The decline in English ancestry
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  The decline in English ancestry
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Author Topic: The decline in English ancestry  (Read 507 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« on: March 30, 2023, 01:47:24 PM »
« edited: March 30, 2023, 02:01:40 PM by King of Kensington »

It's pretty well understood that English ancestry is undercounted in the US, and the drop-off since the ancestry was first asked in 1980.  English dropped to a much greater degree than the other two most common ancestries, German and Irish.

English bottomed out in 2000 and has since had a partial recovery.  German and Irish has remained more or less flat since 2000. However had it followed the same trajectory as German or Irish ancestry responses there would be at least 10 million more English ancestry (i.e. around 42 million, matching German ancestry).

English ancestry

1980  49,598,035  21.9%  
2000  24,509,692  8.7%
2021  31,825,171  9.6%

German ancestry

1980  49,224,146  21.7%
2000  42,841,569  15.2%
2021  42,220,180  12.7%

Irish ancestry

1980  40,165,702  17.7% (Scotch-Irish not separately counted in 1980)
2000  34,844,031  12.3% (including 4,319,292 Scotch-Irish)
2021  33,991,010  10.2% (including 2,495,113 Scotch-Irish)

Much of the explanation for the decline has been that "American" became an option and then whites of British ancestry particularly in the South switched from English to American.  

But American ancestry was recorded in 1980.  The Census Bureau did not consider "American" an ancestry, but it did record it as a subcategory of "ancestry unspecified."  Initially only American single responses were recorded (so Irish + American would be categorized as Irish only), but this was changed recently).

American ancestry  

1980  13,298,761 5.9%
2000  20,188,305 7.2%
2021  17,625,957 5.3% (14,791,807 single ancestry)

We can see some evidence of English/American "switching" between 1980 and 2000.  The recent increase in English corresponds closely to a decline in American.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=534969.msg8944838#msg8944838

But it doesn't account for the majority of the decrease.  American ancestry responses increased by 7 million, but there was a decline in English responses by 25 million - half the 1980 total!  It has only partially recovered from that.

Part of the reason may be that the Census Bureau later limited responses to two ancestries.  English is likely disproportionately impacted.

There was also an increase in unreported responses which doubled between 1980 and 2000.  It's likely the unreported are disproportionately of British ancestry.

Not reported

1980  23,182,019  9.1%
2000  53,673,566  19.1%
2021  70,109,559  21.1%

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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2023, 01:59:55 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 02:03:26 PM by King of Kensington »

Looking at the South (using percentages of the population):

English ancestry

1980  26%
2000  8.4%
2021  10.2%

American ancestry

1980  9%
2000  11.2%
2021  7.5% (6.5% single ancestry)

German ancestry

1980  14.2%
2000  10%
2021  9.1%

Irish ancestry

1980  16.8%
2000  10.7%
2021  9.1%

Not reported

1980  13.7%
2000  n/a
2021  22.1%

The South was clearly the most English-reporting region in 1980, but the drop in English ancestry responses was more pronounced than in the rest of the country.  Odd to see it fall behind German and Irish in 2000.  
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Bismarck
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2023, 06:07:37 PM »

Looking at the South (using percentages of the population):

English ancestry

1980  26%
2000  8.4%
2021  10.2%

American ancestry

1980  9%
2000  11.2%
2021  7.5% (6.5% single ancestry)

German ancestry

1980  14.2%
2000  10%
2021  9.1%

Irish ancestry

1980  16.8%
2000  10.7%
2021  9.1%

Not reported

1980  13.7%
2000  n/a
2021  22.1%

The South was clearly the most English-reporting region in 1980, but the drop in English ancestry responses was more pronounced than in the rest of the country.  Odd to see it fall behind German and Irish in 2000.  

Yeah this is a great example of how underreported English ancestry really is. There is just no possibke way based on immigration history and moving patterns that the south could have more Germans or Irish than English.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2023, 07:27:07 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 07:41:35 PM by King of Kensington »

Alabama

1980  1,139,976  29.3%
2021  613,556  12.2%

Arkansas

1980  631,539  27.6%
2021  356,361  11.8%

Georgia

1980  1,584,303  29%
2021  1,161,528  10.8%

Kentucky

1980  1,267,079  34.6%
2021  681,168  15.1%

Louisiana

1980  750,621  17.8%
2021  338,376  7.4%

North Carolina

1980  1,778,008  30.2%
2021  1,369,470  13%

South Carolina

1980  803,079  25.7%
2021  641,310  12.4%

Tennessee

1980  1,435,147  31.3%
2021  940,489  13.5%

Virginia

1980  1,695,627  31.7%
2021  1,035,264  12%


Though at least the "ranking" has been corrected at least.  English is the top ancestry in all the above states except Alabama (where it's edged out for #2 by "American" ancestry).  
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2023, 08:31:10 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 08:58:54 PM by King of Kensington »

A conservative estimate would add 10 million to the English ancestry population, matching German.

Trying this out for three lower midwestern states.

Indiana

1980

German  1,776,000  
English 1,356,000

2021

German  1,369,000
English  787,000
Expected English with 1980 ratio  1,045,000
Estimated English (x1.31)  1,031,000

Missouri

1980

German  1,575,000
English  1,197,000

2021

German  1,350,000
English  736,000
Expected English with 1980 ratio  1,026,000
Estimated English (x1.31) 964,000

Ohio

1980

German  3,605,000
English  2,371,000

2021

German  2,647,000
English  1,325,000
Expected English with 1980 ratio  1,740,000
Estimated English (x1.31)  1,735,000
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2023, 03:11:49 PM »

American ancestry (1980) and native white native parentage as % of white population (1890)

West Virginia  14.8%  92%
Kentucky  14.4%  88.5%
Arkansas  13.4%  95.4%
Alabama  13%  95.6%
Tennessee  12.4%  96.1%
Georgia  11.6%  96.8%
Oklahoma  10.4%  87.8%
South Carolina  10.1%  96.4%
North Carolina  9.8%  99%
Mississippi  9.7%  95.5%
Virginia  9.1%  95.8%
Indiana  8.4%  79.2%
Maine  7.4% 77.1%
Missouri  7.4%  73.6%
Kansas  7.1%  72.3%
Vermont  7%  68.5%
Ohio  6.6%  65.2%
Florida  6.5%  85%
Texas  6.2%  80.8%
Louisiana  5.9%  74.1%
Delaware  5.6%  78.1%
Oregon  5.6%  68%
Maryland  5.2%  69.8%
New Hampshire  4.9%  67.8%
Washington  4.7%  55.4%
Colorado  4.2%  60.1%
Iowa  4.2%  56.2%
Montana  4.2%  44.7%
Illinois  4.1%  50.2%
Michigan  4.1%  44.8%
New York  3.9%  42.8%
Pennsylvania  3.9%  63%
South Dakota  3.8%  39.2%
New Jersey  3.7%  50.1%
Nebraska  3.6%  57.1%
Connecticut  3.3%  48.9%
Massachusetts  3.3%  43.4%
California  3.2%  45.2%
Utah  3.2%  33.6%
Rhode Island  2.7%  40.8%
North Dakota  2.5%  20.8%
Wisconsin  2.2%  26.1%
Minnesota  2.2%  24.3%


Territories and states with population below 100,000 in population excluded.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2023, 06:03:16 PM »

The 1890 census certainly shows a North-South split, with the South being bypassed by 19th century immigration.  In general, high levels of NWNP in 1890 is strongly correlated with high American ancestry in 1890.

The SCE European wave of the early 20th century is more skewed to the Northeast.

Southern, Central and Eastern European foreign stock, 1930

MA  20%
RI  23%
CT  34%
NY  39%
NJ  31%
PA  23%
OH  14%
IL  20%
MI  16%
CA  11%

(Obviously by 1930 a lot of the descendants of 19th century immigration would be part of the "native stock" population).
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