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BushKerry04
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« on: March 24, 2023, 07:54:11 PM »

So this timeline is going to be a bit different than others. I am going to do a timeline as if I am running for President. Some names you'll recognize, and others (including mine) are made up. This could read like a novel, and I plan on taking my time with this so sorry in advance for that. Enjoy!



My background
My name is Peter Cohen, and I am preparing to seek the 2040 Democratic nomination for President. I was born on March 5, 1989, to Joel and Barbara Cohen. My mother spent 30 years as a public school teacher, and my father served as Vice President for Operations for my family’s commercial insurance brokerage before his retirement. The company was started by by paternal Grandfather and a business partner at a storefront in Westchester, Pennsylvania in 1950. Today, the firm employs 545 people in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. I grew up in Westchester and went on to earn a B.A. in Marketing from Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. In 2011, I joined my family’s business as a Marketing Associate before being promoted to Regional Director of Marketing & Sales in 2015 and Assistant Vice President for Marketing & Sales Operations in 2020. In 2019, I married Rachel Green, a Professor of Economics at West Chester University. Originally from Lansing, Michigan, Rachel graduated with a B.A. in economics from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D in economics from the University of Delaware. She moved to West Chester in 2017, and we met at a Democratic Party event in 2018. Together, we purchased a modest 1,800-square-foot home for $385,000 about a mile from my childhood home in West Chester. I also got involved in politics, serving on the board of my local Democratic Party organization. I then served two terms on the Chester County Board of Commissioners, where I championed conservation, infrastructure improvements, and holding the line on taxes. In 2024, I won the election to the Pennsylvania State Senate. There, I was a strong ally of Governor Josh Shapiro and championed tax incentives for job creation, green energy, and pro-choice judicial nominations. In January 2029, Senator Bob Casey Jr. resigned his senate seat to become Secretary of Energy in the administration of President Gretchen Whitmer. Governor Shapiro appointed a placeholder interim Senator, and I was urged by moderates in the Democratic Party to run in the special election for U.S. Senate. I declared my candidacy, won 35% of the primary vote in a nine-candidate field, and was elected in November 2029 by a 52%-47% margin over my Republican opponent. The following year, I was unopposed in the Democratic primary. In the general election, I won a full term by a 54%-44% margin. Six years later, I won re-election to the Senate by a 57%-42% margin, even as Republican JD Vance carried Pennsylvania by 15,000 votes in the presidential race. In the Senate, I became one of President Whitmer’s strongest allies, and sponsored many of the administration’s priorities including an economic package that tripled the earned income tax credit, established a new manufacturing jobs credit, expanded existing green energy tax credits while creating new ones, made record investments in economic development grants & job training, reauthorized and expanded funding for infrastructure projects, and the Paycheck Fairness Act. I also worked with the administration and my colleagues to codify a woman’s right to choose into federal law and expand Medicaid. During the administration of President JD Vance, I became a leading opponent of the President’s economic and enviornmental agendas, though I did work with the administration and Republicans on criminal justice reforms and increased funding for local law enforcement. I won a reputation as a moderate who could work with Republicans on some issues while being unmovable on civil rights, privacy, equal pay, the environment, and funding for infrastructure. I also took on the left wing of my own party at times, particularly on federal spending. Most observers describe me as a fiscally centrist social progressive.   
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2023, 08:07:47 PM »

2024-2036 election results

2024:
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D) 51%
Donald Trump/Elise Stefanik (R) 46%
Other 3%


2028:
Gretchen Whitmer/Susan Rice (D) 53%
Katie Britt/JD Vance (R) 46%
Other 2%


2032:
Gretchen Whitmer/Susan Rice (D) 54%
Greg Gianforte/Eric Schmitt (R) 44%
Other 2%


2036:
Andy Beshear/Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 50%
JD Vance/Ted Cruz (R) 49%

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BushKerry04
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2023, 08:14:20 PM »

Testing the waters
In all honesty, I never thought I would run for President. It was never an ambition of mine. I was prepared to support former Vice President Susan Rice or Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) for President, but by the summer of 2038 both announced they would not be candidates. In July 2038, several prominent Democrats in Washington D.C. looking for a strong general election candidate asked me if I would consider a presidential bid. After getting approval from my wife and our families, I decided to test the waters. I campaigned for Democrats in a dozen states in the 2038 midterms, and tested a fiscally moderate, socially progressive message. I also met with Democratic leaders in three early primary states: South Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire. In the fall of 2038, I met with donors and potential staff. In the election of 2038, Democrats won back control of the U.S. Senate two years after losing control, and they made gains in the house. In October, Democratic donors, including those who had supported my campaigns as well as President Whitmer’s campaigns in 2028 and 2032, formed a Political Action Commitee, Unite America Now, in support of my potential candidacy. One thing the Pac did was to conduct polling. As expected, I was not the front-runner for the nomination and my name I.D. was the fourth highest of the dozen candidates polled. What the poll did find, however, was that I polled best against President Vance. Over Thanksgiving, Rachel and I decided I’d run for President. 
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2023, 07:19:50 PM »

My team
By January 2039, I had a staff in place for my presidential campaign. My core team consists of:


Wife: Rachel Cohen
Hometown: Lansing, MI
Education: B.A., University of Michigan ‘10; PhD., University of Delaware ‘15
Prior Experience: Economics Professor, Westchester State University (2016-present); Campaign Manager, Petruccelli for Council (2015); President, Progressive Economic Policy Forum (2030-present)

Campaign Manager: Ying Lee
Hometown: Ann Arbor, MI
Education: B.A., University of Michigan ‘08; J.D., University of Michigan ‘11
Prior Experience: Campaign Associate, Progressive Strategy Group (2011-2015); Executive Director, Progress for Michigan PAC (2015-2024); Deputy Campaign Manager, Hillary Scholten for Congress (2024); Campaign Manager, Mikie Sherrill for Governor (2025); Campaign Manager, Josh Shapiro for Governor (2026); Political Director, Gretchen Whitmer for President (2027-2028); Deputy Director, White House Office of Political Affairs (2029-2031); Deputy Campaign Manager, Gretchen Whitmer for President (2031-2032); Issues Director, Democratic National Committee (2033-2038).

Communications Director: Amelia Rodriguez
Hometown: Maytown, PA 
Education: B.A., Franklin and Marshall College ‘11
Prior Experience: Marketing Associate, Cohen Insurance, Inc. (2011-2014); Sales Executive, Cohen Insurance, Inc. (2014-2029); Communications Director, Cohen for U.S. Senate (2029-2031); Communications Director, Senator Peter Cohen (2031-2033); District Director, Senator Peter Cohen (2033-2038).

Senior Adviser: Meghan Mitchell
Hometown: Gaffney, SC
Education: B.A., University of North Carolina - Charlotte ‘00; PhD., Georgetown University ‘05
Prior Experience: Professor of Political Science, Franklin & Marshall College (2005-2025); Chief Pollster, Democratic Victory Strategy Group (2025-2027); Vice President, Smart Strategic Consulting (2027-2031); Deputy Director of Communications, Whitmer for President (2031-2032); Director of Government Affairs, Lenox Energy (2033-2038).

Deputy Campaign Manager: Amir Gaines
Hometown: Dublin, OH
Education: B.A., Princeton University ‘10; J.D., University of Colorado ‘12
Prior Experience: Public Defender, Denver County (2012-2016); Attorney, Gaines, Esq. (2016-2025); Political Director, Colorado Democratic Party (2026-2027); Colorado Field Coordinator, Whitmer for President (2028); Executive Director, Colorado Democratic Party (2029-2031); Southwest Field Director, Whitmer for President (2031-2032); Campaign Director, ACLU of Ohio (2033-2038).

Chief of Staff: Nicole Giordano
Hometown: West Chester, PA 
Education: American University ‘20
Prior Experience: Research Assistant, House Democratic Caucus (2020-2024); Legislative Aide, Congresswoman Haley Stevens (2025-2028), Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2029-2034), Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2034-2038).

Political Director: Claire O’Rourke
Hometown: Tucker, GA
Education: B.A., Duke University ‘28
Prior Experience: Campaign Coordinator, Peter Cohen for U.S. Senate (2029-2031); Legislative Aide, Senator Peter Cohen (2032-2035); Field Director, Andy Beshear for President (2035-2036); Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Peter Cohen (2037-2038).

National Press Secretary: Navi Patel
Hometown: Kennett Square, PA
Education: B.A., Harvard University ‘10
Prior Experience: Communications Coordinator, Nielsen (2010-2014); Communications Director, Innovative Political Consulting (2015-2025); Media Strategist, Pennsylvania Democratic Party (2026-2031); Communications Director, Senator Peter Cohen (2032-2038).

Senior Spokesperson: Clark Stevens
Hometown: Milton, WI
Education: University of Chicago ‘14
Prior Experience: Media Associate, Sprint Communications (2014-2018); CEO, Stevens Communications (2019-2029); Director of Media Relations, Illinois Democratic Party (2030-2038).

Pollster: Nancy Rubenstein
Hometown: Jersey City, NJ
Education: B.A., Columbia University ‘20; J.D., Rutgers University ‘22
Prior Experience: Research Assistant, Peak Research Associates (2022-2024); Survey Coordinator, Peak Research Associates (2024-2027); CEO, Rubenstein Research (2027-present).
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2023, 06:35:56 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2023, 10:58:23 PM by BushKerry04 »

March 15, 2039: My announcement:
Joined on stage by my wife and parents as well as several elected officials, I declared my candidacy for President during a speech at Westchester University in my hometown of Westchester, Pennsylvania:

“Thank you, Rachel, for that wonderful introduction, I am honored and humbled to have your love and support, I love you. And I want to thank my parents for providing me with the guidance and values that have served me well throughout my life and helped me get to this moment. I want to thank all of the elected officials here today, thank you for your support and mentorship. I also want to thank longtime friends, supporters, and my Senate staff for being here today and for your inspiration, hard work, and energy. Friends, I am the proud product of  West Chester, Pennsylvania. I was raised here, worked here, and this is where my journey in public service began, on the county Board of Commissioners and later, the legislature. This community is welcoming, diverse, and a place where neighbors look out for each other. It was here where I learned the importance of community, volunteerism, friendship, and integrity. It was in this very spot a decade ago that I stood before you and declared my intention to run for the U.S. Senate. In that campaign, I was honored and humbled to have the support of you all here today, in addition to hard working women and men across Pennsylvania. In what was considered an uphill climb, we won. And here, in this diverse, perennial swing state, we won twice more. You see, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of America as a whole. This is the state where our democracy was formed. We have farms, factories, corporate headquarters, union halls, small towns, large cities, suburban communities, and people of all races, ethnicities, religions, sexual orientations, and political persuasions. Representing you in the United States Senate, listening to you, and being your voice and vote in Washington, has been a rewarding experience that I hope I’ve been worthy of. I’m proud of the work we’ve done to benefit Pennsylvania and the nation. Tax cuts for working Americans, new investments in clean energy, promoting economic development, and codifying a woman’s right to choose. Just four years ago, thanks to Democratic policies, unemployment was at a record low, we had the first budget surpluses in over three decades, the gender and racial pay gaps began to shrink, millions of Americans went from relying on food stamps to securing good paying jobs, and more people enrolled in higher education and vocational school than ever before. Today, because of the out of touch priorities and trickle down economic policies of this administration, our economy has entered a period of uncertainty. Unemployment, the budget deficit, and the cost of health insurance, clothing, and even food are up. Wages are stagnant. And business formation is down. All the while, this administration has gutted environmental protections, opposed expanding the school lunch program, frozen access to health insurance, and returned to the failed policies of the past on immigration. Faced with these realities, over the past several months, I have considered the possibility of seeking the Democratic nomination for President. And I’ve decided that after four years of a President who has led us down a path of deficits, deceit, and economic decline, we need leadership focused on helping us achieve our highest ideals so we can once again reach our full potential as a nation. So today, grateful for all this nation has provided me, well aware of the challenges we face, unyielding in my love of country, and with a desire to usher in a new era of freedom and equality in America, I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. It’s important for Americans to understand the vision and values of those who seek the highest office in the land and in the coming months, I’ll put forward detailed policy proposals as I travel the country and listen to folks. But I can tell you this, I know exactly where I want to lead this nation. I seek a day when the economy grows for every American, where communities that have been left behind for far too long prosper once again, and where we produce more here in America because of our world-class infrastructure, educated and diverse workforce, financially sound safety net, and commitment to fiscal responsibility. I seek a day when our society moves forward in addressing the injustices of the past, whether it be inequality of job opportunity, pay, entrepreneurship, housing, education, health care, criminal justice, or access to clean air and water. I seek a day when our society enjoys greater freedom, whether that’s the ability of workers to keep more of what they earn, people to feel secure in their communities, or defending a woman’s right to choose, voting righths, civil rights, and the rights of our LGBT brothers and sisters. So I ask you to join this movement to win, lead, govern, and move in a freer and more equitable direction. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America”
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2023, 08:55:27 PM »

March 15, 2039: My first interview as a candidate
WESTCHESTER, PA: At 8 p.m. EST, I joined MSNBC’s Kristen Welker for my first televised interview as an announced presidential hopeful. Here are some highlights:

Welker: Senator, why do you want to be President of the United States?
Cohen: Kristen, I think these past four years have been a detour to a more perfect union. This administration has returned to the failed policies of the past, and they’ve thrown our economy into recession as a result. I want to ensure our economy grows for everyone and not just the very wealthy, that we invest in our people in a fiscally sound manner, and that we make strides towards greater freedom and equality for all of our people. In the Senate, I’ve been a leader on cutting taxes for working families, economic development, protecting the environment, defending a woman’s right to choose, and voting rights. I think I have the experience and vision to not only win the general election but move America in a new direction.

Welker: Let me ask you about your path to the nomination. Presently, you are polling in single digits and are likely facing much better funded opponents. How do you break through in a field that could feature as many as two dozen candidates?
Cohen: well, I just got into the race this morning. My path to the nomination is going to be through good old fashioned retail politics; meeting with voters, touring Main Streetss, attending county fairs, and visiting a lot of VFw and Union halls. I also plan on hosting a lot of town hall meetings and going to places Democrats and politicians in general often don’t go to. My pitch to voters is going to be simple. If you believe in greater freedom and equality for every American, want to restore prosperity to the economy, and believe we need a nominee who can win, I’d love to have your vote.

Welker: A concern some progressives have about your candidacy is that you oppose single-payer health care, have criticized indexing the minimum wage to inflation as some progressives support, and you said you would under no circumstances back universal basic income. I know a lot of Democrats I spoke with like you and appreciate your work on reproductive freedom and the environment, but how can you win over the base of your party when you have taken some moderate stances? 
Cohen: One thing that I won’t do is pander for votes. I’ll always hear arguments made by those who disagree with me on an issue, but I won’t lie to people in order to get their vote. I support and have always supported universal healthcare for those who can’t afford private insurance. I also support policies to lower premiums for the middle class. But a single-payer program would force a huge tax increase on middle income Americans. I have voted for medicaid expansion, to raise the minimum wage, and I’ve led on tax cuts for working families. In fact, working people in this country got an average of $2,500 in tax relief thanks to efforts I got passed the Senate and onto the President’s desk. But I won’t lie, pander, or buy votes.
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2023, 07:48:05 PM »

March 17, 2039: Road trip
After declaring my candidacy for President, I took a four-day road trip. After speaking at campaign rallies in Harrisburg and Pittsburgh, I campaigned across Michigan. After beginning the journey with rallies in Lansing and Detriot, I held my first town hall meeting of the campaign in Mt. Clemens, Michigan. About 300 voters came out to hear from me and ask me questions. I received high marks for two exchanges I had with voters in Flint, Michigan:


Voter: Senator, for over 50 years, politicians have come to Michigan promising a better deal on trade, but this community continues to struggle decades after offshoring became a prevalent part of the American economy. Why should voters trust you when you have been a supporter of free trade?

Cohen: People should trust me based on my record, which I’d be happy to discuss but it’s not the answer you are looking for. I can’t stand here before you and say that free trade is going away. Flint and so many communities in this state as well as my own have suffered because politicians didn’t prepare you to compete in a global economy and have ignored you as globalization has led to outsourcing. I can’t tell you I am going to be able to bring those jobs back, even if we repealed every free trade agreement on the books no jobs would come back. What I can tell you is my economic program will create new opportunities here in Flint and across this country. Remember, four years ago Flint had the lowest rate of unemployment since the auto industry left. I want to not only get us back to that, but create even more new jobs, help you improve your schools, and address the injustices of the past.


Voter: Some of your opponents in the primary support universal health insurance coverage. You say that you believe health care is a right, yet you oppose Medicare for all and other similar proposals. How can we trust you to stand up for working people given your record on this issue?

Cohen: I absolutely believe that getting access to health care is a fundamental, natural right. No one in America should be denied the ability to see a doctor or seek medical care based on an inability to pay. Seven years ago, I helped author the Whitmer healthcare plan that expanded medicaid coverage, increased subsidies to help middle income folks afford insurance, and we incentivized states to cap premiums. As a result of our efforts, the number of Americans lacking health insurance fell to the lowest level in recorded history and premium increases fell by over 75%. The current administration froze medicaid expansion and incentives for capping premiums. As a result, over 7 million Americans today still lack health insurance. I want to expand medicaid to cover up to 200% of the federal poverty level, continue to expand subsidies for middle income folks, and change the health care business model to one that emphasizes outcomes instead of just paying for services. This is how we get to universal coverage and bring costs for private insurance to the rate of wage growth, or even lower. I’ll also say that I want to restore $17 billion in cuts this President made to funding for hospitals and women’s health clinics. You asked me why I oppose medicare for all, and the answer is I think we can expand access to insurance and lower costs without canceling private plans, displacing workers, and raising taxes on folks earning under $500,000.
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2023, 06:19:07 PM »

May 5, 2039: My economic program
ANN ARBOR, MI: During a speech at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, I put forth an economic program. The following are the pillars of the program:

1. Individual tax reform

1. Increases the earned income tax credit from $70 billion to $120 billion, phased in over four years
2. Lowers income taxes by 5% per year over eight years for those earning less than $170,000, amounting to a 40% reduction in income taxes for 90% of Americans.
3. Increases taxes on the wealthiest 2% of earners, bringing the top tax rate to 40%.
4. Caps the mortgage interest deduction at $550,000
5. Increases taxes on diesel fuel and tobacco
6. Aligns capital gains tax rates with that of ordinary income
7. Enacts a carbon tax, raising $1 trillion in a decade
8. Eliminates the gift exemption above $200,000

B. Create jobs, invest in America, and support veterans

1. Increases the pass-through tax deduction from 20% to 30% for businesses with earnings below $10 million, phased in over eight years
2. Increases the corporate tax rate from 21% to 25% and the minimum corporate tax rate from 15% to 23%. Fully taxes deferred foreign profits & offshore bank accounts.
3. Expands the manufacturing jobs credit and creates a new job creation tax credit
4. Creates a Main Street Revitalization Fund that incentivizes business formation, affordable housing, environmental stewardship, and business district improvement to jurisdictions with median income 10% or more below the national averages. Deposits $70 billion into the fund and dedicates 10% of corporate tax revenue to the fund annually.
5. Increases G.I. bill & VA funding and establishes new tax incentives to support veteran owned businesses
6. Reauthorizes and expands funding for existing infrastructure investments with a commitment to replacing all lead pipes, helping electric companies get to carbon neutrality within 8 years, replacing all city-owned diesel buses within a decade, and using proceeds from higher diesel taxes to improve roads & bridges.
7. Doubles the number of college & vocational school pell grants over four years, forgives medical school debt in exchange for volunteer hours, increases funding for K-12 special needs classrooms, and incentivizes underperforming districts to hire more teachers at higher pay.
8. Increases green energy tax credits, creates a new tax incentive for farmers to plant cover crops, expands tax credits to help homeowners retrofit their homes, bans off-shore drilling, increases the rate of growth of EPA funding by 25% over a decade, incentivizes states to conserve land and buy out homes in flood zones, and provides cities with grants to plant trees, and increases funding for public transit and environmental justice initiatives.
9. Increases legal immigration and creates a guest worker program 

C. Return to fiscal responsibility while keeping and expanding the social safety net

1. Uses proceeds from carbon tax & foreign profits collections to close the federal budget deficit and reduce the national debt by $1.4 trillion over a decade
2. Expands Medicaid to cover those earning up to 200% of the federal poverty level, increases Affordable Care Act subsidies, increases health care R&D spending, and increases funding for hospitals and community health clinics. 
3. Means-test social security, raise the retirement age by five years for white collar professions, abolish the payroll tax cap, and increase benefits for the poorest seniors
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2023, 08:27:20 PM »

The Summer of ‘39

The candidates:
Me - Senator Peter Cohen (D-PA)
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI)
Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA)
Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX)
Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-OH)
Former Secretary of Homeland Security Stephanie Murphy (D-FL)
Former Secretary of Health & Human Services Katie Hobbs (D-AZ)
Diplomat Joe Kennedy III (D-MA)
Businesswoman Lynn Jurich (D-CA)
Businesswoman Jane Frasier (D-NY)


June 15, 2039: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has become the front-runner to win the Democratic nomination for President. Gillibrand first sought the presidency in 2020, but withdrew after failing to gain traction. In the years since that campaign, she has taken a more leadership role in the Democratic Party. For the past decade, she has served as Chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee when our party controlled the Senate (2029-2037 and January 2039-present) and as a ranking member from 2037-2039. Gillibrand has also been a leader on veteran’s affairs, healthcare policy, and education.The centerpiece of her campaign this year is to expand paid medical leave, double funding for the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, fund universal pre-K, and invest in education at all levels. Polling generally shows Congressman Ro Khanna as Gillibrand’s strongest challenger. Khanna is running on the creation of a cap and trade program, universal health insurance coverage, public financing of all federal elections, indexing the federal minimum wage to inflation, and doubling affordable housing stock. The race for third place has become a contest between Senator Brian Schatz and I. The conventional wisdom is that I’m competing for votes with Gillibrand, while Schatz is competing with Khanna. Gillibrand and Khanna are able to run national campaigns. They have regional offices and higher name I.D. than anyone else in the field. Gillibrand’s strategy seems to be to lock up the nomination early. She’s putting extensive resources in South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada in particular. Khanna seems more focused on winning caucuses and delegates. He’s banking on a strong showing in Nevada to help propel him to wins in delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. Schatz is focusing his energy on New Hampshire, while I’m focused on a 3,2,1 strategy; top 3 in South Carolina, top 2 in New Hampshire & Nevada, and a convincing win in Michigan.
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2023, 10:51:04 AM »

Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-OH)
Why did Ayanna Pressley move to Ohio? Did she not succeed one of Warren or Market (deliberately misspelled)?
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2023, 08:14:39 PM »

Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-OH)
Why did Ayanna Pressley move to Ohio? Did she not succeed one of Warren or Market (deliberately misspelled)?

My mistake! I meant MA and no, I didn't purposely misspell.
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2023, 08:16:01 PM »

July 1, 2039: Poll finds Gillibrand ahead, Vance approval rating at 45%

National Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 23%
Ro Khanna 15%
Brian Schatz 8%
Peter Cohen 7%
Stephanie Murphy 4%
Chris Murphy 3%
Katie Hobbs 3%
Others 2% or less

Favorability Ratings
JD Vance: 45% favorable, 45% unfavorable
Kirsten Gillibrand: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable
Ro Khanna: 50% favorable, 43% unfavorable
Brian Schatz: 47% favorable, 30% unfavorable
Peter Cohen: 45% favorable, 33% unfavorable
Stephanie Murphy: 45% favorable, 32% unfavorable
Katie Hobbs: 42% favorable, 25% unfavorable

Vance Approval
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 44%

General Election Match-ups
Kristen Gillibrand 48% JD Vance 45%
Ro Khanna 47% JD Vance 47%
Brian Schatz 47% JD Vance 46%
Peter Cohen 48% JD Vance 44%
Stephanie Murphy 48% JD Vance 44%
Katie Hobbs 45% JD Vance 43%
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2023, 07:27:50 PM »

October 5, 2039: Social Policy Agenda
During an address at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, I put forth a social agenda:

"In the United States Senate, I've been a leader on equal pay for equal work, voting rights, and reproductive freedom for women. During the Whitmer administration, I'm proud to have worked with the President and my colleagues to make the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and Paycheck Fairness Act laws, codify a woman's right to choose into federal law, and strengthen the fair housing act. While these were significant accomplishments, we can always do more to ensure every American has equality under the law and the freedom to pursue their American dream. We can always do more to ensure everyone, regardless of their gender, race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, income, or ability is treated with respect. Let me be clear. The proposals I'll speak of today are not an exhaustive list of everything I hope to accomplish on social policy, we have a lot of work to do to correct the injustices of the past. But these proposals do speak to some of the important work ahead to ensure we have a more inclusive America for all."



My plan includes the following proposals:
1. Pass the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution
2. Equal Pay for equal work: Increase funding for enforcement of the Equal Pay Act of 1963 and the Paycheck Fairness Act of 2030, pass the Salary Transparency Act, and increase penalties for violations of equal pay law.
3. Enhance civil rights for all: Formally amend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to include members of the LGBT community, triples penalties for violating the Civil Rights Act of 1964, provide $20 billion each year in new funding for environmental justice initiatives, and provide grants to bring low or no-cost food to food deserts. 
4. Voting rights and fair maps for all: Incentivize states to create independent legislative and congressional redistricting commissions, make it easier for voters to challenge voter suppression in federal court by increasing staffing and eliminating filing fees for such cases, appoint a special Assistant Attorney General for voting rights, and require longer early voting periods for all federal elections.
5. Protect a woman’s right to choose: Appoint pro-choice justices, provide reproductive healthcare services and free contraception at all federally-funded health clinics, strengthen penalties for HIPPA violations, and bar states from banning interstate travel for reproductive health care.


November 10, 2039: A debate & a poll surge in South Carolina
In recent weeks, progressive Super PACs have been running ads against me, claiming I’m too moderate on education and taxes. My national poll numbers have remained steady since July, as I remain in a statistical tie for third place with Senator Schatz behind Senator Gillibrand and Congressman Khanna. However, I now am tied with Senator Gillibrand for the lead in Michigan. Following a debate on November 2nd, two polls showed movement in South Carolina. In the Gallup poll, it was Gillibrand 27%, Khanna 18%, Schatz 8%, Cohen 7% in early October. Following the debate, it shifted to Gillibrand 23% Khanna 15% Cohen 14% Scatz 10%. In a NBC/WSJ poll, Gillibrand led with 24% the week prior to the debate, with Khanna at 15%, Schatz at 9%, and Cohen at 8%. After the debate, it shifted to Gillibrand 20%, Khanna 14%, Cohen 14%, Schatz 9%. I had a few moments during the debate that went viral:

Moderator: Senator Cohen, some progressives have criticized you for taking what they describe as moderate stances on health care, education, and taxes. How do you respond to this criticism?

Cohen: This morning, 2.3 million of our fellow citizens woke up and didn’t have a job to go to that they had just three years ago. 7.2 million of our fellow citizens can’t see a Doctor this year because this administration froze medicaid expansion. In the wealthiest nation on the planet, 9 million of us are food insecure. And an estimated 17 million Americans are spending more than 30% of their incomes on shelter, with little left over for food and medicine. I am determined to help people here in South Carolina and across the country get back to work and rebuild the safety net that this administration has gutted. So my response is this. I have a sense of urgency in the policies I propose. My economic program doesn’t tax small businesses, it encourages them to hire our 2.3 million neighbors and pays for it by asking multi-national corporations to pay more. A single-payer healthcare system would take years to implement, my plan would be far quicker and would help those 7.2 million people get health insurance. And I have plans to help those in need with universal school lunches, record education funding, and incentives for local food sources and affordable housing stock. If you are looking for someone who over-promises and under-delivers, vote for the President. If you are looking for a leader with a record of results and practical policy proposals, I’d be honored to earn your vote.

Moderator: Senator Cohen, a progressive Super PAC has accused you of supporting half measures to improve education, citing your opposition to free four-year college and cited a vote in 2037 in which you were one of only ten Democrats to vote in favor of legislation that funded vouchers. How do you respond to this criticism?

Cohen: Education is key to helping people to feel a sense of purpose, understand the world, and succeed. I’ve been a strong supporter of special needs classrooms in K-12, community colleges, vocational training, and increasing teacher pay as a County Commissioner and in the United States Senate. I helped increase pell grants and funding for special needs classrooms in the Senate, I’ll build on that as President. I also believe we should incentivize higher teacher pay, make new investments in job training, and provide more aid to states so they can invest in public universities and vocational schooling. I oppose subsidizing free four-year college for the wealthiest amongst us, and I don’t believe we have the tax revenue to fund it to the best of our ability. So my goal is to improve our public schools and help students who come from working families afford college or vocational schooling. I have also said that I believe in inter-district school choice, but not universal vouchers. In 2037, a bipartisan bill was introduced that did increase federal funding of vouchers. It also increased funding for public education. Here in South Carolina, you have recieved $570 million that you otherwise wouldn’t have had that bill not passed. In Pennsylvania, we recieved $445 million. I voted in favor of that bill because despite it’s flaws, it provided an increase in funding for public education that was 30% higher than the increase the administration had originally proposed in their budget. 

Moderator: Senator, four of the five leading candidates in public opinion polls, including you, are legislators. All of you have somewhat similar voting records. So what differentiates you from your opponents in terms of your record?

Cohen: I’m not here to disparage anyone on this stage. Senator Gillibrand has been a leader on foreign policy issues and victim’s rights for a long time, Congressman Khanna has been a strong advocate for expanding access to healthcare, and Senator Schatz is passionate about defending civil liberties. In my case, I’ve been a leader on strengthening our economy for all, social justice, sustainability, and ensuring America leads. I am proud that as a freshman Senator, I was able to work closely with President Whitmer and her administration in helping to write legislation that expanded green energy incentives, delivered tax relief for working people and Main Street, and created the manufacturing job’s credit. I also successfully led efforts to expand community development grants and reauthorize infrastructure investments. As a result, the American people created 15 million jobs, unemployment fell to the lowest level in recent memory, the budget was balanced for four years, and wages grew at their fastet pace in 30 years. I’m also proud to have helped lead the efforts to get the John Lewis Voting Righs Act, Paycheck Fairness Act, and medicaid expansion through Congress. I also co-wrote landmark legislation codifying a woman’s right to choose into federal law and created the largest investment in environmental justice programs in history. I have a record of getting things done, and that’s why I’m confident in my ability to lead.


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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2023, 03:37:06 PM »

If the GOP was locked out of the White House for 16 years, what does SCOTUS look like?
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2023, 04:31:27 PM »

If the GOP was locked out of the White House for 16 years, what does SCOTUS look like?


Good question, I honestly didn't think of that lol.
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2023, 07:19:38 PM »

January 15, 2040: Poll shows a close race ahead of South Carolina

National Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 19%
Peter Cohen 15%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 20%
Undecided 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
Ro Khanna 17%
Peter Cohen 14%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 30%
Undecided 7%

Michigan Democratic Primary
Peter Cohen 25%
Peter Cohen 15%
Ro Khanna 15%
Brian Schatz 12%
Others 19%
Undecided 15%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses
Ro Khanna 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand 15%
Peter Cohen 10%
Brian Schatz 10%
Others 30%
Undecided 10%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 20%
Peter Cohen 18%
Brian Schatz 18%
Others 15%
Undecided 9%

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LeonelBrizola
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« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2023, 09:31:44 PM »

January 15, 2040: Poll shows a close race ahead of South Carolina

National Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 19%
Peter Cohen 15%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 20%
Undecided 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
Ro Khanna 17%
Peter Cohen 14%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 30%
Undecided 7%

Michigan Democratic Primary
Peter Cohen 25%
Peter Cohen 15%
Ro Khanna 15%
Brian Schatz 12%
Others 19%
Undecided 15%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses
Ro Khanna 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand 15%
Peter Cohen 10%
Brian Schatz 10%
Others 30%
Undecided 10%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 20%
Peter Cohen 18%
Brian Schatz 18%
Others 15%
Undecided 9%


I guess you're a dark horse candidate who is going to defeat Gillibrand for the nomination in an upset. But do not spoil this TL.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2023, 12:15:27 PM »

January 15, 2040: Poll shows a close race ahead of South Carolina

National Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 19%
Peter Cohen 15%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 20%
Undecided 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
Ro Khanna 17%
Peter Cohen 14%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 30%
Undecided 7%

Michigan Democratic Primary
Peter Cohen 25%
Peter Cohen 15%
Ro Khanna 15%
Brian Schatz 12%
Others 19%
Undecided 15%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses
Ro Khanna 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand 15%
Peter Cohen 10%
Brian Schatz 10%
Others 30%
Undecided 10%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 20%
Peter Cohen 18%
Brian Schatz 18%
Others 15%
Undecided 9%


I guess you're a dark horse candidate who is going to defeat Gillibrand for the nomination in an upset. But do not spoil this TL.
Imagine if you becoming president was true, although Gillibrand would be 73 years old at the time. Does "old is gold" tend to go through primary voters' heads since the mid-2010s?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2023, 09:14:25 AM »

If the GOP was locked out of the White House for 16 years, what does SCOTUS look like?


Good question, I honestly didn't think of that lol.
Well, let's put it this way.

Are Roberts, Thomas, or Alito still on the Court?

Did Sotomayor or Kagan retire?
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2023, 07:22:58 PM »

If the GOP was locked out of the White House for 16 years, what does SCOTUS look like?


Good question, I honestly didn't think of that lol.
Well, let's put it this way.

Are Roberts, Thomas, or Alito still on the Court?

Did Sotomayor or Kagan retire?


Everything is the same as it is now.

January 15, 2040: Poll shows a close race ahead of South Carolina

National Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 19%
Peter Cohen 15%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 20%
Undecided 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 18%
Ro Khanna 17%
Peter Cohen 14%
Brian Schatz 14%
Others 30%
Undecided 7%

Michigan Democratic Primary
Peter Cohen 25%
Peter Cohen 15%
Ro Khanna 15%
Brian Schatz 12%
Others 19%
Undecided 15%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses
Ro Khanna 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand 15%
Peter Cohen 10%
Brian Schatz 10%
Others 30%
Undecided 10%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Kirsten Gillibrand 20%
Ro Khanna 20%
Peter Cohen 18%
Brian Schatz 18%
Others 15%
Undecided 9%


I guess you're a dark horse candidate who is going to defeat Gillibrand for the nomination in an upset. But do not spoil this TL.
Imagine if you becoming president was true, although Gillibrand would be 73 years old at the time. Does "old is gold" tend to go through primary voters' heads since the mid-2010s?

We shall see...

As far as age, it's a non-issue.
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2023, 04:48:36 PM »

February 1, 2040: Gillibrand wins South Carolina, I place a close second
COLUMBIA, SC: At 10:30 p.m. with 85% of precincts reporting, Senator Gillibrand won the South Carolina Democratic primary with 27% of the vote. For my part, I won 22%. Congressman Khanna placed third with 15%, followed by Secretary Murphy with 14% and Senator Schatz with 12%. Other candidates had a combined 10%. As it turned out, Nancy Rubenstein's polling had been spot on. We were competitive in the Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston areas, as well as the Charlotte, NC suburbs in York County. In rural counties, I placed 3rd and in some cases, 4th. Our strongest showing came from Richland County, which is where Columbia is located. Exit polls indicated I won amongst college-educated and moderate voters, as well as those citing electability as their top concern. Senator Gillibrand won by running up the score in rural parts of the state and being in 1st or 2nd in every urban or suburban jurisdiction. While she defeated me by a 45%-18% margin with white voters, we tied at 25% with black voters. Of South Carolina's 46 counties, Gillibrand won 25, I won 10, Khanna won 4, Murphy won 4, and Schatz won 3. I carried York, Lancaster, Richland, Fairfield, Lexington, Jasper, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, and Dorchester.
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2023, 08:58:29 PM »

February 9, 2040: Gillibrand narrowly wins New Hampshire, Khanna wins Nevada
NASHUA, NH: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand narrowly won New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary, defeating me and Congressman Ro Khanna by a margin of 25.5%-25.3%-25.2%, respectively. The race was close in virtually every part of the state; Gillibrand was strongest in western portions of the state, Khanna along the coast, and I had a particularly strong showing in suburban Hillsborough County. Khanna did especially well with the youngest and most progressive voters, Gillibrand with rural voters and those over the age of 65, and I won the overwhelming support of independents who voted in the Democratic primary. Senator Brian Schatz placed fourth with 12% of the vote, while other candidates divided the remaining 12%. In Nevada, the story was entirely different. Congressman Khanna easily won the caucuses there, garnering 37% of the vote. Senator Gillibrand placed second with 20%, Senator Schatz won 18%, and I placed 4th with just 10%. Other candidates divided the remaining 15%. Congressman Khanna swept virtually every demographic, geographic, and ideological group.
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« Reply #22 on: August 25, 2023, 08:59:21 PM »

February 10, 2040:
At 6 a.m., I sat down with Rachel, Nancy Rubenstein, Nicole Giordanio, Ying Lee, and Amir Gaines to discuss strategy during our 11.5-hour bus drive from Manchester, New Hampshire to Detriot, Michigan. I would be going on air with a local Michigan television network in Detroit at 9 a.m., followed by a town hall meeting, a speech at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, and several more appearances throughout the day. Over coffee, tea, and waffles we broke down how we felt about the first three contests, what our tracking poll in upcoming states is showing, and media coverage of the campaign. We agreed that South Carolina and New Hampshire went better than expected, but we had an embarrassing showing in Nevada even though we hadn’t invested heavily there. In terms of our internal polling, it was mixed news. In Michigan, we saw some momentum; before South Carolina, I was tied with Senator Gillibrand there. After South Carolina but before New Hampshire and Nevada, I surged ahead to enjoy a 7% lead. Nancy said that her model has independents making up 15% of the primary vote, but any increase in that percentage would help us tremendously. In Florida, Colorado, and Illinois, the race has become increasingly close. Essentially, I had momentum in Michigan while voters in Florida, Colorado, and Illinois are still making up their minds. We agreed that we needed a big win in Michigan to have momentum going forward. In recent weeks, Congressman Khanna began investing more time and money in Michigan. Still, my advantage was time spent there. I made a total of 97 trips to Michigan since March 2039, compared to 30 for Congressman Khanna, 15 for Senator Gillibrand, and 5 for Senator Schatz. Most of the other candidates have focused on South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Illinois. We were cautiously optimistic about Michigan, the question was how to get from there on February 16 to the biggest Super tuesday in history on April 10. We had been in fourth place in fundraising prior to South Carolina, but then we saw a surge in donations after our close 2nd place showing. We made a strategic decision to focus on Colorado and Illinois over Florida. We felt good about our chances in Colorado because of the state’s open primary, and we felt good about Illinois because the party establishment there supports us, and we think my candidacy would be strongest in the Midwest and Southeast. Our problem in Florida was that the party establishment is solidly behind Gillibrand and until recently, we didn’t have the funding to buy air time there. Nationally, the media considers the race a two-way contest between Gillibrand and Khanna, with me being seen as someone who needs a win in Michigan to have a chance at the nomination. Some have also suggested I only take moderate votes away from Gillibrand, though our exit polling shows she does about as well with progressives as with more moderate voters. By the time we reached Michigan, we agreed. We needed a big win in Michigan, ideally, we’d win by at least 7%, and we needed to win one of the three contests on February 23 in order to be competitive on Mini-Tuesday and Super-Tuesday.
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2023, 07:10:45 PM »

February 16, 2040: I sweep the Michigan primary
LANSING, MI: Just half an hour after the polls closed, I was declared the winner in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary. When all the votes were counted, it was a landslide victory; I garnered 52% of the vote and swept all 83 counties in the state. Congressman Khanna won 20% of the vote, followed by Senator Gillibrand with 18%, Senator Schatz with 3%, and the other candidates won 7% combined. I won across almost every ideological, demographic, and geographic group; Congressman Khanna won the most progressive voters and things were competitive in rural counties. My strongest showing came from Oakland County, where I won 60% of the vote, closely followed by a 58% showing in Kent County. I won 70% of the vote in Detriot, 67% in Lansing, 60% in Flint, 57% in Grand Rapids, and 53% in Warren. My weakest county was Luce County in the upper peninsula; I won 37% of the vote there.


At 10:30 p.m., I addressed supporters from my campaign's primary night event in Lansing:

“Thank you, Michigan. I want to begin by thanking the Michigan native I am madly in love with, my wife Rachel Cohen, for all of her support and help in this campaign. I love you, and I know Michigan and America loves you. I want to thank my parents for their efforts in this campaign and for always having my back. I also have to thank all of my friends and of course, my in-laws who let me stay with them on so many visits to this state over the past 10 months. I want to thank Ying Lee, our Campaign Manager nationally, Paul Antonio, our state director here in Michigan, and our entire team for their hard work and attention to detail in helping us secure this win. To our volunteers, the backbone of this campaign, I thank you for putting your heart and soul into our effort, you made all the difference and I will always owe you a debt of gratitude. To the people of Michigan, I thank you for your hospitality, warmth, consideration, and support. My friends, Democrats, and independents here in Michigan sent a powerful message to the pundits who said we couldn’t win. People in this beautiful state that is a microcosm of America delivered us a mandate. In a purple state, we built a broad coalition of support. Voters here are ready to defeat this failed President and usher in a new era of freedom and equality in America. Voters here said they want to restore the American economy for all, advance social justice, get back to the work of confronting climate change, and ensure America leads. We put forward detailed, bold plans to encourage the creation of jobs, save you money, and make sure the safety net works for working families. We have committed to defending a woman’s right to choose, doing more to strengthen gender and racial equality, and making sure Michigan continues to be a leader in the green energy economy. My friends, we didn’t win here tonight because of my ambition to be President. Frankly, when I entered public life, I had no intention of running for this office. But I feel that we need leadership that can get things done, reverse the failed policies of the past four years, and build on the successes of the prior administration so that we can have greater prosperity and progress moving forward. We won because you agree, and we won because we showed up, listened, learned, and offered solutions. As you all know, we held over 100 town hall meetings across Michigan. Now, as this campaign moves forward, it is my intention to continue to not just share my vision for the country, as important as that is, but to also listen and really consider what people are saying. Tomorrow, I will be traveling to Colorado, and later in the week Illinois, ahead of the primaries next week. But I will be back in Michigan in the general election. To listen. To learn. To help you continue to get to know me and what I stand for. And to offer the voters of this state and our country a clean contrast between the President and myself. He believes in lower taxes for the wealthy, I believe in lower taxes for you. He believes we need to slow down how much we are doing to address climate change, I want us to be carbon neutral by 2050. He believes that there is no need for an equal rights amendment, I disagree. And he believes that we spend enough on health care and education, I want to expand Medicaid and funding for education. My friends, I understand the challenges we face. But I’m optimistic that we can address them, unite, and restore a sense of hope and pride in America. We’ve done it before, and we will do it again. Michigan, thank you for all you’ve done for me personally and our campaign. I look forward to coming back here as the nominee of our party. Thank you, and may God bless you all”
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2023, 06:33:57 PM »

February 23, 2040: Illinois, Colorado, and Florida vote
DENVER, CO: Democrats in Illinois, Colorado, and Florida had their say, and the results came down to the wire in two of the three contests. I won a decisive victory in the Illinois Democratic Primary; I won 40% of the vote, followed by Congressman Khanna with 20%, Senator Gillibrand with 19%, and Senator Schatz with 17%. A similar pattern to earlier contests emerged; I performed best in the Chicago metropolitan area while struggling in some rural, downstate counties. Still, I won 80 of 102 counties even as my competitors won 22 rural counties. My strongest showing was in Cook County, where I won 50% of the vote. In Chicago, I won 57% of the votes cast. My worst showing was in Hamilton County; I placed 3rd with 15% of the vote there. Colorado and Florida were a lot closer. In Colorado, I won, but it was a close race with Congressman Khanna. I won 30% of the vote, he won 28%. Senator Gillibrand won 23%, and Senator Schatz garnered 18% support. Unlike in Illinois, Colorado’s urban centers were competitive, especially Denver, where I won by 2,305 votes over Congressman Khanna. I also did poorly in rural areas, it was the suburbs that gave me my victory. My strongest showing was in Weld County, where I won 40% of the vote, while I placed third with just 17% in Lincoln County, my poorest showing in the state. In Florida, we came up short. Senator Gillibrand carried the state with 33% support, I placed second with 30%, Congressman Khanna won 20%, and Senator Schatz won 15%. Senator Gillibrand won by keeping urban centers competitive and running up big numbers in rural Florida. I did best in the southeastern part of the state, while Congressman Khanna did best in the Orlando, Sarasota, and Jacksonville areas. Miami-Dade County was particularly competitive; I placed third there, but only 20,000 votes separated all four candidates. Just north of there in Broward County, I had my best showing. I won 45% of the vote and carried almost every voting precinct.
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