Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden) (user search)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden)  (Read 618 times)
oldtimer
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« on: March 30, 2023, 07:17:36 AM »


Yougov and Sienna for New York have a similarly interesting breakdown for favourables.
However always look at the average,and ignore the African American numbers (they always vote the same).

And here is a polling average that I compiled for Biden vs DeSantis, relative to the 2020 results.

Hispanics 47/41
College Whites 50/41
Non-College Whites 29/59

Compared with Trump, DeSantis does a bit better with Hispanics and College Whites and a bit worse with non-college Whites, about 2 points difference with each category.

On those demographic numbers I guess DeSantis trades Wisconsin, for Arizona and Georgia, but Pennsylvania would be too close even for me to call it on those numbers. Both would win Nevada.
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oldtimer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2023, 06:33:15 PM »


Man this is going to be a presidential election were there is probably (and somewhat justifiably) going to be a record low confidence across the board on the accuracy of polling

I think only the ones who were able to get 2022 correct should be looked at with high regards. Q-Pac has unfortunately been a mess for too long now to take seriously.
The national polling average was correct on the national numbers in the midterms, it was way off in terms of the states, so it predicted the Senate wrong but not the House.
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