Why did Thomas Dewey win Michigan in 1948?
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  Why did Thomas Dewey win Michigan in 1948?
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Author Topic: Why did Thomas Dewey win Michigan in 1948?  (Read 1253 times)
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LeonelBrizola
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« on: March 29, 2023, 07:25:59 PM »

He literally ran a vague campaign where one of the main slogans was "You know the future is still ahead of you"
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2023, 07:49:04 PM »

The Great Lakes states were tight.  Dewey may have had a slight boost in Michigan because he was born and grew up there.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2023, 09:00:59 AM »

The Great Lakes states were tight.  Dewey may have had a slight boost in Michigan because he was born and grew up there.

Wasn't MI a stronghold of the isolationist movement in the mid 20th century? Btw, MI voted R in 1940 as well and narrowly flipped back to FDR in 1944. Was the only state that went from red to blue from 1940 to 1944.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2023, 12:39:27 PM »

Was Michigan particularly isolationist?  I don't think it would be as much of a stronghold as Wisconsin, for example. 
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2023, 09:31:26 PM »

Michigan was still a Republican-leaning state at that point.  It had been very Republican early in the century, with a lot of the population being in small towns from Republican-friendly ancestry (New England Yankee, German, Dutch, etc.).  But it had been gradually becoming less Republican, and this continued to wins by JFK and Humphrey in the 1960s.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2023, 10:14:06 PM »

He also won PA...the last time a losing Republican would carry the state. The GOP was largely a northern party back then.
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TheTide
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2023, 02:26:10 AM »

Michigan was still a Republican-leaning state at that point.  It had been very Republican early in the century, with a lot of the population being in small towns from Republican-friendly ancestry (New England Yankee, German, Dutch, etc.).  But it had been gradually becoming less Republican, and this continued to wins by JFK and Humphrey in the 1960s.

The African-American vote becoming ~90% Democratic after the 1964 CRA almost certainly helped a lot in Michigan.
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shua
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2023, 02:02:49 PM »

Michigan was still a Republican-leaning state at that point.  It had been very Republican early in the century, with a lot of the population being in small towns from Republican-friendly ancestry (New England Yankee, German, Dutch, etc.).  But it had been gradually becoming less Republican, and this continued to wins by JFK and Humphrey in the 1960s.

The African-American vote becoming ~90% Democratic after the 1964 CRA almost certainly helped a lot in Michigan.

Yes, though since that vote was already Democratic in most places by the 1940s, the bigger difference there is the increase as a % of the Michigan population over the course of the Great Migration.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2023, 08:50:15 PM »

Michigan was a Republican-leaning state in those days. Willkie won it in 1940 and Dewey came very close in 1944. It'd be weirder if Dewey didn't win it in 1948.
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2023, 09:47:04 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2023, 09:57:09 PM by DS0816 »

He literally ran a vague campaign where one of the main slogans was "You know the future is still ahead of you"

I am sure there is plenty of information available on the topic of The 1948 United States Presidential Election.

This is not really about Michigan only.

In 1944, a fourth and final term for Democratic incumbent Franklin Roosevelt, the 32nd U.S. president won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7.50 percentage points; carried 36 of 48 states; and won 75 percent of the nation’s states. Of the Top 10 populous states, FDR carried 9.

In 1948, a Democratic hold for a full first-term election for incumbent Harry Truman, the 33rd U.S. president won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.48 percentage points (just 0.03 above 2020 Democratic pickup winner Joe Biden); carried 28 of 48 states; and won 58.33 percent of the nation’s states. Of the Top 10 populous states, Truman carried 6.

After a party wins a second consecutive cycle, whether or not it wins a third, it more often than not sees an underperformance. Exceptions include: 1904 Teddy Roosevelt, following two terms won in 1896 and 1900 by William McKinley; and the three cycles of the 1920s, by separate winners, with 1928 Herbert Hoover having scored the highest with 40 of 48 states for 83.33 percent of the nation’s states.

The below images are the Top 10 populous states carried by 1944 Franklin Roosevelt and 1948 Harry Truman. The one Top 10 state FDR did not carry: Ohio. 1948 Truman flipped it. 1948 Thomas Dewey counter-flipped Top 10s New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey.

I will also note that 1948 losing Republican Thomas Dewey and 1988 losing Democrat Michael Dukakis have this in common: While they both flipped numerous states, each one carried zero of the eleven Old Confederacy states.




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