The future of the US Dollar

[American2020]

What will be the future of the US Dollar ? Discuss.

https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1640003690638524418

https://twitter.com/FareedZakaria/status/1640058728752840707

https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1639804446346706944

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 2 feels marginally more likely than Option 1, but it is up in the air at the moment.
China's economic ascendancy is not necessarily over.

[American2020]

Perceptions

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1643247952457023493

Realities

Smitarani Tripathy, Social Media Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Most of the influencers are concerned that many countries have already signaled to ditch the US dollar for international trade to foster their economic relationship, which may devalue the greenback. On the other side, a few influencers opined that the process of de-dollarization is lengthy and will not be negative for the price of the US dollar.”

Richard Turrin, Fintech Consultant

“Hong Kong’s Bridge CBDC transfer system is the centerpiece of #China’s de-dollarization plans! De-dollarization is not the elimination of USD, just reduction.”

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital

“I will say it again even though most wont believe me. The process of dedollarization is not a negative for price of USD. The process of dedollarization will create chaos that will push USD higher not lower. What comes on other side is anyones guess. But it wont come peacefully.

Mahemi, Co-founder of Traderade

“De-dollarization is a trend that will take decades, not months.”

Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets

“To anyone who was not trading in 2004-2006 or 2011 or 201& … this dedollarization bullsh**t shows up every now and then. Don’t worry—it’s pure engagement bait, mostly from people who know better. I’ve linked articles from 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 and 2018, but I could find you one from every year since China entered the WTO. It’s called King Dollar for a reason.”

Anas Alhajji, Keynote Speaker and Energy Expert

“If more countries use the Chinese yuan, What will happen to its value? – What will happen to Chinese exports then? – They will not let rise, how will the US react to currency manipulation? – They will not let rise, it will be pegged indirectly to the US dollar! – What will happen when the Right wins future elections? It means the decision is political! Why will companies follow? #China #Brazil”

Zero Hedge, Fund Manager

“Saudi Arabia moving to settle trade in Chinese Yuan, restoring ties with Iran, abandoning the US petrol dollar signals the beginning of the end of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. This is the start of the run on the bank of the USA…and US Dollar hyperinflation.”

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/investing-abroad-de-dollarization-discussions-on-twitter-reddit-surge-600-compared-to-the-previous-three-months-3031508/

https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent/status/1641404626078425096

https://www.trustnodes.com/2023/03/30/is-dedollarization-happening

[Meclazine for Israel]

The US dollar will continue to be super strong.

Unless the USA has an economic problem like too much "National Debt" as an example.

[Del Tachi]

The hegemony of the USD will continue.

[oldtimer]

As long as Arabs sell their oil in dollars it's fine.

[Ontario Tory]

The USD is the currency used in 90% of FX transactions, so suggesting that China and Brazil no longer using it will lead to de-dollarization is premature. The USD has been declining in terms of its share of foreign exchange reserves, but it's still the most dominant currency in foreign exchange reserves as well (58.3%), so it being replaced by another currency is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Note that as of 2022, the second most common reserve currency in the world is the Euro at 20.47%.  The Chinese renminbi is a tiny percentage of the world's reserve currencies (2.69%). For those who think decreased use of the dollar is necessarily a win for the US' geopolitical adversaries, I have a waterfront property in Arizona to sell you.

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212x.htm

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Short- and medium-term, the Dollar will still remain King. Long-term, would not be surprised if other currencies challenge the Dollar, but unless the U.S. commits economic suicide, the Dollar will still be the strongest among many.

Many countries would like to see an alternative to the USD, absolutely, but the problem is, which countries want to become the new global reserve currency? Europe and China don't because they don't want to give up their manufacturing base, and even then, there are still disadvantages to the Euro and Yuan compared to the dollar. And every other country is not anywhere in a position to make that challenge.

Finally, the reason why the U.S. Dollar will continue to be the dominant global reserve currency is simply because the U.S. has a large, growing, competitive, and innovative economy with strong institutions. People WANT to invest in the USA and the USD, contrary to what some online weirdos believe about the U.S. forcing everyone at gunpoint to accept it (ignoring that the US Dollar was rapidly rising in strength and attractiveness well before 1939 or before the Petrodollar became a thing).

For the U.S. Dollar to be replaced, someone else has to step up and accept the responsibilities of being the global reserve currency, and that means also accepting the very real costs and not just the benefits. So far, not seeing any takers, despite all the complaining about the USD.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could there be a revival of Keynes' Bancor?

[Torie]

Glorious, but always an attractive nuisance for the kooks to speculate about.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/14/opinion/dollar-reserve-currency.html

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Over the last decade the RMB has doubled in total reserve currency %. From 1% to 2%. At this rate Xitler and co will get to dominant currency status by (checks notes) roughly 2500!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am ever skeptical about the latest thing that the financial press is over hyping.

[Torie]

This just came on my email from Bloomberg:

President Xi Jinping is supercharging efforts to rival the most powerful currency in the world.

China is pushing through deals linked to the yuan as it seeks to circumvent US attempts to weaponize the dollar. Agreements to transact some payments in the Chinese currency from Saudi Arabia, Brazil and even France have been signed in recent months.

Sanctions on Russia — an acute reminder of the greenback’s unique dominance in the global economy — have been a potent catalyst in expanding the use of an alternative.


Laos and Bangladesh are enamored with the Yuan. The end is near.

[All Along The Watchtower]

As long as Arabs sell their oil in dollars it's fine.

What?!