ASB WI: If Biden/Harris died and McCarthy became POTUS, how would the Primary be affected?

[FloridaMan1845]

Title

[President Johnson]

Very, very big if, but it would cause a major backlash since McCarthy would attempt to dismantle Biden's policies and overreach instead of serving as a caretaker. Back in the 1970s when this was a discussion after Agnew resigned and Nixon was scandal-plagued with Watergate, then Democratic speaker Carl Albert said he'd step aside in case Nixon falls before a vice president was inaugurated or appoint a Republican after the voters entrusted a Republican with the presidency in the previous election. Needless to say that McCarthy wouldn't do so.

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

[Del Tachi]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

She's a very popular swing state Governor who has governed unapologetically liberal instead of trying the swing state compromise tactics of many moderate Democrats and was almost literally murdered for it. I don't know if I'm as high on her as some others are, but she is undoubtedly qualified and her bona fides are impressive.

[President Johnson]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group.  

She's a very popular swing state Governor who has governed unapologetically liberal instead of trying the swing state compromise tactics of many moderate Democrats and was almost literally murdered for it. I don't know if I'm as high on her as some others are, but she is undoubtedly qualified and her bona fides are impressive.

She's also charismatic and most likely acceptable to moderate and progressive Democrats alike. I think she'd do relatively well with both black primary voters and white Democratic women in primaries.

I hope Whitmer is the nominee in 2028 to succeed two-term Joe Biden with someone like Raphael Warnock, Wes Moore or Josh Shapiro as vice presidential candidate.

[Del Tachi]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

She's a very popular swing state Governor who has governed unapologetically liberal instead of trying the swing state compromise tactics of many moderate Democrats and was almost literally murdered for it. I don't know if I'm as high on her as some others are, but she is undoubtedly qualified and her bona fides are impressive.

A record of progressive achievement does not really seem to be what Democrat primary voters want.  The last two nominees have been Biden and Clinton, after all.  Unless you have terminal pundit brain, running a national campaign on reversing RTW and being the object for an FBI entrapment operation does not really seem like a winning formula.

That is to say nothing of how little appeal she has with the most important Democratic primary bloc:  Southern Blacks, a demographic Biden is actively rewarding with an even more envious position in the Democrat's primary calendar.  Assuming 2028 is an open contest, I'm starting to struggle to see how the nominee isn't going to be Raphael Warnock.       

[Ferguson97]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Unlike Harris and Warren, Whitmer is very charismatic and likable, and is basically a generic Democrat ideologically.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I believe the OP was referring to the GOP primary. I doubt Trump would step aside even if McCarthy became the incumbent.

[Agonized-Statism]

If we're that far down the line of succession, whatever happened to do that is the issue in US politics for at least the next election cycle.

[Lief 🗽]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Whitmer is very good at winning elections. All the evidence suggested that Harris and Warren were mediocre, at best, at it. Democratic primary voters primarily value electability.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't know, but I'm sure the GOP will try to make this happen.

[SWE]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

She's a very popular swing state Governor who has governed unapologetically liberal instead of trying the swing state compromise tactics of many moderate Democrats and was almost literally murdered for it. I don't know if I'm as high on her as some others are, but she is undoubtedly qualified and her bona fides are impressive.

A record of progressive achievement does not really seem to be what Democrat primary voters want.  The last two nominees have been Biden and Clinton, after all.  Unless you have terminal pundit brain, running a national campaign on reversing RTW and being the object for an FBI entrapment operation does not really seem like a winning formula.

That is to say nothing of how little appeal she has with the most important Democratic primary bloc:  Southern Blacks, a demographic Biden is actively rewarding with an even more envious position in the Democrat's primary calendar.  Assuming 2028 is an open contest, I'm starting to struggle to see how the nominee isn't going to be Raphael Warnock.

The last two Democratic nominees were the most famous names in the field. There's little comparison for what a Democratic primary would look like absent a former VP or equivalent figure who has been a household name for several years who the primary ends up revolving around - only time that's happened in the 21st century was 2004. Whitmer would probably have no way of standing out in a primary like 2016 or 2020, but in a field where everyone's just a random governor or senator who most voters are hearing about with fresh ears? Very easy to imagine her record making her the first choice of organized labor, which is a massive leg up, and being from Michigan is automatically going to make a lot of voters take her more seriously. I wouldn't peg anyone's odds in a wide open primary like this as very high, but I think she'd almost certainly rise to the rank of one of the 4 or 5 candidates who ends up being worth taking seriously, and at that point it comes down to how well her campaign is run and how the national mood at the time receives it, both of which are completely unknowable now. Warnock I put on the similar tier of who will likely be a serious candidate, but being so confident in one guy that you have a hard time seeing not them win is something you should know better to be weary about having posted on a site about election predictions for so long. It's never that easy!

[Sir Mohamed]

I believe the OP was referring to the GOP primary. I doubt Trump would step aside even if McCarthy became the incumbent.

McCarthy is Trump's lapdog, so obviously he'd step aside for Trump. Perhaps try to appoint him as VP so that he [Trump] can immediately take over the WH again.

[FloridaMan1845]

I don't know, but I'm sure the GOP will try to make this happen.

Every accusation is a confession.

[Del Tachi]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Very many qualified women ran for president in 2020, and all of them underperformed in the primary.  So what does that say about your party?  LOL

[Sir Mohamed]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group.  

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Very many qualified women ran for president in 2020, and all of them underperformed in the primary.  So what does that say about your party?  LOL

And the previous nominee who was the first woman ever nominated by a major party was who? And who did the party nominate for VP in 2020? And what about the gender gap of elected House members?

[Ferguson97]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Very many qualified women ran for president in 2020, and all of them underperformed in the primary.  So what does that say about your party?  LOL

...you are aware that Democrats literally nominated a woman for president in 2016, right?

[Del Tachi]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Very many qualified women ran for president in 2020, and all of them underperformed in the primary.  So what does that say about your party?  LOL

...you are aware that Democrats literally nominated a woman for president in 2016, right?

Are you aware that Hillary Clinton struggled greatly to win an open primary she had been teed up to win?  Relative to expectations, she underperformed.  This was also true of every woman who ran in 2020.  Why do you think this is? 

[emailking]

Relative to expectations, she underperformed.  This was also true of every woman who ran in 2020. 

You expected Gabbard to do better than she did?

[Ferguson97]

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

You and very many other Democrats seem high on Whitmer.  But who exactly is her base in the Democratic primary?  She seems to combine the worse aspects of Kamala Harris and Liz Warren in being an uninspiring, wonky progressive with limited character/identity appeal to any specific group. 

Just say you don't like women, it'd be so much quicker.

Very many qualified women ran for president in 2020, and all of them underperformed in the primary.  So what does that say about your party?  LOL

...you are aware that Democrats literally nominated a woman for president in 2016, right?

Are you aware that Hillary Clinton struggled greatly to win an open primary she had been teed up to win?  Relative to expectations, she underperformed.  This was also true of every woman who ran in 2020.  Why do you think this is? 

Clinton struggled because she was the victim of a 20-year smear campaign and because some found her to be insufficiently progressive. Many also rejected the perception that she was being coronated.

The most qualified candidate won in 2020. I don't really know what you think you're implying.

And hey just checking, how many women has the GOP nominated for president?

[FloridaMan1845]

Y’all are really having a woke-off in here.

[GoTfan]

Y’all are really having a woke-off in here.

That word has been used so much that it has no meaning anymore.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Y’all are really having a woke-off in here.

Silence, troll.

[FloridaMan1845]

Y’all are really having a woke-off in here.

Silence, troll.

Have I said anything untrue?

[Coldstream]

Very, very big if, but it would cause a major backlash since McCarthy would attempt to dismantle Biden's policies and overreach instead of serving as a caretaker. Back in the 1970s when this was a discussion after Agnew resigned and Nixon was scandal-plagued with Watergate, then Democratic speaker Carl Albert said he'd step aside in case Nixon falls before a vice president was inaugurated or appoint a Republican after the voters entrusted a Republican with the presidency in the previous election. Needless to say that McCarthy wouldn't do so.

I think there would be a wide open field of Democratic candidates, but not nearly as big as 2020. I think Gretchen Whitmer would be good money to bet on.

Albert actually did all he could not to become President, by confirming Ford & Rockefeller swiftly, partly because it’d have been seen by some as a coup. Perhaps a more interesting question is if Harris died and there was a chance of impeaching Biden, would McCarthy try to let a new be sworn in or go for removal and making himself President.