PremiseData: Trump +31; +24 H2H vs. DeSantis, +52 vs. Haley
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  PremiseData: Trump +31; +24 H2H vs. DeSantis, +52 vs. Haley
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Author Topic: PremiseData: Trump +31; +24 H2H vs. DeSantis, +52 vs. Haley  (Read 259 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: March 23, 2023, 09:57:41 AM »

Lines up with other polls. Trump is gaining, DeSantis dropping.

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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2023, 02:21:22 PM »

It's obviously very early, but it's very much possible it won't even be a fight. Republicans want Trump because he represents the base.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2023, 03:35:33 PM »

It's obviously very early, but it's very much possible it won't even be a fight. Republicans want Trump because he represents the base.

The fact that Trump is at 70% in the hypothetical 1v1 against Haley (with Haley at just 18%) really says an awful lot.

It says that a large supermajority of Republican primary voters are just fine with Trump as their nominee and don't see any need for any sort of change of course.

So even if many of those same 70% who back Trump might be willing to at least briefly consider some sort of alternative with a more realistic chance than Haley, such as DeSantis, fundamentally these people are A-ok with nominating Trump yet again.

That means that all Trump has to do is to clear the very low bar of getting just a little bit of momentum, and these 70% or so will jump on board behind him. The task for anyone who wants to oppose Trump is enormous, because by default, he is the presumptive nominee and leader of the Republican party, and most Republicans have absolutely no problem with that.

There is just no base of support for a non-Trump candidate, Republican primary voters are just not looking for someone else.
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