Empire State of Mind

[NewYorkExpress]

The 2014 midterms had produced a Republican wave, capitalizing on President Obama's sliding popularity, especially as the Benghazi investigation in the House reached its climax. This wave had led to Republicans capturing the United States Senate and expanding their majority in the House of Representatives by a significant margin, however, they did relatively poorly in Gubernatorial elections, net losing seats, as some of the ramifications of the 2010 midterms and Tea Party were first felt.

Senate

Republican Gains: AK, AR, CO, IA, LA, MI, NH, NC, SD, VA, WV

Democratic Gains: N/A

House of Representatives

Republican Gains: AZ-1, AZ-2, CA-3, CA-7, CA-24, CA-26, CA-52, GA-12, IL-10, IL-12, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-6, MA-6, MN-7, MN-8, NV-4, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NY-1, NY-3,NY-4, NY-18, NY-21, NY-24, NY-25, NC-7, OR-5, TX-23, UT-4, WV-3,

Democratic Gains:N/A

Governors

Republican Gains

Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island

Democratic Gains

Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Maine

[NewYorkExpress]

Most of the attention domestically towards the end of 2014 and at the beginning of 2015 was technically on Hillary Clinton. The former Senator and Secretary of State had promised a speedy decision on running for President in 2016.

In her favor in 2016 was the fact that the Democratic Party seemed likely to line up alongside her, unlike in 2008. Even President Obama, while he could not publicly endorse, told Hillary privately at a fundraiser for John Bel Edwards in Shreveport, that he would support her in the Democratic Primaries whatever he could (even if Joe Biden, his Vice President ran).

Working against her, however, was the fact that the House's Benghazi investigation had taken a toll on her favorables, there were rumblings about her (as well as her Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin) using an unsecured email server to discuss State Department business, including classified information, and there was rumors that Bill Clinton was having yet another affair.

As such, on December 27, 2014, Clinton announced she was not running for President in a statement delivered to the New York Times. In an interview with CNN's Dana Bash the next day, she said that it was "the hardest decision of her life", and that she would be proud to endorse "the best female candidate running", as it was "time to break the highest remaining glass ceiling in America".

Clinton's decision not to run left the Democratic field wide open, with several candidates openly considering campaigns, most notably Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Tammy Baldwin and Sherrod Brown.

Looming above all of them was the now expected candidacy of Joe Biden, who most observers thought would almost certainly jump in now that Hillary was out.

For Biden, it also wasn't that simple. With Hillary out, he had a clearer path to the nomination than before. However, Joe was aware of his own weaknesses, and he was aware Obama preferred Hillary to him,and might well endorse another candidate over him instead. In addition to this, Joe's son Beau the Attorney General of Delaware had been diagnosed with a brain tumor, which most medical scholars believed would eventually be fatal (he would die in May, 2015). Biden knew that this was his one remaining shot at the Presidency, but he couldn't bring himself to run. On December 31, 2014, Biden also took his name out of the running,citing personal reasons.

Over on the Republican side, while no candidates had announced, several candidates were seriously considering running, most notably Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.

Polling at this point on the Republican side generally saw Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House leading, with Bush, Christie and Mitt Romney following somewhat behind. In the early states, Ryan,Huckabee and Santorum were tieed in Iowa, Ryan led in Nevada, Romney led in New Hampshire,and Bush, Huckabee and Rubio were tied in South Carolina.

[NewYorkExpress]

Following the midterms, President Obama made two changes to his cabinet and other high-profile officials, announcing the departures of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, and UN Ambassador Samantha Power either resigned, or were forced to resign.

Power's resignation was sudden and had caught the administration by surprise when she announced it on November 18. Even more surprising, and somewhat shocking, both to the Administration and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was Power's decision to run for the United States Senate in Georgia, where she grew up (she had bought a home in Cobb County shortly after Election Day for residency purposes). Power would face Johnny Isakson if she won, assuming Isakson ran for reelection and won renomination.

Hagel on the other hand, had essentially been forced out due to differences with the Obama Administration, largely related to the ongoing battle with ISIS. He at least toyed with the idea of running for President in 2016 (as either a Republican or Independent), or for Governor of Nebraska in 2018, or even for Senate in 2018 (in either case he would be facing an incumbent, Pete Ricketts in the Governor's race, Deb Fischer in the Senate race). While he made no decisions at this point, it was clear he was at least seriously considering a 2016 Presidential campaign.

Obama quickly moved to nominate a replacement for Hagel, choosing to nominate former Senator Jim Webb to serve as Secretary of Defense. Webb, a decorated Marine Corps Veteran, and former Secretary of the Navy, was confirmed easily, 73-19, on March 9, 2015.

The Replacement for Power meanwhile, ran into difficulty, as one Republican (Tom Cotton) said after being sworn in that he would place a hold on any nominee until Obama and Biden resigned (he said the same about Webb as Secretary of Defense, but the Majority Leader,Mitch McConnell, simply scheduled the vote for a week that Cotton was not in Washington, choosing not to honor that hold). Ultimately, Cotton was talked off of his hold by his fellow Arkansas Senator, John Boozman, once was Obama's nominee was revealed, when it became clear that the nominee in question was largely unobjectionable to the majority of the GOP caucus.

That nominee was former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman Jr. Huntsman, who was nominated in early February, drew rave reviews from the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, as well as most Senators, and ultimately was confirmed, 89-7 on April 6, 2015 (with only Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Gardner, Rand Paul and Tammy Baldwin voting against his confirmation).