Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden)
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +2 (vs. Trump), DeSantis +2 (vs. Biden)  (Read 590 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: March 29, 2023, 12:53:19 PM »

Biden 48%
Trump 46%

DeSantis 48%
Biden 46%

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3870

(DeSantis winning Indies by 20% and Trump winning them by 9% .... very REAL!)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2023, 01:24:21 PM »

I actually think Biden could lose independents in 2024 and still win reelection. Dubya and Obama also lost them in 2004 and 2012, respectively. Seems like indies are anti-incumbent regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican is in office.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2023, 02:20:11 PM »

I actually think Biden could lose independents in 2024 and still win reelection. Dubya and Obama also lost them in 2004 and 2012, respectively. Seems like indies are anti-incumbent regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican is in office.

Eh, DeSantis would probably make it competitive, but certainly not 20%. However, Trump winning by 9% is absurd. Democrats won them by 2 in 2022, and many Rs were basically a proxy for Trump. If anything, I imagine the worst case scenario for Biden is losing Indies by a few %, but given DeSantis/Trump policies, I don't see how anything close to 20% is realistic.
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2016
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2023, 04:08:10 PM »

Proven once again. Donald Trump is the only Candidate who can screw up the 2024 Election for Republicans.

Joe Biden is the most unpopular Democratic President over the last two decades. Clinton & Obama were more popular when they ran for Re-Election.
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2023, 04:14:36 PM »

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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2023, 04:37:05 PM »


Man this is going to be a presidential election were there is probably (and somewhat justifiably) going to be a record low confidence across the board on the accuracy of polling
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emailking
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2023, 11:24:19 PM »

Trump's not buying it.

Quote
Polls can be worse than the written word. The new Quinnipiac Poll that has me 2 points behind Biden is FAKE, because they didn’t sample nearly enough Republicans. These Polls are FAKE, just like most of the Media is FAKE. They all work together. We’re not going to let it be taken away again!
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oldtimer
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2023, 07:17:36 AM »


Yougov and Sienna for New York have a similarly interesting breakdown for favourables.
However always look at the average,and ignore the African American numbers (they always vote the same).

And here is a polling average that I compiled for Biden vs DeSantis, relative to the 2020 results.

Hispanics 47/41
College Whites 50/41
Non-College Whites 29/59

Compared with Trump, DeSantis does a bit better with Hispanics and College Whites and a bit worse with non-college Whites, about 2 points difference with each category.

On those demographic numbers I guess DeSantis trades Wisconsin, for Arizona and Georgia, but Pennsylvania would be too close even for me to call it on those numbers. Both would win Nevada.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2023, 10:41:07 AM »


Man this is going to be a presidential election were there is probably (and somewhat justifiably) going to be a record low confidence across the board on the accuracy of polling

I think only the ones who were able to get 2022 correct should be looked at with high regards. Q-Pac has unfortunately been a mess for too long now to take seriously.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2023, 12:38:17 PM »

Biden is polling just like OBAMA was in 2011)12 48/50 in the Rassy polls
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2023, 01:26:42 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2023, 01:30:38 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »


Yougov and Sienna for New York have a similarly interesting breakdown for favourables.
However always look at the average,and ignore the African American numbers (they always vote the same).

And here is a polling average that I compiled for Biden vs DeSantis, relative to the 2020 results.

Hispanics 47/41
College Whites 50/41
Non-College Whites 29/59

Compared with Trump, DeSantis does a bit better with Hispanics and College Whites and a bit worse with non-college Whites, about 2 points difference with each category.

On those demographic numbers I guess DeSantis trades Wisconsin, for Arizona and Georgia, but Pennsylvania would be too close even for me to call it on those numbers. Both would win Nevada.

DeSantis isn't winning the Nomination to Trump anyways

A poll taken with a Grain of salt 20 mnths before Eday lol the Blue wall is safe we won it in the 22 Midterm
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BG-NY
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2023, 01:31:20 PM »


Man this is going to be a presidential election were there is probably (and somewhat justifiably) going to be a record low confidence across the board on the accuracy of polling

I think only the ones who were able to get 2022 correct should be looked at with high regards. Q-Pac has unfortunately been a mess for too long now to take seriously.
Certain pollsters performed better in 2018/2022, others performed better in 2016/2020. I think there is a Trump-specific nonresponse.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2023, 06:33:15 PM »


Man this is going to be a presidential election were there is probably (and somewhat justifiably) going to be a record low confidence across the board on the accuracy of polling

I think only the ones who were able to get 2022 correct should be looked at with high regards. Q-Pac has unfortunately been a mess for too long now to take seriously.
The national polling average was correct on the national numbers in the midterms, it was way off in terms of the states, so it predicted the Senate wrong but not the House.
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