Hardest Trump'16-Biden'20 state for Rs to win back?
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  Hardest Trump'16-Biden'20 state for Rs to win back?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What is the hardest Trump 2016 -> Biden 2020 state for Republicans to win back? Select 1 option for both Trump and DeSantis each.
#1
Arizona (DeSantis)		  
#2
Georgia (DeSantis)		  
#3
Michigan (DeSantis)		  
#4
Pennsylvania (DeSantis)		  
#5
Wisconsin (DeSantis)		  
#6
Arizona (Trump)		  
#7
Georgia (Trump)		  
#8
Michigan Trump)		  
#9
Pennsylvania (Trump)		  
#10
Wisconsin (Trump)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 46

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Author Topic: Hardest Trump'16-Biden'20 state for Rs to win back?  (Read 659 times)
Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« on: March 27, 2023, 04:26:02 PM »
--skip--
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BG-NY
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2023, 04:30:46 PM »
Georgia
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Redban
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2023, 05:18:33 PM »
Michigan
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2023, 07:14:06 PM »
Imma say Arizona. The issue for AZ Rs is that like 90% of the population is concentrated in greater Pheonix and Tucson, both of which have been shifting left pretty consistently for a while. If Ds improve by even 1-2% in either metro, it'll be impossible for the GOP to make up the ground.

Also for 2022, remember Kelly and Hobb's victories were with unfavorable turnout (low Hispanics). They improved 5-10% over Biden in a lot of precincts, especially around Tucson and Pheonix suburbs. Biden is def not Ds max.

Georgia has solid shifts, but was still pretty close in 2022 and really comes down to black turnout/support; 2022 indicated Ds may have rural turnout issues in the blackbelt.

Michigan is a bit of a simillar situation to AZ, but rural MI is a bit more meaty.

All 3 of these states I see as slightly D-favored for now.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2023, 08:24:17 PM »
The answer is Michigan for both of them. Hot take, but I think it's the Republicans 2008-Indiana.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2023, 08:39:34 PM »
Michigan, but Pennsylvania isn’t as far behind as many think.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2023, 04:33:06 PM »
Michigan by far.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2023, 12:24:26 AM »
Desantis isn’t wearing winning Michigan
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2023, 12:49:51 AM »
LoL if Trump is the nominee it's a 303 with wave insurance there is no such thing as a 303 map only before we won AZ and GA in 2018 in 2016 it was a 279 map
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Blow by blow, the passion dies
LeonelBrizola
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2023, 04:14:01 AM »
MI given how incompetent the Michigan GOP is
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2023, 09:14:28 AM »
MI for DeSantis, and either MI or AZ for Trump.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2023, 09:15:57 AM »
Quote from: FloridaMan1845 on March 30, 2023, 09:14:28 AM
MI for DeSantis, and either MI or AZ for Trump.
I tentatively agree.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2023, 09:16:09 AM »
MI has a D state legislature and Maricopa county is a D not R and Ruben Gallego leads Lake in a S matchups
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2023, 09:56:43 AM »
MI > PA > GA > AZ > WI

With both Trump and DeSantis, though AZ and WI could be in reverse order with latter.
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