Why is Louisiana losing population compared to other red states?

[Skill and Chance]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

I did not know the 1600s-1800s were colder than usual

I knew about the Little Ice Age, I didn't know it lasted so long

Yes, abnormally cold anywhere within ~1000 miles of the Atlantic.  The Thames, Seine, and Dutch canals were reliably freezing over in an average winter during that period, reliably enough that cities planned ice festivals around it.  Colonial American winters also appear to have been colder than today, especially in New England.  Further south, there is a report of a wide point in the James River freezing over at a fort near Jamestown in 1608.  This has happened in modern times, but apparently only twice during the 20th century (1918 and 1977).  In general, lots of negative Fahrenheit temperatures show up in surprising places in the South as weather monitoring got more scientific in the late 19th century. 

That's not to say it was unrecognizably cold in a consistent way.  A major campaign in the Civil War was impacted by a march through thick mud after series of heavy rainstorms in January in Northern Virginia. Still, around 200 years ago was likely the coldest and driest eastern North America got in 1000 years.  So there was plenty of variability and modern conditions were within range, but the odds of getting an arctic shot like Christmas 2022 to produce a hard freeze on the Gulf Coast in any given winter would have been considerably higher.  And the odds of a record-breaking flood considerably lower.  Snow is more complicated due to lower precipitation back then. 

[Pres Mike]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

I did not know the 1600s-1800s were colder than usual

I knew about the Little Ice Age, I didn't know it lasted so long

Yes, abnormally cold anywhere within ~1000 miles of the Atlantic.  The Thames, Seine, and Dutch canals were reliably freezing over in an average winter during that period, reliably enough that cities planned ice festivals around it.  Colonial American winters also appear to have been colder than today, especially in New England.  Further south, there is a report of a wide point in the James River freezing over at a fort near Jamestown in 1608.  This has happened in modern times, but apparently only twice during the 20th century (1918 and 1977).  In general, lots of negative Fahrenheit temperatures show up in surprising places in the South as weather monitoring got more scientific in the late 19th century. 

That's not to say it was unrecognizably cold in a consistent way.  A major campaign in the Civil War was impacted by a march through thick mud after series of heavy rainstorms in January in Northern Virginia. Still, around 200 years ago was likely the coldest and driest eastern North America got in 1000 years.  So there was plenty of variability and modern conditions were within range, but the odds of getting an arctic shot like Christmas 2022 to produce a hard freeze on the Gulf Coast in any given winter would have been considerably higher.  And the odds of a record-breaking flood considerably lower.  Snow is more complicated due to lower precipitation back then. 

This is why I love this website. You learn super interesting things outside of politics. Thank you! Very interesting and enlightening

Do you think extreme weather in the 21st century will impact human migration in the US? I have yet to notice

The sunbelt is growing rapidly. Tennessee, my home state, is booming. Yet this summer was 110 degree heat index from May-September. Which seems unusually extreme, but was similar to 2022 and 2021. It’s only getting hotter

[Del Tachi]

New Orleans is not the only city that floods.  New York, Charleston, Miami, Norfolk, and even many inland cities (i.e., Omaha) are at higher annual risk of flooding than New Orleans. 

A Category 4 hurricane hit New Orleans in 2021 and the city didn't flood. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

New Orleans is not the only city that floods.  New York, Charleston, Miami, Norfolk, and even many inland cities (i.e., Omaha) are at higher annual risk of flooding than New Orleans.  

A Category 4 hurricane hit New Orleans in 2021 and the city didn't flood.  

Yes but those cities have reasons for people to come back. New Orleans is still recovering from Katrina. Though I will say parts Charleston are becoming perennial flooders.

[Brittain33]

New Orleans is not the only city that floods.  New York, Charleston, Miami, Norfolk, and even many inland cities (i.e., Omaha) are at higher annual risk of flooding than New Orleans. 

A Category 4 hurricane hit New Orleans in 2021 and the city didn't flood. 

Those cities flood, but the water drains away (for now, in Miami.) New Orleans is unique in being below sea level and sinking.

[Samof94]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

I did not know the 1600s-1800s were colder than usual

I knew about the Little Ice Age, I didn't know it lasted so long

Yes, abnormally cold anywhere within ~1000 miles of the Atlantic.  The Thames, Seine, and Dutch canals were reliably freezing over in an average winter during that period, reliably enough that cities planned ice festivals around it.  Colonial American winters also appear to have been colder than today, especially in New England.  Further south, there is a report of a wide point in the James River freezing over at a fort near Jamestown in 1608.  This has happened in modern times, but apparently only twice during the 20th century (1918 and 1977).  In general, lots of negative Fahrenheit temperatures show up in surprising places in the South as weather monitoring got more scientific in the late 19th century. 

That's not to say it was unrecognizably cold in a consistent way.  A major campaign in the Civil War was impacted by a march through thick mud after series of heavy rainstorms in January in Northern Virginia. Still, around 200 years ago was likely the coldest and driest eastern North America got in 1000 years.  So there was plenty of variability and modern conditions were within range, but the odds of getting an arctic shot like Christmas 2022 to produce a hard freeze on the Gulf Coast in any given winter would have been considerably higher.  And the odds of a record-breaking flood considerably lower.  Snow is more complicated due to lower precipitation back then. 

This is why I love this website. You learn super interesting things outside of politics. Thank you! Very interesting and enlightening

Do you think extreme weather in the 21st century will impact human migration in the US? I have yet to notice

The sunbelt is growing rapidly. Tennessee, my home state, is booming. Yet this summer was 110 degree heat index from May-September. Which seems unusually extreme, but was similar to 2022 and 2021. It’s only getting hotter

Arizona will likely eventually lose population.

[Pres Mike]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

I did not know the 1600s-1800s were colder than usual

I knew about the Little Ice Age, I didn't know it lasted so long

Yes, abnormally cold anywhere within ~1000 miles of the Atlantic.  The Thames, Seine, and Dutch canals were reliably freezing over in an average winter during that period, reliably enough that cities planned ice festivals around it.  Colonial American winters also appear to have been colder than today, especially in New England.  Further south, there is a report of a wide point in the James River freezing over at a fort near Jamestown in 1608.  This has happened in modern times, but apparently only twice during the 20th century (1918 and 1977).  In general, lots of negative Fahrenheit temperatures show up in surprising places in the South as weather monitoring got more scientific in the late 19th century. 

That's not to say it was unrecognizably cold in a consistent way.  A major campaign in the Civil War was impacted by a march through thick mud after series of heavy rainstorms in January in Northern Virginia. Still, around 200 years ago was likely the coldest and driest eastern North America got in 1000 years.  So there was plenty of variability and modern conditions were within range, but the odds of getting an arctic shot like Christmas 2022 to produce a hard freeze on the Gulf Coast in any given winter would have been considerably higher.  And the odds of a record-breaking flood considerably lower.  Snow is more complicated due to lower precipitation back then. 

This is why I love this website. You learn super interesting things outside of politics. Thank you! Very interesting and enlightening

Do you think extreme weather in the 21st century will impact human migration in the US? I have yet to notice

The sunbelt is growing rapidly. Tennessee, my home state, is booming. Yet this summer was 110 degree heat index from May-September. Which seems unusually extreme, but was similar to 2022 and 2021. It’s only getting hotter

Arizona will likely eventually lose population.

From lack of water? I've heard that

But what about Texas and Tennessee? Water is the enemy here. High humidty makes it feel 20 degrees higher. An 88 degree day can feel 100. 95? Basically unlivingable, which is what we experienced this Summer

[TDAS04]

Prone to frequent natural disasters. No pleasant weather/scenery drawing retirees or second home buyers or remote work types.

I'm surprised that New Orleans hasn't marketed itself as a center of culture and urban life in the South although there aren't many companies with offices in New Orleans so it would be harder to do so.

Actually, they have. Quite a bit. Try googling "New Orleans" along with such words as "culture" and "urban" and "South." The people of New Orleans are not shy about talking about how great (they say) their city is. And the marketing for NOLA has been pretty successful, considering how many people (mistakenly) believe the city is the home of Cajun food. New Orleans is still one the more famous tourist cities in the US, and the city continues to host a disproportionate number of super bowls, conventions, and other such events for a metro of its size.

But, the place probably has nowhere to go now but down.

[Del Tachi]

Prone to frequent natural disasters. No pleasant weather/scenery drawing retirees or second home buyers or remote work types.

I'm surprised that New Orleans hasn't marketed itself as a center of culture and urban life in the South although there aren't many companies with offices in New Orleans so it would be harder to do so.

Actually, they have. Quite a bit. Try googling "New Orleans" along with such words as "culture" and "urban" and "South." The people of New Orleans are not shy about talking about how great (they say) their city is. And the marketing for NOLA has been pretty successful, considering how many people (mistakenly) believe the city is the home of Cajun food. New Orleans is still one the more famous tourist cities in the US, and the city continues to host a disproportionate number of super bowls, conventions, and other such events for a metro of its size.

But, the place probably has nowhere to go now but down.

Indeed.  New Orleans get 20M visitors per year, with about 6M-8M of that being in the four weeks leading up to Mardi Gras (it's more than a single day!)  That gives New Orleans about the same number of annual visitors as San Francisco (22M) or Boston (19M) despite being a much smaller city with way less business activity.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Does climate change have any impact on car insurance rates? Louisiana has some of the highest.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does climate change have any impact on car insurance rates? Louisiana has some of the highest.

Potentially? I don’t know as much about the interplay between weather and car insurance but I think it does have an impact. For example Colorado has the most hail damage and thus the most hail damage claims for cars. I know when there’s heavy rain some people’s cars (be it by chance or by driving it into water) get damaged from flooding. This happened with my cousin in the most recent storm in SC.

[ottermax]

Does climate change have any impact on car insurance rates? Louisiana has some of the highest.

Potentially? I don’t know as much about the interplay between weather and car insurance but I think it does have an impact. For example Colorado has the most hail damage and thus the most hail damage claims for cars. I know when there’s heavy rain some people’s cars (be it by chance or by driving it into water) get damaged from flooding. This happened with my cousin in the most recent storm in SC.

Louisiana also is one of the highest crime incidence states in the country.

[Del Tachi]

Does climate change have any impact on car insurance rates? Louisiana has some of the highest.

Marginally.  Your vehicle is more likely to get flooded or damaged in a storm down here.  But the one thing states with high auto insurance rates have in common is this:  lots of uninsured drivers.

[satsuma]

No large, distinguished research universities. Best school in the state is Tulane which isn't big enough or STEM-focused enough to have big economic knock-on effects like software or biotech firms. LSU is a football fan club whose members occasionally attend classes.

I don't think Louisiana is a laggard in higher ed relative to its other neighbors. It only looks bad because it's right next to Texas, with its oil-rich Longhorns, Aggies, and Rice. Louisiana is unusual in that it even has Tulane, maybe 5th in prestigious Southern private universities? Also 3 med schools, 3 law schools and a biomedical research center. But I do get the impression that Tulane attracts students from far away who aren't interested in remaining nearby after graduation.

As a contrast, Idaho is #1 on net migration per capita. Its main 3 public universities are not nationally prominent and it has the Mormon safety school as its top private university, but Boise gets considered an emerging tech hub, because any techies moving there are already college-educated. A state that attracts young / mid-career adult migration has basically outsourced its workforce education to wherever they came from.

Does climate change have any impact on car insurance rates? Louisiana has some of the highest.

Marginally.  Your vehicle is more likely to get flooded or damaged in a storm down here.  But the one thing states with high auto insurance rates have in common is this:  lots of uninsured drivers.

Yeah I've paid auto insurance in both Louisiana and Texas. The Louisiana rates are much higher. A perfect driver there probably pays as much as a bad driver elsewhere. The state's higher rates of crime, crashes, lawsuits, and so on, those don't help. With fair warning, most people are likely to drive their cars out of the state to evacuate, but something like Hurricane Harvey hovering over Houston flooded so many cars. I rode that one out at my workplace and it was a close call.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seawalls also aren’t a solution to climate change issues, because a sea wall in one place means worse impacts somewhere else.

This is true.

[Skill and Chance]

Seawalls also aren’t a solution to climate change issues, because a sea wall in one place means worse impacts somewhere else.

This is true.

The percentage of the entire country's coastline made up of dense human settlements is low.  Generating bigger wetlands elsewhere could even be a net positive for offsetting some climate change. 

[Del Tachi]

Hmmm... for a very long time in the 18th and 19th centuries, New Orleans was the only large city in the South.  However, it basically didn't participate in the post-WWII Southern boom at all, so the state has taken on much more of a Rust Belt character than the rest of the South.  New Orleans has a slightly lower population now than it did in 1920!  Meanwhile, Houston popped up seemingly out of nowhere and overtook New Orleans by 5X even at the metro area scale, which includes the suburban areas of NOLA that actually have grown over time.

In theory, New Orleans should be one of the largest cities in the country, and it used to be one.  The big question is what went wrong?

That can be answered with one word.

Katrina

Eh, it's more complicated than that:

New Orleans was never destined to become a Sun Belt "megacity" because its geography severely limits the potential for sprawl.  The city lies on what was until very recently a malarial swamp and is surrounded by water on all sides.  Developable land is a rarity here, which makes auto-dependent exurban development quite a bit more unprofitable than in Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, etc. (it does support better density than most cities our size, though)

The decline of New Orleans also has a lot to do with the international oil glut of the 1980s and how it hurt Louisiana oil investment/jobs.  Houston had since the 1940s been gaining on New Orleans as the center of the global energy industry, so when the layoffs started it made more sense for the oil companies to consolidate their business operations in Houston.  Texas was more attractive because it had no state income tax, better schools/universities, and less corruption; Louisiana has had a 6% state income tax on incomes above $50k for decades. 

Even though many energy companies still have a majority of their wells, shipyards and employees in Louisiana, all of the business activity is now in Houston.  Exxon Mobil moved the last of their execs/business analysts from New Orleans to Houston in 2003, and Shell has cut something like 80% of its New Orleans corporate workforce since 2005.