MA-Sen 2024: Warren officially running again

[MillennialModerate]

Michelle Wu and Ayanna Presley are going to be the next two senators from MA and I am close to certain about that prediction. The only question is who will replace Warren and who will replace Markey.

Michelle Wu and Ayanna Presley are going to be the next two senators from MA and I am close to certain about that prediction. The only question is who will replace Warren and who will replace Markey.

My guess is Presley replaces Markey in 2026, and Wu replaces Warren in 2030.

Uh, don’t count out JK3, Auchincloss, or Moulton

I am absolutely counting all three of them out.

You shouldn't. Maybe Moulton because as much as I like him the guy is kind of a stiff.

JK3 has worked hard to reach out to the left side of the party since our state embarrassed itself in 2020, So while a victory for him isn't guaranteed like it used to be for a Kennedy - I don't think you'd see a total rejection from the left side of the party like you did in 2020.

I found it interesting that Markey attended Ethel Kennedys (Hyannisport) funeral on Monday (Not sure if he was at the Washington one)

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

JK3 needs to go to a state office and show he wants to do the "small work" to help his state. He doesn't have a natural constituency right now outside of one that is aging out and any statewide federal or executive election is going to be a primary bloodbath.

[Stranger in a strange land]

After she beat incumbent Scott Brown by 7.55 points and Geoff Diehl by 24.17 points, I have no idea why Warren is treating John Deaton as if he is a serious threat to her reelection prospects this year! The way she advertises on FB, she talks as if she is worried she could lose to Deaton. Mitch McConnell is targeting me!! He will stop at nothing to help my Republican opponent win this election!! Send contributions at once!! [Those are not direct quotes.] I guess all politicians advertise that way, though.

(BTW, I just saw a picture of Deaton on the Wikipedia article about this election, and boy does he strongly resemble my brother, Blaine, albeit about 15 years younger. Deaton is actually 8 years younger, but he looks younger than he is.)

Her result against Diehl in 2018 was an underperformance for a Dem incumbent senator running in a safe blue state in a D Wave year. Two years later in 2020, Ed Markey beat his opponent by 33 points in a neutral year.

[MillennialModerate]

JK3 needs to go to a state office and show he wants to do the "small work" to help his state. He doesn't have a natural constituency right now outside of one that is aging out and any statewide federal or executive election is going to be a primary bloodbath.

Maybe not HIS STATE. But the definition of his work between 2021-2023 was "small work". He started a non-profit to boost Democratic organizing efforts in "No Go" or "DARK RED" areas of the country (Think the deep South outside of GA, Missouri etc)

I think it is ironic that for years people said you could run a zoo animal named Kennedy and he would get elected in a landslide. But (while that is still DEFINETLY true at the state level) in a Democratic primary its something that is used AGAINST HIM. Which is just crazy and gives legitimacy to the Bill Maher and Ana Kasparians take that the left has gotten a little ridiculous (a fact I mostly agree with but think should take a big backseat considering the right has become a borderline treasonous cult)

[Harlow]

After she beat incumbent Scott Brown by 7.55 points and Geoff Diehl by 24.17 points, I have no idea why Warren is treating John Deaton as if he is a serious threat to her reelection prospects this year! The way she advertises on FB, she talks as if she is worried she could lose to Deaton. Mitch McConnell is targeting me!! He will stop at nothing to help my Republican opponent win this election!! Send contributions at once!! [Those are not direct quotes.] I guess all politicians advertise that way, though.

(BTW, I just saw a picture of Deaton on the Wikipedia article about this election, and boy does he strongly resemble my brother, Blaine, albeit about 15 years younger. Deaton is actually 8 years younger, but he looks younger than he is.)

I was thinking the same thing. And as much as I commend her for debating - because it is the right thing to do. I hardly think a Republican in a similar position would do the same. I was surprised there even is a debate. The guy is a joke canidate.

I mean Diehl I understand because he was somewhat of a serious canidate, but this guy?

I think the thing about Elizabeth Warren is that she's always going to campaign aggressively. It's just her style. I was also surprised by how much she was going after him during the debate, but I think part of it was to match his energy and not come off as feeble by comparison (I'm sure counteracting people's gender bias probably plays into this somewhat).

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

After she beat incumbent Scott Brown by 7.55 points and Geoff Diehl by 24.17 points, I have no idea why Warren is treating John Deaton as if he is a serious threat to her reelection prospects this year! The way she advertises on FB, she talks as if she is worried she could lose to Deaton. Mitch McConnell is targeting me!! He will stop at nothing to help my Republican opponent win this election!! Send contributions at once!! [Those are not direct quotes.] I guess all politicians advertise that way, though.

(BTW, I just saw a picture of Deaton on the Wikipedia article about this election, and boy does he strongly resemble my brother, Blaine, albeit about 15 years younger. Deaton is actually 8 years younger, but he looks younger than he is.)

I was thinking the same thing. And as much as I commend her for debating - because it is the right thing to do. I hardly think a Republican in a similar position would do the same. I was surprised there even is a debate. The guy is a joke canidate.

I mean Diehl I understand because he was somewhat of a serious canidate, but this guy?

I think the thing about Elizabeth Warren is that she's always going to campaign aggressively. It's just her style. I was also surprised by how much she was going after him during the debate, but I think part of it was to match his energy and not come off as feeble by comparison (I'm sure counteracting people's gender bias probably plays into this somewhat).

There is also these thing to be said about feeling like you ought to earn your place. Yea she’s probably going to win easy but I imagine people like feeling as their senator isn’t just complacent

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Good for Warren on not running an invisible campaign or taking things for granted. Even in the Providence media market I'm seeing some ads for her (since Bristol County gets RI news stations). I still think she loses at least one county if not more though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good for Warren on not running an invisible campaign or taking things for granted. Even in the Providence media market I'm seeing some ads for her (since Bristol County gets RI news stations). I still think she loses at least one county if not more though.

Which County(ies) do you think she loses - at face value Bristol seems like the most likely suspect but the County has some downballot lag that seems to favor Dems.

[Ye We Can]

Good for Warren on not running an invisible campaign or taking things for granted. Even in the Providence media market I'm seeing some ads for her (since Bristol County gets RI news stations). I still think she loses at least one county if not more though.

Which County(ies) do you think she loses - at face value Bristol seems like the most likely suspect but the County has some downballot lag that seems to favor Dems.

She lost Plymouth last time.

[Harlow]

Good for Warren on not running an invisible campaign or taking things for granted. Even in the Providence media market I'm seeing some ads for her (since Bristol County gets RI news stations). I still think she loses at least one county if not more though.

Which County(ies) do you think she loses - at face value Bristol seems like the most likely suspect but the County has some downballot lag that seems to favor Dems.

She lost Plymouth last time.

That’s really only because Diehl had a hometown advantage there as a state rep. Plymouth County has been trending D in other statewide elections (2020 Senate & Pres, 2022 Gov), especially the coastal towns. There doesn’t seem to be a region of the state that inherently would favor Deaton to the same extent.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Good for Warren on not running an invisible campaign or taking things for granted. Even in the Providence media market I'm seeing some ads for her (since Bristol County gets RI news stations). I still think she loses at least one county if not more though.

Which County(ies) do you think she loses - at face value Bristol seems like the most likely suspect but the County has some downballot lag that seems to favor Dems.

She comes close to losing Plymouth and Worcester, and outright loses Bristol

[MarkD]

After she beat incumbent Scott Brown by 7.55 points and Geoff Diehl by 24.17 points, I have no idea why Warren is treating John Deaton as if he is a serious threat to her reelection prospects this year! The way she advertises on FB, she talks as if she is worried she could lose to Deaton. Mitch McConnell is targeting me!! He will stop at nothing to help my Republican opponent win this election!! Send contributions at once!! [Those are not direct quotes.] I guess all politicians advertise that way, though.

(BTW, I just saw a picture of Deaton on the Wikipedia article about this election, and boy does he strongly resemble my brother, Blaine, albeit about 15 years younger. Deaton is actually 8 years younger, but he looks younger than he is.)

I was thinking the same thing. And as much as I commend her for debating - because it is the right thing to do. I hardly think a Republican in a similar position would do the same. I was surprised there even is a debate. The guy is a joke canidate.

I mean Diehl I understand because he was somewhat of a serious canidate, but this guy?

I think the thing about Elizabeth Warren is that she's always going to campaign aggressively. It's just her style. I was also surprised by how much she was going after him during the debate, but I think part of it was to match his energy and not come off as feeble by comparison (I'm sure counteracting people's gender bias probably plays into this somewhat).

Maybe she can't forgive herself for having been a Republican in the past, and ever since she's had to aggressively attack them in order to cleanse herself. I can readily relate to that; it's very much like the conversion I've undergone regarding judicial activism.

[MarkD]

I've broken down the Warren-Deaton race for the 9 respective congressional districts. Warren won all 9 of them, but it did come unusually close in the 9th District, given that Deaton won so much of Plymouth County. There were no third-party candidates on the ballot, so all of the votes for other than Warren and Deaton were for just a small number of write-in votes, less than 0.2%.

1st - 370,935 – 207,928/ 162,471/ 536 – 56.06%/43.80%/0.14%
2nd - 383,486 – 224,375/ 158,504/ 607 – 58.51%/41.33%/0.16%
3rd - 343,886 – 198,384/ 144,931/ 571 – 57.69%/42.14%/0.17%
4th - 399,116 – 222,697/ 175,634/ 785 – 55.80%/44.00%/0.20%
5th - 367,646 – 256,223/ 110,689/ 734 – 69.69%/30.11%/0.20%
6th - 426,235 – 240,906/ 184,765/ 564 – 56.52%/43.35%/0.13%
7th - 272,574 – 223,502/ 48,129/ 943 – 82.00%/17.66%/0.34%
8th - 387,154 – 230,312/ 155,961/ 881 – 59.49%/40.28%/0.23%
9th - 448,831 – 229,418/ 218,856/ 557 – 51.11%/48.76%/0.12%

[Roll Roons]

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

[Talleyrand]

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

The "elasticity" and Warren's underperforming tendencies would be canceled out by the fact that she's a well-known incumbent. Her floor is probably not much lower than the 53% she won in 2012. Probably would have ended up as a 1996 Kerry-Weld redux.

[Compuzled_One]

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

Likely pushes it to mid single digits. Would've likely won had Biden stayed in.

[CentristRepublican]

Also unsurprisingly, quite a bit of downballot lag in certain communities.

For example, Warren did about 5-6 points worse than Harris statewide, yet outran Harris by 5 points in Fall River, where she won by 3 points even as Harris lost by 2.

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

Is it possible that with Baker we see some Rs vote third party / write in / not vote a la Rauner in 2018? Iirc his unpopularity with the MAGA base was part of the reason he stepped down in 2022. Something like that could potentially cut into his vote share and it's something that prob didn't apply to Hogan since Hogan was def somewhat more right-wing than Baker.

Like for example I don't see Baker winning the primary with nearly as much ease as Hogan. Perhaps because NRSC would view the race as less winnable than MD's open seat and thus be less interested in trying to clear the field for him.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Also unsurprisingly, quite a bit of downballot lag in certain communities.

For example, Warren did about 5-6 points worse than Harris statewide, yet outran Harris by 5 points in Fall River, where she won by 3 points even as Harris lost by 2.

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

Is it possible that with Baker we see some Rs vote third party / write in / not vote a la Rauner in 2018? Iirc his unpopularity with the MAGA base was part of the reason he stepped down in 2022. Something like that could potentially cut into his vote share and it's something that prob didn't apply to Hogan since Hogan was def somewhat more right-wing than Baker.

Like for example I don't see Baker winning the primary with nearly as much ease as Hogan. Perhaps because NRSC would view the race as less winnable than MD's open seat and thus be less interested in trying to clear the field for him.

Downballot lag is always fun to look at in MA, which has a lot of very disparate communities trending different ways.

Warren also outran Harris by like 25 points in Lawrence. But in most other places outside the Gateway Cities and some far western rurals, she was the same chronic underperformer as always. And even in the places where she ran ahead of Harris, that was less Warren's strength as it was Trump's.

[CentristRepublican]

Also unsurprisingly, quite a bit of downballot lag in certain communities.

For example, Warren did about 5-6 points worse than Harris statewide, yet outran Harris by 5 points in Fall River, where she won by 3 points even as Harris lost by 2.

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

Is it possible that with Baker we see some Rs vote third party / write in / not vote a la Rauner in 2018? Iirc his unpopularity with the MAGA base was part of the reason he stepped down in 2022. Something like that could potentially cut into his vote share and it's something that prob didn't apply to Hogan since Hogan was def somewhat more right-wing than Baker.

Like for example I don't see Baker winning the primary with nearly as much ease as Hogan. Perhaps because NRSC would view the race as less winnable than MD's open seat and thus be less interested in trying to clear the field for him.

Downballot lag is always fun to look at in MA, which has a lot of very disparate communities trending different ways.

Warren also outran Harris by like 25 points in Lawrence. But in most other places outside the Gateway Cities and some far western rurals, she was the same chronic underperformer as always. And even in the places where she ran ahead of Harris, that was less Warren's strength as it was Trump's.

How come? (I'd guess that it's her hometown except Ik she's originally from Oklahoma.)

Also agree with your point about communities in Mass. --- I like that MA in particular shows its votes by town rather than just county, since the many, often counterbalancing, trends get obscured by the county toplines (MA seems like a boring, all-blue state when one sees the county map - but looking at the town map tells a whole nother story, and one much more fascinating than "Trump won small towns").

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Also unsurprisingly, quite a bit of downballot lag in certain communities.

For example, Warren did about 5-6 points worse than Harris statewide, yet outran Harris by 5 points in Fall River, where she won by 3 points even as Harris lost by 2.

Given that Hogan only lost by 11, really makes me wonder how Baker would have done considering that it’s a much more elastic state and Warren is a known underperformer. He probably doesn’t win, but it gives you pause.

Is it possible that with Baker we see some Rs vote third party / write in / not vote a la Rauner in 2018? Iirc his unpopularity with the MAGA base was part of the reason he stepped down in 2022. Something like that could potentially cut into his vote share and it's something that prob didn't apply to Hogan since Hogan was def somewhat more right-wing than Baker.

Like for example I don't see Baker winning the primary with nearly as much ease as Hogan. Perhaps because NRSC would view the race as less winnable than MD's open seat and thus be less interested in trying to clear the field for him.

Downballot lag is always fun to look at in MA, which has a lot of very disparate communities trending different ways.

Warren also outran Harris by like 25 points in Lawrence. But in most other places outside the Gateway Cities and some far western rurals, she was the same chronic underperformer as always. And even in the places where she ran ahead of Harris, that was less Warren's strength as it was Trump's.

How come? (I'd guess that it's her hometown except Ik she's originally from Oklahoma.)

Also agree with your point about communities in Mass. --- I like that MA in particular shows its votes by town rather than just county, since the many, often counterbalancing, trends get obscured by the county toplines (MA seems like a boring, all-blue state when one sees the county map - but looking at the town map tells a whole nother story, and one much more fascinating than "Trump won small towns").

Lawrence is majority Dominican.