Electoral Trend By State Between 1920 and 1952

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Key:

1-5 Point Trend: >30%
5-10 Point Trend: >40%
10-15 Point Trend: >50%
15-20 Point Trend: >60%
20-30 Point Trend: >70%
30-40 Point Trend: >80%
40-50 Point Trend: >90%
50+ Point Trend: >100%

Done at the Presidential level.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Anyway, if your take on the Southern strategy is that White Southerners were 100% on board with the New Deal and then defected only because of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 this should disprove that. Obviously, it's after the first endorsement of civil rights by Truman in 1948, but 1920 vs 1952 makes for a good comparison because both were R landslides in somewhat similar circumstances.

[sinngael]

Isn't 1928 sort of seen now as the first chink in the solid south, the Roosevelt landslides just covered it up for 20 years.

[Roll Roons]

Isn't 1928 sort of seen now as the first chink in the solid south, the Roosevelt landslides just covered it up for 20 years.

Effectively yes. A lot of white Southerners did not like the fact that Al Smith was an Irish/Italian Catholic from New York City.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks surprisingly modern!  Pretty clearly predicts 1988 and 1972 (by state margins).

Also gives a pretty clear sense of how relatively rigged each Southern state was back then.  TX and FL are partly about migration, but LA/MS/SC/VA were all totally fake "elections" in that era while it was intermediate in AR/AL/GA/NC and mostly free elections in TN.

[Skill and Chance]

Isn't 1928 sort of seen now as the first chink in the solid south, the Roosevelt landslides just covered it up for 20 years.

Effectively yes. A lot of white Southerners did not like the fact that Al Smith was an Irish/Italian Catholic from New York City.

I wonder what the South would have done if a Democrat was the incumbent for the start of the Great Depression?

[Crumpets]

Have to imagine the Great Migration was one of the biggest factors in shaping these trends. Like, just compare these maps: