Could (and will) 2024 be the Democrats' year in TX?

[sg0508]

I was college when CO and VA went GOP for the last time in a presidential election (2004). I remember there was a lot of commentary during Election Night that the Republicans had better watch themselves closely and their message going forward in those states as the demographical growth in both favored Democrats. Also and ironically in 2004, a ballot initiative failed, which would have allocated the congressional districts like in NE and ME, which in the long-term would have helped Republicans.

Fastforward to 2008 and the economic crash, it's been all downhill in both states since '04 at the top for the GOP.

AZ was another that the Republicans had to watch and finally lost (yes, they lost) in 2020.  Is TX next? That being said, with so many IT jobs being lost and the cost of living skyrocketing in Austin, leaving younger voters in financial ruin, that could curb the growth. That being said, similar to the aforementioned states, there does seem to be Democratic momentum in terms of growth.  

TX Democrats made some noise in 2020 and busted in 2022 by nominating Beto for governor against Abbott who should have been somewhat vulnerable.  Biden doesn't necessarily provide the young and vibrant personality like an Obama that could draw out the youth vote, but despite it all, could 2024 be "the year" for the Democrats to breakthrough in TX and carry the state?

If they do, you actually have to believe the Republicans in the short-term could be locked out of the White House as it would be near impossible for them to reach 270 without TX.

Thoughts?

[Spectator]

I do think it could be the year for them to break the statewide drought in the Senate race with the right candidate. I think Biden would come up just short to Trump though, maybe by 1-3 points.

[TodayJunior]

Not yet but they can get the statewide margin to about 2%. It’s about a cycle and half to two cycles behind Arizona.

[OSR stands with Israel]

TX isn’t really comparable to 2004 VA though. 2004 VA voted around 5.5 points more republican than the nation and CO was only 1.5 points while TX is still 10 points more republican than the nation . Also other than 2016 TX has only trended around a point or two democratic every cycle so outside 2008 style waves , it’s probably not gonna be won by the Democrats this decade .

So I’d say the better comparison is NC and not VA/CO .

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's not out of the question depending on what the national margin is - look at Obama flipping NC in 2008 - but I wouldn't bet on it happening. Certainly not this early in the cycle, anyway.

Senate race is more likely to go Dem than the presidential race, if Dems get an ideal candidate.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I do think it could be the year for them to break the statewide drought in the Senate race with the right candidate. I think Biden would come up just short to Trump though, maybe by 1-3 points.

I think you're right to emphasize the Senate race.  A lot of Texan swing voters might feel ambivalent about choosing between Biden and whoever the Republican presidential nominee is, but there will be no such ambivalence about another chance to vote against Ted Cruz (especially if Dems run a decent candidate like Colin Allred).  I think Cruz on the ballot will be a not insignificant boost for Biden, and yeah, I think 2024 is finally the year Democrats win Texas's electoral votes.

[FloridaMan1845]

Depends.

[Mr. Smith]

TX isn’t really comparable to 2004 VA though. 2004 VA voted around 5.5 points more republican than the nation and CO was only 1.5 points while TX is still 10 points more republican than the nation . Also other than 2016 TX has only trended around a point or two democratic every cycle so outside 2008 style waves , it’s probably not gonna be won by the Democrats this decade .

So I’d say the better comparison is NC and not VA/CO .

Arizona was a hard 44% ceiling from '92-2016 for Dems....then it flipped.

I don't think it's quite doable for 2024, but I wouldn't count it out either, especially if Trump is truly routed.

[OSR stands with Israel]

TX isn’t really comparable to 2004 VA though. 2004 VA voted around 5.5 points more republican than the nation and CO was only 1.5 points while TX is still 10 points more republican than the nation . Also other than 2016 TX has only trended around a point or two democratic every cycle so outside 2008 style waves , it’s probably not gonna be won by the Democrats this decade .

So I’d say the better comparison is NC and not VA/CO .

Arizona was a hard 44% ceiling from '92-2016 for Dems....then it flipped.

I don't think it's quite doable for 2024, but I wouldn't count it out either, especially if Trump is truly routed.

Arizona only voted 5 points more Republican than the nation in 2016 and it dropped to around 4 in 2020 so it really didn’t trend that much democratic from 2016 to 2020. 

I’d say for Texas to flip it probably requires the Democrats to win the NPV by around 8

[Spectator]

TX isn’t really comparable to 2004 VA though. 2004 VA voted around 5.5 points more republican than the nation and CO was only 1.5 points while TX is still 10 points more republican than the nation . Also other than 2016 TX has only trended around a point or two democratic every cycle so outside 2008 style waves , it’s probably not gonna be won by the Democrats this decade .

So I’d say the better comparison is NC and not VA/CO .

Arizona was a hard 44% ceiling from '92-2016 for Dems....then it flipped.

I don't think it's quite doable for 2024, but I wouldn't count it out either, especially if Trump is truly routed.

Arizona only voted 5 points more Republican than the nation in 2016 and it dropped to around 4 in 2020 so it really didn’t trend that much democratic from 2016 to 2020. 

I’d say for Texas to flip it probably requires the Democrats to win the NPV by around 8

Shifts can happen suddenly on a whim. Texas voted in 2020 about where Georgia did in 2016. People said it was too soon then.

[OSR stands with Israel]

TX isn’t really comparable to 2004 VA though. 2004 VA voted around 5.5 points more republican than the nation and CO was only 1.5 points while TX is still 10 points more republican than the nation . Also other than 2016 TX has only trended around a point or two democratic every cycle so outside 2008 style waves , it’s probably not gonna be won by the Democrats this decade .

So I’d say the better comparison is NC and not VA/CO .

Arizona was a hard 44% ceiling from '92-2016 for Dems....then it flipped.

I don't think it's quite doable for 2024, but I wouldn't count it out either, especially if Trump is truly routed.

Arizona only voted 5 points more Republican than the nation in 2016 and it dropped to around 4 in 2020 so it really didn’t trend that much democratic from 2016 to 2020. 

I’d say for Texas to flip it probably requires the Democrats to win the NPV by around 8

Shifts can happen suddenly on a whim. Texas voted in 2020 about where Georgia did in 2016. People said it was too soon then.

Georgia isn’t really  comparable to Texas though. Demographic changes in Georgia unlike in Texas almost unanimously benefit the democrats .

Also no Georgia voted around 7.2 points more Republican than the nation in 2016 while Texas was still over 10 in 2020 so no GA didn’t vote around where Texas did .

[Spectator]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

[oldtimer]

Nope, it's too rural.

We've been through this before, the cities of Texas have never outvoted it's rural areas politically because Texas has plenty of arable land, so the population growth of rural counties has kept up with urban counties.

Something not true in the cramped west coast or the desert states.

As for Georgia, it doesn't have many non-Africam Am. minorities, it's electorate is 40% black and has a larger upper class than other southern states.
So a shift in the upper class vote matters more there, look at the oversized influence of Cobb county.

[RFK 2024]

The gains in suburbs would have to outweigh the losses in rural hispanic areas, but I think the numbers are there.  The big problem with 2024 being the year is that it (probably) won't be a wave like 2008.  Biden is an unpopular incumbent, and that will drag Dem support down if anything.

[Spectator]

Nope, it's too rural.

We've been through this before, the cities of Texas have never outvoted it's rural areas politically because Texas has plenty of arable land, so the population growth of rural counties has kept up with urban counties.

Something not true in the cramped west coast or the desert states.

As for Georgia, it doesn't have many non-Africam Am. minorities, it's electorate is 40% black and has a larger upper class than other southern states.
So a shift in the upper class vote matters more there, look at the oversized influence of Cobb county.

It's really not. Most Texans live in a county that Biden actually won. It's just that Democrats get embarrassingly low margins out of urban places compared to what their counterparts in other states get. In fact, only 12 Congressional districts (out of 38) can be made out of the quintessential super Republican counties. Biden won the remainder urban part of the state (El Paso, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Harris, Travis, Fort Bend, Bexar, Williamson, Hays, Guadalupe, Comal, and the remainder south Texas) by a combined margin of only 1 million votes, as you can see below, or only a 56-42 victory. Democrats have a lot of room to grow that margin compared to Republicans being essentially maxed out in the 12 districts I mapped out below. If you think about it, Democrats should be able to net much more than 1 million votes out of those urban/suburban counties. I expect in 2024 that Biden will. Just probably not enough to erase Trump's 600,000 vote lead. Cruz could lose, though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

[Spectator]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

[Spectator]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

Trump in 2016 by 2% in the popular vote, compared to Romney's 4%. He was able to flip states that were much tougher on paper than Texas was now. Michigan was Obama + 9.5%. Wisconsin was Obama + 7%. Pennsylvania was Obama + 5.4%. Iowa was Obama + 5.8%. If you add Ohio to the list, he swung a lot of these by double digits, despite not doing much better than Romney in the popular vote.

It really wouldn't take much for Texas to flip. All it would take is the urban counties to start voting like they do in the other states.

You are so married to this idea of it being impossible to ever flip, it's really weird. Stranger things have happened.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

Trump in 2016 by 2% in the popular vote, compared to Romney's 4%. He was able to flip states that were much tougher on paper than Texas was now. Michigan was Obama + 9.5%. Wisconsin was Obama + 7%. Pennsylvania was Obama + 5.4%. Iowa was Obama + 5.8%. If you add Ohio to the list, he swung a lot of these by double digits, despite not doing much better than Romney in the popular vote.

It really wouldn't take much for Texas to flip. All it would take is the urban counties to start voting like they do in the other states.

You are so married to this idea of it being impossible to ever flip, it's really weird. Stranger things have happened.

I didnt say its impossible for it to flip , I just said it wont be winnable outside an 2008 style Dem win this decade. I think beginning in 2032 it will be what FL was from 1996-2016 and that is a marquee swing state that either party can win but the GOP must win.

Also the GOP changed massively from 2012 to 2016(at least when it comes to on surface and with presidential nominees) and its why you saw many states change drastically in that period. The parties are not gonna change that massively between now and 2024.

[oldtimer]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

Trump in 2016 by 2% in the popular vote, compared to Romney's 4%. He was able to flip states that were much tougher on paper than Texas was now. Michigan was Obama + 9.5%. Wisconsin was Obama + 7%. Pennsylvania was Obama + 5.4%. Iowa was Obama + 5.8%. If you add Ohio to the list, he swung a lot of these by double digits, despite not doing much better than Romney in the popular vote.

It really wouldn't take much for Texas to flip. All it would take is the urban counties to start voting like they do in the other states.

You are so married to this idea of it being impossible to ever flip, it's really weird. Stranger things have happened.

You got the wrong definition of urban for Texas if you want to compare it with Georgia.

It's population density is so different that Texas suburban areas are as dence as Ohio rural areas, 100 per sqr.mile.

The equivalent for Georgia would be Barton or Walton county, 40 miles from the city center of Atlanta.

Practically in Texas suburbs are max 5 miles wide compared to 15-20 for Atlanta, if you think 1000 per sqr.mile is a suburb.

And that's the key, Atlanta is just a giant suburb about 80 miles wide, with only Phoenix being it's closest rival.

So obviously the party of the upper class (currently Democrats) are going to do well in states that are just a single giant suburb (something that will pose a problem when Democrats try to ban cars, they don't have good public transport).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

Trump in 2016 by 2% in the popular vote, compared to Romney's 4%. He was able to flip states that were much tougher on paper than Texas was now. Michigan was Obama + 9.5%. Wisconsin was Obama + 7%. Pennsylvania was Obama + 5.4%. Iowa was Obama + 5.8%. If you add Ohio to the list, he swung a lot of these by double digits, despite not doing much better than Romney in the popular vote.

It really wouldn't take much for Texas to flip. All it would take is the urban counties to start voting like they do in the other states.

You are so married to this idea of it being impossible to ever flip, it's really weird. Stranger things have happened.

You got the wrong definition of urban for Texas if you want to compare it with Georgia.

It's population density is so different that Texas suburban areas are as dence as Ohio rural areas, 100 per sqr.mile.

The equivalent for Georgia would be Barton or Walton county, 40 miles from the city center of Atlanta.

Practically in Texas suburbs are max 5 miles wide compared to 15-20 for Atlanta, if you think 1000 per sqr.mile is a suburb.

And that's the key, Atlanta is just a giant suburb about 80 miles wide, with only Phoenix being it's closest rival.

So obviously the party of the upper class (currently Democrats) are going to do well in states that are just a single giant suburb.

I was born in Denton County, and have lived in Collin and Dallas counties also. For most of my life I've lived in places that are similar to what you see in King of the Hill.
I would certainly agree that things in Texas are spread out. "Everything is big in Texas" is a phrase you see heard here in this state.
Texas today, in a somewhat loose sense, is like what California was for most of the 20th century, until they ran out of easy space and the orange groves that gave OC its name were paved over. Except there's no mountain ranges to place limits.
Particularly if they get high-speed rail lines built, and fast transit more generally used (we already have DART, or Dallas Area Rapid Transit), the sprawl might even at one point spill into Oklahoma.  Collin County is already basically a third downtown...

[SnowLabrador]

I think it's unlikely, especially since the abortion law will curb internal migration by Democrats to Texas, and may make many Democrats leave Texas.

[Spectator]

Georgia was Trump + 5.2% in 2016

Texas was Trump + 5.5% in 2020

No one is saying it will flip, but you seem to think it would take an act of god for it to ever flip. Democrats won much redder states that Texas these past 4 years.

Do you not know the difference between margin and PVI

Do you know how to use punctuation? PVI is a stupid metric to use. Uniform swing isn't a thing.

Yes but the fact is that other than 2016 Texas hasn’t trended more than one or two points democratic in a Cycle so unless Democrats can win the NPV by 8 they aren’t winning Texas.

Also you really didn’t respond to the fact of how the demographic shifts in GA benefit the democrats far more than they do in Texas

Trump in 2016 by 2% in the popular vote, compared to Romney's 4%. He was able to flip states that were much tougher on paper than Texas was now. Michigan was Obama + 9.5%. Wisconsin was Obama + 7%. Pennsylvania was Obama + 5.4%. Iowa was Obama + 5.8%. If you add Ohio to the list, he swung a lot of these by double digits, despite not doing much better than Romney in the popular vote.

It really wouldn't take much for Texas to flip. All it would take is the urban counties to start voting like they do in the other states.

You are so married to this idea of it being impossible to ever flip, it's really weird. Stranger things have happened.

I didnt say its impossible for it to flip , I just said it wont be winnable outside an 2008 style Dem win this decade. I think beginning in 2032 it will be what FL was from 1996-2016 and that is a marquee swing state that either party can win but the GOP must win.

Also the GOP changed massively from 2012 to 2016(at least when it comes to on surface and with presidential nominees) and its why you saw many states change drastically in that period. The parties are not gonna change that massively between now and 2024.

The counter trends you’re probably talking about in Texas (Hispanics?) is largely in places that are losing population. The long-term outlook for the Texas GOP isn’t great. I have my doubts that the GOP will be able to hold the margins down in places like metro DFW, Austin-San Antonio corridor, and Houston as these places add voters. The only positive areas of growth I would say are happening around the Midland area. You might say the projected population growth is concentrated in Republican suburban counties around DFW m, Houston, and San Antonio, but I think it’s pretty clear based on the past couple cycles that the new voters in those counties are making those counties closer. Collin and Denton counties are on the verge of flipping in 2024, and if they don’t then, they almost definitely will the next time a Democrat wins the presidency.

https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2019/20190128_PopProjectionsBrief.pdf

[oldtimer]

I think it's unlikely, especially since the abortion law will curb internal migration by Democrats to Texas, and may make many Democrats leave Texas.

That might happen to Georgia if they try hard enough to kick liberal proffesions out.

But my theory is that voting behaviour depends on living standards which are determined by:

Weather
Population density
Income

In short, a harsh place makes harsh people.

For example, California was always liberal until dust bowl migrants (bible belt ones, like Nixon and Reagan) came in the 1930's, when they settled in and became active in local matters as time went by California became conservative.
But when they died, California reverted to liberal again.

My reasoning is that mild coastal California weather+high population density+high incomes= super liberal population.

That would also explain Florida Man, because Florida has a tropical-subtropical climate that can drive you mad sometimes.

If my theory is correct then Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, Virginia will remain Liberal for a generation, and then revert to their prior characters.