the favourite now.

I always thought that if Ted Cruz could win Iowa, then so would DeSantis whose support comes almost exclusively from Cruz 16' primary voters.

Then he could have won N.H with the support of Sununu, and the nomination would be his.

Now all that goes to the dust bin.


Except Trump was already a strong favorite even before the indictment.
Not after the bad way he announced his nomination, and how Ted Cruz performed in Iowa.

But that belongs to the past now.

Have you seen the recent polls? Trump is way up.
Yeah, people have been rallying around him.

But again the presidential election depends on the ability of the Biden Administration to delay or prevent any major crisis, not who's the republican nominee.


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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2023, 06:47:52 PM »

It helps Trump in the primary. His supporters will get pissed off and become more eager to vote for him. But in the general, indictments and pending criminal charges hurt Trump

Energizing voters who were already planning on voting for him is a different thing entirely from flipping supporters from DeSantis or other Republicans.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2023, 07:16:07 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 10:26:45 PM by TodayJunior »

Trump, and it’s not even close. This will more or less unite the GOP behind him as they (wrongfully) see him as some kind of martyr.

I hate this timeline.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2023, 07:46:11 PM »

DeSantis obviously, but not much.
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Spectator
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2023, 06:52:39 AM »

It helps Trump in the primary. His supporters will get pissed off and become more eager to vote for him. But in the general, indictments and pending criminal charges hurt Trump

Energizing voters who were already planning on voting for him is a different thing entirely from flipping supporters from DeSantis or other Republicans.

Well when he’s clearing 50% in the polls anyway, does it matter? Seems like a cope.
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Agafin
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2023, 07:51:44 AM »

Helps Trump in the short term. Hard to know what happens after a while.
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