Never was an incumbent prez in a year that ended with -4 defeated

[Sir Mohamed]

Since we're talking about historic parallels here, it's perhaps also worth noting that never in an election year ending with a four - which is the case every 20 years - a sitting prez was defeated. Each election year ending with a 4 that had an incumbent on ballot, he was either reelected to a full 4-year 2nd term (4th for FDR) or elected for a full term. That was even in most elections ending with a 4: 1804, 1864, 1904, 1924, 1944, 1964, 1984 and 2004. No election ending with 4 since 4 was an open seat either. Only 1824, 1844 and 1884 were open seats either.

So Biden could very well continue to pattern for another 20 years.

[TwinGeeks99]

Historical trends always continue until they don't. There was the Curse of Tippecanoe, which stated that presidents who were elected in years ending in 0 ended up dying in office. That applied up until JFK, when Reagan and then Bush Jr. ended up breaking the curse.

[emailking]

It's interesting but I think just a coincidence.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's interesting but I think just a coincidence.

Yeah, probably is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not gonna lose anyways

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The last Presidential election that ended in a 4 broke the pattern of a new political era every 36 years (1789,1824,1860,1896,1932,1968)

[OSR stands with Israel]

The last Presidential election that ended in a 4 broke the pattern of a new political era every 36 years (1789,1824,1860,1896,1932,1968)

Well you could argue that 1980 was the start of a new era and not 1968 as the 1970s were still a pretty liberal decade overal while the 1980s 1990s and 2000s were definitely more conservatives ones

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's nice and all, and surely I want to see that pattern continue, but as others have said everything is true until it's not. Let's remember how many bellwethers lost that status in the 2020 election and how 2022 was supposed to be a red wave. We're in somewhat politically unprecedented times.

[Mr. Smith]

Obama is the first Pres since Grant to be re-elected and govern through a year that ended in a "2".

[Vice President Christian Man]

Obama is the first Pres since Grant to be re-elected and govern through a year that ended in a "2".

Nixon did as well

[Pericles]

Historical trends always continue until they don't. There was the Curse of Tippecanoe, which stated that presidents who were elected in years ending in 0 ended up dying in office. That applied up until JFK, when Reagan and then Bush Jr. ended up breaking the curse.

The other thing about that is Reagan came very close in 1981 to being killed and extending the curse, who knows how long it would have lasted with US politics going in such a different direction.

[Mr. Smith]

Obama is the first Pres since Grant to be re-elected and govern through a year that ended in a "2".

Nixon did as well

He didn't finish though, he resigned.