Could (and will) 2024 be the Democrats' year in TX?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it's unlikely, especially since the abortion law will curb internal migration by Democrats to Texas, and may make many Democrats leave Texas.

That might happen to Georgia if they try hard enough to kick liberal proffesions out.

But my theory is that voting behaviour depends on living standards which are determined by:

Weather
Population density
Income

In short, a harsh place makes harsh people.

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.
But when they died, California reverted to liberal again.

My reasoning is that mild coastal California weather+high population density+high incomes= super liberal population.

That would also explain Florida Man, because Florida has a tropical-subtropical climate that can drive you mad sometimes.

If my theory is correct then Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, Virginia will remain Liberal for a generation, and then revert to their prior characters.

There are gonna be Hurricane but not an IAN that was a tsunami like Katrina was, TX, FL and NC will be hit with a Hurricane because of climate change

It's a 303 and we will see if Beshear, Presley and Wilson can win in R 22 but Rubio and DeWine aren't running in 24 like in 24, Biden and Harris are back on ballot and DeWine and DeSantis are TL

It's 80/75 or 65)60 M Ds because white female vote 55/45 D even in FL Golden Girls were Feminist Bea Arthur, Betty White and Minorities vote D and combine the two with liberal white men is 50/47 D

It's called wave insurance outside 303 we don't need bur 270 to win Prez but we need it for Congress we are trying to pick up MO and FL or Moand TX because they are blk Populated and MT or WV can go R because they are white populated 2 percent blk in WV

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be careful with people saying that Ds have a better chance in TX at the Sen level than at the Pres level.

There are a lot of areas of TX that have down ballot lag at the federal level; Beto in 2018 for instance underran Biden in basically every left-shifting suburb with the exception of suburbs around Austin. Beto in 2018 kept it close in large part because he did slightly less bad in rural parts of the state than normal Ds, and in part cause Ds had decent turnout in heavily minority parts of Houston and Dallas, but much of that will likely be eroded 6 years later in a Pres cycle regardless of who the candidate is.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

With Trump they might on a good night, the Biden campaign probably triages Texas if DeSantis is the nominee because it would be too costly to run a campaign there along with DeSantis probably being a  better fit than Trump for Texas.

[Xing]

Could: Yes
Will: Probably not

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still don't think so. It might swing to Biden, but it has some ways to go before flipping.

[Хahar 🤔]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

[oldtimer]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

It's true.

California elected it's first conservative governor in 1966 and it's last in 1994.

All the others where either liberal republicans like Earl Warren (of the famous Warren court) or liberal Democrats.

[Хahar 🤔]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

It's true.

California elected it's first conservative governor in 1966 and it's last in 1994.

All the others where either liberal republicans like Earl Warren (of the famous Warren court) or liberal Democrats.

Again, no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Allred isn't running end of story, he learned the lesson of Tim Ryan, that if you go for a wave insurance seat and D's don't have the Filibuster proof Trifecta already you can lose and D's are gonna be the majority party anyways, he can challenge Cornyn if D's have a Filibuster proof Trifecta in 26 anyways

We don't have a top name candidate in TX we don't either in FL but FL will be close this time

If Ryan would of won he would have ran for TX S but Vance won the Maga Candidate

[oldtimer]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

It's true.

California elected it's first conservative governor in 1966 and it's last in 1994.

All the others where either liberal republicans like Earl Warren (of the famous Warren court) or liberal Democrats.

Again, no.

Tell me of a conservative California Governor before Reagan was elected.
Or a conservative California Governor after Nixon died.

[Хahar 🤔]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

It's true.

California elected it's first conservative governor in 1966 and it's last in 1994.

All the others where either liberal republicans like Earl Warren (of the famous Warren court) or liberal Democrats.

Again, no.

Tell me of a conservative California Governor before Reagan was elected.
Or a conservative California Governor after Nixon died.

Frank Merriam, Friend Richardson, I'm not going to do further research for you than that

[oldtimer]

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.

This is not remotely true.

It's true.

California elected it's first conservative governor in 1966 and it's last in 1994.

All the others where either liberal republicans like Earl Warren (of the famous Warren court) or liberal Democrats.

Again, no.

Tell me of a conservative California Governor before Reagan was elected.
Or a conservative California Governor after Nixon died.

Frank Merriam, Friend Richardson, I'm not going to do further research for you than that

Does Frank Merriam know that he was a conservative or his voters?
Friend Richardson was even a member of the Progressive Party.

Both of them where middle of the road milk-toast liberals or at least their voters thought so.

Your definition of conservative is anyone to the right of Bernie Sanders or even some to the left of him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nope, it's too rural.

We've been through this before, the cities of Texas have never outvoted it's rural areas politically because Texas has plenty of arable land, so the population growth of rural counties has kept up with urban counties.

Something not true in the cramped west coast or the desert states.

As for Georgia, it doesn't have many non-Africam Am. minorities, it's electorate is 40% black and has a larger upper class than other southern states.
So a shift in the upper class vote matters more there, look at the oversized influence of Cobb county.

It's really not. Most Texans live in a county that Biden actually won. It's just that Democrats get embarrassingly low margins out of urban places compared to what their counterparts in other states get. In fact, only 12 Congressional districts (out of 38) can be made out of the quintessential super Republican counties. Biden won the remainder urban part of the state (El Paso, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Harris, Travis, Fort Bend, Bexar, Williamson, Hays, Guadalupe, Comal, and the remainder south Texas) by a combined margin of only 1 million votes, as you can see below, or only a 56-42 victory. Democrats have a lot of room to grow that margin compared to Republicans being essentially maxed out in the 12 districts I mapped out below. If you think about it, Democrats should be able to net much more than 1 million votes out of those urban/suburban counties. I expect in 2024 that Biden will. Just probably not enough to erase Trump's 600,000 vote lead. Cruz could lose, though.

With the exception of Austin, Ds have really 2 big problem across TX metro areas:

1. Turnout in heavily D Black and Hispanic communities is awful, like some of the worst in the Country level awful. It is possible that in some Hispanic communities, non-voters actually lean R, but on net, high Hispanic turnout in greater Dallas and Houston would be a good thing for Dems.

2. The outer-ring of white suburbs tend to be insanely high turnout and ruby-red. This is most prominent in Houston with Montgomery County, which has shifted left but actually nets Rs more and more votes every cycle because of growth and it still gave Trump over 70% of the vote in 2020. Comal, Parker, and Galveston Counties are other huge R vote nets.

Finally, you have decent sixed communities like Odessa, Midland, Amarillo, and Lubbock that are extremely red, and in some cases have shifted right.




As you suggest though, rural Texas isn't enough for the GOP to hold onto Texas long term, they have to get solid margins in exurbs and smaller cities.

[Spectator]

Nope, it's too rural.

We've been through this before, the cities of Texas have never outvoted it's rural areas politically because Texas has plenty of arable land, so the population growth of rural counties has kept up with urban counties.

Something not true in the cramped west coast or the desert states.

As for Georgia, it doesn't have many non-Africam Am. minorities, it's electorate is 40% black and has a larger upper class than other southern states.
So a shift in the upper class vote matters more there, look at the oversized influence of Cobb county.

It's really not. Most Texans live in a county that Biden actually won. It's just that Democrats get embarrassingly low margins out of urban places compared to what their counterparts in other states get. In fact, only 12 Congressional districts (out of 38) can be made out of the quintessential super Republican counties. Biden won the remainder urban part of the state (El Paso, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Harris, Travis, Fort Bend, Bexar, Williamson, Hays, Guadalupe, Comal, and the remainder south Texas) by a combined margin of only 1 million votes, as you can see below, or only a 56-42 victory. Democrats have a lot of room to grow that margin compared to Republicans being essentially maxed out in the 12 districts I mapped out below. If you think about it, Democrats should be able to net much more than 1 million votes out of those urban/suburban counties. I expect in 2024 that Biden will. Just probably not enough to erase Trump's 600,000 vote lead. Cruz could lose, though.

With the exception of Austin, Ds have really 2 big problem across TX metro areas:

1. Turnout in heavily D Black and Hispanic communities is awful, like some of the worst in the Country level awful. It is possible that in some Hispanic communities, non-voters actually lean R, but on net, high Hispanic turnout in greater Dallas and Houston would be a good thing for Dems.

2. The outer-ring of white suburbs tend to be insanely high turnout and ruby-red. This is most prominent in Houston with Montgomery County, which has shifted left but actually nets Rs more and more votes every cycle because of growth and it still gave Trump over 70% of the vote in 2020. Comal, Parker, and Galveston Counties are other huge R vote nets.

Finally, you have decent sixed communities like Odessa, Midland, Amarillo, and Lubbock that are extremely red, and in some cases have shifted right.




As you suggest though, rural Texas isn't enough for the GOP to hold onto Texas long term, they have to get solid margins in exurbs and smaller cities.

Yeah, I am skeptical that the net gain in raw votes in places like Comal, Montgomery, and Guadalupe will be big enough to offset the inevitable D raw vote gains in places like the four big DFW counties, metro Austin, Bexar, and Harris/Fort Bend (and even Brazoria). Since, as you mention, these exurban counties are still swinging left, even if they are gaining raw R votes. It’s not sustainable long-term unless the trend is suddenly halted magically in the urban/suburban counties.

[John Dule]

With DeSantis as the nominee and Trump running a write-in campaign, anything is possible.

[Ferguson97]

With DeSantis as the nominee and Trump running a write-in campaign, anything is possible.

IIRC Texas is actually one of the few states that has sore loser laws for presidential elections.