What percent of the Hispanic vote does Biden win in 2024 vs Trump?

[SaneDemocrat]

Is it a different answer with Desantis

[BG-NY]

Doesn’t matter.

White College 35%
White Non-College 32%
Blacks 13%
Hispanic 13%
Asian/Other 7%

A 10% improvement in Hispanics is offset by a 3.5% decrease in the white non-college vote.

[SaneDemocrat]

Doesn’t matter.

White College 35%
White Non-College 32%
Blacks 13%
Hispanic 13%
Asian/Other 7%

A 10% improvement in Hispanics is offset by a 3.5% decrease in the white non-college vote.

Interesting

[Agafin]

Biden wins 59/40 against Trump, 54/45 against Desantis.

[BG-NY]

Biden wins 59/40 against Trump, 54/45 against Desantis.

DeSantis polls worse than Trump with minorities. What’s the basis for this?

[TDAS04]

Wow, I’m the only one who voted 67% or more.  Didn’t Biden get 66% in 2020?  I think he’ll do slightly better.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'll go 65%. I don't think there will be much movement in any direction

[SaneDemocrat]

Biden wins 59/40 against Trump, 54/45 against Desantis.

I think the Desantis number is close to accurate

[Spectator]

Wow, I’m the only one who voted 67% or more.  Didn’t Biden get 66% in 2020?  I think he’ll do slightly better.

I voted 67-69 too. Hispanics are the one group I can see swinging either way. Historically they’ve swung towards the incumbent.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Wow, I’m the only one who voted 67% or more.  Didn’t Biden get 66% in 2020?  I think he’ll do slightly better.

Catalist had 63% with Latinos. Voted 59-61% because I don’t think Florida and Metro NYC swings/trends in 2022 were a one-off even though some reversion is likely.

[oldtimer]

If the opinion polls are correct, then somewhere in the high 50's.

[oldtimer]

Biden wins 59/40 against Trump, 54/45 against Desantis.

DeSantis polls worse than Trump with minorities. What’s the basis for this?

Here is the picture of the polling average of Hispanics so far in detail and long term, compared with the 2020 polling average:

Trump vs Biden

Oct.21 Biden -12.5 Trump +7
Jan.22 Biden -11 Trump+8
Feb.22 Biden -12 Trump+8
Sept.22 Biden -10.5 Trump +7
Oct.22 Biden -9.5 Trump +6
Nov.22 Biden -9.5 Trump +7
Apr.23 (very few polls so far)
          Biden -8.5 Trump +7.5

DeSantis vs Biden

Feb.23 Biden -10.5 DeSantis+8.5
Mar.23 Biden -8 DeSantis+6

You can see the gradual consolidation of the Biden vote vs a flat picture for either Trump or DeSantis.

A similar picture for the White College and Non-College vote, but with way smaller gains for Republicans.
And DeSantis doing 2 points better with College Whites, but 2 point worse with Non-College Whites than Trump.

[Radicalneo]

62%

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

[Radicalneo]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Relative to 2020 or overall?

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Relative to 2020 or overall?

Overall, though I think Biden will improve with Hispanics relative to 2020, and there won't be much decline among black voters for him.

I think Biden beats 85% among both groups, offset by a sharp decline among White men (again).

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

I suppose it's always meant that to some people.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

I suppose it's always meant that to some people.

I'm sorry....but how on earth do you come to the conclusion that Biden will do better with the Hispanic vote than the black vote?  Meaning no offense...but it's absolutely absurd.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

I suppose it's always meant that to some people.

I'm sorry....but how on earth do you come to the conclusion that Biden will do better with the Hispanic vote than the black vote?  Meaning no offense...but it's absolutely absurd.

Black voters liked affirmative action, and fairly or not, they are going to blame Biden for it being gone.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

I suppose it's always meant that to some people.

I'm sorry....but how on earth do you come to the conclusion that Biden will do better with the Hispanic vote than the black vote?  Meaning no offense...but it's absolutely absurd.

Black voters liked affirmative action, and fairly or not, they are going to blame Biden for it being gone.

No, they wont. Most black people know it was the Supreme Court that overturned AA and most of them are aware how the court got its current line up.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Hot Take: Biden does worse with the black vote than he does with the Hispanic Vote.

Does hot take mean bad take now?

I suppose it's always meant that to some people.

I'm sorry....but how on earth do you come to the conclusion that Biden will do better with the Hispanic vote than the black vote?  Meaning no offense...but it's absolutely absurd.

Black voters as a whole will definitely continue swinging and trending R as they have in prior cycles. But I have oceanfront property in Kansas to sell to anyone who thinks Latinos will hit 80% for Biden and/or Biden somehow won’t get 80% of Black voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we are still in a Great Recession from the Pandemic Rs conceded AZ, CA. NM. CO AND NV DUE TO NOT SUPPORT IMMIGRATION REFORM



Just like blue avatars including Redban thinks Rs are gonna win and they concede 90% of the blk vote, when Hillary lost there was no Pandemic and there wasn't any VBM, Rs haven't won a single Eday since 20 that VBM why because VBM have lots of Provisions ballots


So when you see Trump up by 2 in a Poll it doesn't matter because it's a 1 yr before Eday and it's MOE and VBM have Provisions ballots

We get so many users comments on Premise having Trump ahead by 2, LOL ITS MOE, there was a poll that had Biden up 10 it's an EC college Eday not a Popular vote

I am confident we are gonna get next yr a 52/48 D S and 232DH we don't know how many EC votes because there is split voting but OH, NC and TX and AK are vulnerable


Edays are futuristic, I am not certain on FL because it has a Cuban Embargo

In an 80/70M vote turnout in 20 not a 62/60M vote Turnout we got in 22 obviously more Rs turned out in 22 but we still won the PVI

[The Mikado]

Picked 62-64. Something like 63-35 seems reasonable.

[TheReckoning]

Hispanics have a strong pro-incumbent bias. 70%+ for Biden seems reasonable.